Larry Bailey

What is another 800,000 or so…

The job market lost 820,000 jobs last month. Well not exactly last month. This number included the 'adjustment of statistics' for the past year. In this column we will not get into how the government miscounts so badly. However, we will point out that it just makes the deep recession we are coming out of even deeper. Eventually we must replace all of these jobs and we have dug ourselves quite a hole to climb out of. Certainly this makes the jobs programs proposed by the Administration more likely to become law as the next phase of stimulus kicks into gear.

And certainly, the fact that there would be such a significant adjustment is one reason the stock market became so volatile this week. Thursday was particularly brutal, especially when we mixed in concerns about the debt of foreign governments. When you remove this big adjustment, the numbers for January were not all that bad. The loss of 20,000 jobs is not positive, but it still is much better than the hundreds of thousands of jobs we were losing just a few quarters ago. However, it is still a long way from recovering from seven million jobs lost. This does help by way of the fact that it takes some of the upward pressure off of rates, oil prices and other commodities, at least in the short-run

The FHA-backed 203(k) rehab loan is an increasingly popular option in today’s market because so many available properties, especially foreclosures, are in need of repair. A streamlined 203(k) provides money to pay for improvements such as a new roof, appliances, furnace, energy-efficient windows, and cosmetic improvements like carpet, paint, and remodeled kitchens and baths. The maximum loan available is $417,000 (Burlington County NJ) and allows you to use 110% of the "After-Improved" value for Lending Purposes.

The buyer must put down 3.5 percent of the acquisition. At closing, the seller is paid and the remaining money goes into an escrow account to pay for repairs. A licensed contractor must complete the work within six months. Some lenders allow the borrower to do minor cosmetic work like painting themselves. Source: Minneapolis-St. Paul Star-Tribune

Green market research firm SBI Energy forecasts that in the next five years, the market for energy-efficient home renovation products will grow 15 percent, 50 percent faster than the renovations market as a whole. According to the report, the energy-efficient market will reach $35 billion and claim 15 percent of all home renovation dollars spent. 'The growth will come as a result of the tax credits, new incentives, and the reality that more agencies and utilities are promoting the fact that adding improved energy efficiency is the most cost-effective way to decrease home utility bills,' says Norman Deschamps, author and SBI Energy analyst. Source: SBI Reports

Falling prices for real estate and the declining value of the dollar are luring investors from all over the world to purchase properties for as little as half what they might have paid four years ago. 'This could be a once-in-a-generation opportunity for real estate investment,' says Arthur Wong, whose Calgary, Alberta-based U.S. Real Estate Fund has invested $5 million in properties in the U.S. Southwest and plans to buy millions more. Buyers from countries like Brazil, Canada, France, and the Netherlands, whose currencies are particularly strong against the dollar, are spending millions on luxury condos in New York City, Las Vegas, and Miami. Foreign buyers also find the warm climates of California, Texas, and Arizona attractive. Peter Zalewski, a principal with Miami-based Condo Vultures, says he has sold foreign condo buyers seven bulk deals in downtown Miami alone, with investors coming from Argentina, Canada, Colombia, Italy, Norway, and Venezuela. Source: MSNB

Thu, Mar 12 - 5:00 PM ET
Market Wrap: Our benchmark 4.5% mortgage bond rallied for the 2nd consecutive day gaining 22bp to close at $101.19 while the stock market enjoyed its first 3-day rally since Jan. 26-28. The day's news drove both markets higher for different reasons. For bonds, mixed economic news and a successful $11 billion auction in re-opened 30-year Treasury bonds led the way higher. Retail Sales initially weighed on bond prices following a stronger than expected reading of -0.1% in February vs. a consensus estimate for a -0.4% drop. Also, January's Retail Sales were revised to a higher 1.8% gain from an initially reported gain of 1.0%. After factoring out the effect of declining auto sales, Retail Sales had a gain of 0.7% vs. a forecast of 0.2% for February. However, weekly Jobless Claims allowed bonds to recover after showing continuing weakness in the labor market with an increase of 9,000 claims to 654,000. The four-week moving average for those claims increased by 6,750 to 650,000, the highest average in 27 years. Continuing jobless claims jumped by 193,000 to 5.32 million claims with the four-week moving average for these claims climbing by 124,250 to 5.14 million, both record high levels. The $11 billion 30-year auction exceeded expectations with a solid 2.40 bid to cover ratio and a better 46.2% level of foreign buying. In addition to the positive Retail Sales data, the catalyst for stocks was a less than feared cut in GE's credit rating by Standard & Poor's. GE's credit rating was taken down a peg due to problems with GE Financial but investors had feared a worse cut. Hearings before the House Financial Services subcommittee on mark-to-market accounting also lent support to stocks. Congressional leaders threatened to take corrective action if the SEC and Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) doesn't get off of their derrieres and enact more flexible accounting guidance. FASB Chairman Robert Herz told committee members that FASB could offer 'guidance in three weeks.' The Dow advanced 239 points to close at 7,169 while the broader S&P 500 Index reclaimed 29 points to end at 750. The NASDAQ Composite Index added 54 points to finish at 1,426.

4:26 PM ET - The NY Fed purchases $27B in MBS from Mar 5 through Mar 11 bringing the total to $217B since the program began.

4:02 PM ET - Don't look now but a three day rally in Stocks are in the books. The Dow is up 237 points at the close. S&P 500 at 750 up nearly 30 points led by surging shares of GE and the financial sector.

3:47 PM ET - Crude ends at $47.03/barrel up $4.70.

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Tue, Feb 17 - 1:52 PM ET
U.S. homebuilder sentiment surprisingly rose in February but were still near all-time lows. The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index sqeeked out a 1 point gain to 9 from the record low of 8.

12:26 PM ET - Equity markets still under considerable pressure pushing dollars into the safe haven of the debt markets. The Dow is off 285 points while the 4.5% MBS is higher by 44bp.

9:50 AM ET - MBS trading higher as Stocks near low levels hit back in late November. NY Empire Index plummets to record low of -34.65. Treasuries soaring as investors seek safe haven. Oil falling by $2.50 at $35/barrel as demand wanes.

8:15 AM ET - Global stocks drop on continued fears of a worldwide recession will continue. Stock futures plunging here in the U.S. Treasuries advance the most in a week as investors seek safe havens. Oil falls to $36.61/barrel down 88 cents. MBS not yet open.