|
Type of Refinance
|
Maximum LTV
|
UFMIP[1]
|
|
Rate-and-Term
|
97.75%
|
1.75%
|
|
FHA-to-FHA Streamline w/Appraisal
|
97.75%
|
1.50%
|
|
FHA-to-FHA Streamline w/o Appraisal
|
n/a (see below)
|
1.50%
|
|
Cash-Out Refinances
|
95% and 85%
|
1.75%
|
Fri, Dec 19 - 10:35 AM ET
President Bush announces a $13.4B loan to GM and Chrysler. Stocks higher after the news. MBS taking a breather after a sharp eun higher in recent weeks.
8:35 AM ET - MBS slightly lower this morning with no economic data due for release. Quadruple witching occurs in the equity markets today so volatility should be rampant. Oil at $34.94.
Current Trend Direction: Sideways
Risks favor: Carefully Floating
Current Price of FNMA 4.5% Bond: $101.44, -38bp
Surprise, surprise...volatility will once again be the key word on Wall Street today, as "quadruple witching" day occurs in the Stock markets. Quadruple witching, which happens four times a year, is the simultaneous expiration of market index futures, market index options, stock options, and stock futures. As Traders rush to unwind positions, Stock prices have the potential to bounce around rather sharply. This volatility has already extended to Mortgage Bonds, as Bond prices have also been jostled around quite a bit in the first hours of trading. It should be noted that on the Monday following a quadruple witching, securities prices often times move in the opposite direction from where they headed Friday.
There are no economic reports set for release today - but there was some big news from Japan. The Bank of Japan trimmed their benchmark interest rate from 0.3% to 0.1%, and unveiled a series of new steps to pump more money into the financial system to ease an emerging credit crunch among Japanese companies. Japan doesn't have much more room to cut rates at these levels, so it will be interesting to see how this stimulus impacts their financial markets.
The auto industry finally received some relief this morning, as President Bush just announced a deal that GM and Chrysler are going to receive $13.4B in government loans to keep operating in exchange for a restructuring. Ford has more cash on hand than the other two, and has said it should be able to avoid tapping into federal dollars unless weak auto sales continue longer than expected into 2009. Auto stocks are higher on the news, and this is providing a lift, as well as a sigh of relief to the entire Stock market.
Hopefully, you have taken advantage of the recent alerts and avoided the price erosion as Bonds seem to have tired out a bit since the move higher earlier this week. Don't you remember we built this rally on weak economic news, talks of the Fed purchasing Mortgage Bonds and rock and roll :)...and those factors have not changed, which bode well longer-term.
Again on new transactions, we recommend floating and here's why...prices do have support just beneath current levels and we feel there is a good chance prices could move higher on our aforementioned quadruple witching reversal theory.
Current Trend Direction: Higher
Risks favor: Floating
Current Price of FNMA 5% Bond: $101.62, -3bp
The Job Market continues to struggle. Initial Jobless Claims were reported at 554,000, near expectations, but still a bad number. The four-week average of Claims rose 2,750 to 543,750 - the highest level since December 1982. And the four-week average of continuing Claims rose 92,000 to 4.23 million -- the highest since January 1983. Mortgage Bonds have had little reaction to the release.
Leading Economic Indicators and the Philadelphia Fed Index are due out a little later, but unless these reports really miss the mark - there may not due much to influence the market.
Oil is now trading at $38.64 - wow. This should translate to some nice prices at the pump. It is really amazing how people were saying Oil was going to be $200 a barrel. Now we are hearing forecasts of possibly $25 a barrel. Still, the longer-term view for Oil will likely be much higher...it is just a matter of time.
Hopefully, you locked on yesterday's alert and missed the sudden price erosion, but on new transactions, let try and float and see if Bonds can regain their footing and move higher again.
Wed, Dec 17 - 5:00 PM ET
Market Wrap: Our benchmark FNMA 4.5% bond fell 28bp to close at $101.66 while trading within an expanded 137bp intra-day range. The bond showed early upward momentum following yesterday's huge rally but fell to profit taking later in the session as volatility picked up. Mortgage bonds have a history of spiking higher on significant Fed rate cuts only to temporarily sell off in the days that follow. The financial markets spent most of the day pondering future outcomes of the Fed's latest monetary policy. Commercial banks responded by immediately dropping their prime lending rate by 75bp to 3.25%, the lowest rate in over 50 years. This will help millions of business and consumer borrowers. The Fed has also offered to lend up to $200 billion to support securities backing car loans, credit card loans, and student loans. Another expected outcome is lower mortgage rates. Conventional 30-year mortgage rates may fall to around 4.50% from their current average level of 5.47% in the months ahead. The 3-month U.S. dollar LIBOR rate fell to 1.58% from 1.85% yesterday following the Fed's rate cut. Before the credit crisis hit, the 3-month U.S. dollar LIBOR usually traded within 50bp of the official Fed funds rate. We'll know the credit crisis has fully eased when this 50bp relationship has been restored. Stock prices swung back and forth between positive and negative territory before finishing lower. Morgan Stanley reported larger than expected losses of $2.30 billion in the fiscal 4th quarter vs. estimates for a loss of $298 million. Morgan Stanley's earnings troubles along with those of Goldman Sachs $2.12 billion loss posted yesterday weighed on the stock market as traders are quick to sell rallies to lock in profits during this bear market. The Dow fell 99 points to close at 8,824 while the broader S&P 500 Index retreated 8 points to end at 904. The NASDAQ Composite Index gave back 10 points to finish at 1,579.
3:15 PM ET - Crude futures settle at $40.06/barrel down $3.54.
2:22 PM ET - Investors and traders take some chips off the table and cash in. MBS at session lows. Stocks move into the black. Oil retreats to $40.72/barrel down $2.88.
11:34 AM ET - Things don't go straight up. MBS fall from earlier highs. Alert To Lock!
9:30 AM ET - OPEC to cut production by record levels but oil drops to $43.15/barrel down 54 cents.
8:30 AM ET - MBS near unchanged after yesterday's huge rally. Morgan Stanley's 3rd quarter earnings lower than estimates. Stock futures falling.
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