Aurthur Blank is at it again. He is making noise about wanting a new stadium for the Atlanta Falcons to play in. And to that extent, I have no issue with it...
But he seems to think it is the responsibility of the taxpayers to pick up the tab. Why? What responsibility do the taxpayers have to fund the business locations for private businesses? The Falcons are arguing that the need more luxury suites in order to increase revenue... Ok.
The State of Georgia will only barely be at the end of paying for the Georgia Dome when Blank wants another one... 2015.
But that doesn't matter... What matters is that there shouldn't even be a question. If the Falcons want a new stadium, make a business case for it, go out and get the money... and BUILD IT. But don't get the money from taxpayers, get the money yourselves.
Has Road Atlanta or Atlanta Motor Speedway taken hundreds of millions of dollars from the state to build new facilities? No... Even though there are more tickets sold for TWO weekends at AMS than for a season of Falcons football. Road Atlanta hosts 320,000+ fans each year... One could certainly make a case that they have a significant economic impact on Hampton and Braselton, GA.
Sports teams don't have a right to taxpayer money... They are business franchises, and as such should be responsible for their own venues... Just like ANY other business.
The market is in a state of change. And things are in a state of flux for the next few months... and depending on what happens with the First Time Home Buyer Tax Credit, maybe longer.
Inventories are dropping and sales are rising... September numbers:
Absorption rates are a good way to gauge market direction in both short and long terms. It measures the number of months it would take to absorb all of the current inventory if sales remained constant and no more homes came on the market. In general, maintaining about 6 months of home inventory is considered balanced.
Averaging the last three months of sales, there is about 8.5 months of inventory. Last year at this time we had 13.4 months of inventory using the three month average.
Using the last six months of sales, there is about 9.0 months of inventory. Last year we were looking at 13.2 months under the six month average.
The long term measure utilizes an average of twelve months of sales. With the long term look-back, I see 10.6 months of inventory. Last year was 14.6 month of inventory averaged over the past year's sales.
What does that mean?
From the Absorption Rates, I can tell several things. The market has been improving over the last few months. Each shorter time frame lowers the inventory lag. The market is MUCH better than last year at the same time, and last year the market had started a turn... but also started a seasonal downturn that we don't seem to be seeing yet this year. Finally, the market still has a distance to go before it is really balanced.
Combining this with the above data tells me that Gwinnett County has seen most of its improvements because of a lower supply, not an increased demand. Despite incredibly low rates and reasonable prices, buyers aren't jumping in to the market in higher numbers...
But...
There is an anomaly. When we start breaking the sales up by price, we see that entry level homes ARE selling at increased rates, while being offset by continued slackness in the higher end homes. This would be due to the $8000 First Time Home Buyer Tax Credit. It IS pushing sales of entry level homes, typically in the "under $150,000" price arena. But there are very few first time buyers looking in the $500,000 range.
The problem is that most of the sales to first timers are sales that would have likely happened next year anyway... which means that the tax credit, if continued, would lose effectiveness. But, if the credit isn't continued, the drop in sales will be more precipitous in December.
If you are an entry level buyer, and haven't found your house yet, the chances of getting closed before November 30th are pretty slim. But don't despair, you might be able to find the house you want for less money in December or January.
If you are a seller with an entry level home, things might start looking ugly... now. If the property isn't under contract, don't hold your breath. Right now it is taking 30 days to close buyers with excellent credit and perfect properties. Most first time buyers have some sort of issue that needs correction prior to closing.
The real test...
Will be the December numbers. I expect to see November come in with a HEALTHY increase. Nov. 2008 saw 376 sales, and I think that will be in the range of double for Nov. 2009. December 2008 had 503 sales... I'm looking for half of that if the tax credit goes away.
If sales come in higher in December and/or approach 370 (which was the number for January, 2009) in January, 2010, then we are on the road to recovery... I'm not expecting that.
Have you heard about Fusion 41? Ford is grabbing a handful of social media and leveraging it to promote the 2010 Ford Fusion.
I'll give you the link to check out the contest. It is pretty cool. Go buy a 2010 Fusion, grab a few friends and have some fun. BTW, I'll be happy to be on a team if you have the car...
;^ )
from LaneBailey.com
My son's Kindergarten teacher and some of his classmates families gathers this morning at the Movie Tavern at Northlake Festival in Tucker. It is right by Northlake Mall... look for the giant tower in the parking lot.
The reason for the gathering was Flapjacks and Flicks (pdf) and Where the Wild Things Are...
On the menu is a drink and unlimited pancakes... The price is reasonable... considering the breakfast involved. We each had a couple of plates of pancakes (3 pancakes a plate), and a fairly big soft drink. The pancakes were pretty good.
Now, I am a "popcorn and barrel of Coke" kind of guy when it comes to a movie... but I also haven't been doing a lot of 9:00am movies. It was a great experience... and the 5 year old was pretty calm... I'll take that as a testament to his full belly.
My suggestions, get there a little early. This will allow you to get an extra serving or two of pancakes, if so desired. We ordered just before the movie started and got our flapjacks about 20 minutes into the flick.
Check the movie schedule... grab some breakfast during a movie.
That's right. There are only two weeks left before Social Media Breakfast Atlanta returns to Gwinnett County.
Get together with other Atlanta area business owners, entreprenuers and social networkers to talk about ways to more effectively leverage social media for business... over breakfast.
We will be meeting at the Suwanee location of the Atlanta Bread Company at 8:00am on October 29th. The address is:
Atlanta Bread Company
3320 Lawrenceville Suwanee Rd NE
Suwanee, GA
It is at the corner of Lawrenceville Suwanee Rd and Satellite Blvd. And of course they have some great rolls to kick off the morning with...
We'd LOVE for you to join us if you are in the area. We'll have a few minutes of networking before we start the discussion at 8:30 or so. And there will be some more time to network after the discussion.
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Specializing in properties in Lilburn, Gwinnett County, Lake Lanier, cool garage properties, and "hobby" properties. Twitter: @LaneBailey or @Lilburn LaneBaileyCarGuy on FaceBook
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