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Larry Bailey

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MBS fall to near their worst levels of the day. Alert To Lock!

12-05-08
Larry Bailey
Fri, Dec 05 - 1:23 PM ET MBS fall to near their worst levels of the day. Alert To Lock! 11:13 AM ET - Stocks fall after the weak jobs data - the Dow down 200 points. Oil continues to drop like a rock, now under $42. MBS slightly lower and look to be taking a breather after the huge rally that has recently occurred. 9:30 AM ET - MBS unchanged despite the weak data. Stocks open lower. Oil falls below $43/barrel. 8:36 AM ET - Non-farm payrolls fall by a whopping 533,000. It's only the fourth time in the past 58 years that payrolls have fallen by more than 500,000 in a month. 8:12 AM ET - Oil near unchanged at $43.50/barrel. 8:02 AM ET - Tick, Tick, Tick... Jobs report at 8:30am ET. 10 Yr T Note flat. MBS not yet open. Stock futures slightly lower.
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MBS fall to near their worst levels of the day. Alert To Lock!

12-05-08
Larry Bailey
Fri, Dec 05 - 1:23 PM ET MBS fall to near their worst levels of the day. Alert To Lock! 11:13 AM ET - Stocks fall after the weak jobs data - the Dow down 200 points. Oil continues to drop like a rock, now under $42. MBS slightly lower and look to be taking a breather after the huge rally that has recently occurred. 9:30 AM ET - MBS unchanged despite the weak data. Stocks open lower. Oil falls below $43/barrel. 8:36 AM ET - Non-farm payrolls fall by a whopping 533,000. It's only the fourth time in the past 58 years that payrolls have fallen by more than 500,000 in a month. 8:12 AM ET - Oil near unchanged at $43.50/barrel. 8:02 AM ET - Tick, Tick, Tick... Jobs report at 8:30am ET. 10 Yr T Note flat. MBS not yet open. Stock futures slightly lower.
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Market Update Friday December 5, 2008 10:12am ET

12-05-08
Larry Bailey
Current Trend Direction: Sideways Risks favor: Carefully Floating, but be prepared to Lock later today Current Price of FNMA 5.5% Bond: $101.84, +3bp The markets were prepared for a bad Jobs Report this morning, but the results were far worse than expected. The November Jobs Report showed a loss of 533,000 jobs. These losses were much steeper than any expectations, and represented the biggest loss in 35 years. It was only the fourth time in 58 years that our economy lost over 500,000 jobs. But as we've been saying for a long time, the situation in the job market was much more bleak than being represented in the numbers, due to the birth-death ratio, meaning the number of business that have either been created or gone under. Finally, the numbers are starting to show the real picture. Adding pain to the Report were heavy downward revisions for September and October, which erased an additional 199,000 jobs. The unemployment rate ticked up to 6.7%, the highest since October of 1993, but this was actually a touch better than expectations of 6.8%. Average hourly earnings rose by 7 cents, or 0.4%, to $18.30. On the news, Mortgage Bonds bounced all over the place, but are presently trading relatively flat again. If you take a look at the Bond Page, you can see that Bond prices continue to test a layer of resistance marked by the price highs of 2008. Our position to Float into today's Jobs Report appears to have been the right call, but we must now be ready to Lock, possibly on this morning's improved rate sheet, should prices push back lower from resistance once again.
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Thu, Dec 04 - 11:25 AM ET

12-04-08
Larry Bailey
Fed Fund Futures are now showing a 65% chance of a 75bp cut on December 16. 10:04 AM ET - The Big 3 are back on Capitol Hill today looking for a bridge loan to keep from bankruptcy. With all of the bad news and weak data Stocks are slightly positive. MBS unchanged. 9:20 AM ET - Not much action in the debt markets as traders await the big jobs report tomorrow. Non-farm payrolls are expected to fall by -325,000. MBS near unchanged. Stocks set to open lower. 8:25 AM ET - AT&T to cut 12,000 jobs. 8:22 AM ET - BOE and ECB cut rates by 1% and .75% respectively. Oil continues to drop now at $45.75/barrel down $1 as demand slows and even despite OPEC cuts in production. MBS slightly lower.
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Alert! Watch out for Your Name Being Sold - Please Take Action Now!

12-03-08
Larry Bailey
Please read this as you will need to let all your family and friends know what is going on right now. Your information is a very hot commodity Having credit checked is an important and necessary step in the home buying process. But very few people realize that each time their credit is checked, the “inquiry data” that the credit bureaus (Equifax, TransUnion, Innovis or Experian) have on file have now become a commodity. This information is being sold by the credit bureaus to other lenders…and also to companies that sell and resell the same names and personal information. That’s right – the credit bureaus have found a way to increase their revenues at your expense….and without your permission. These “inquiry leads” include name, address, phone numbers (including unlisted), credit score, current debt and debt history, property information, age, gender and estimated income. They are marketing personal, confidential information to competing creditors…and making millions. Your privacy is being sold, not just once, but over and over again. The consumer credit reporting industry has provided a way to “opt out” and remove your name from these lists. You can contact them by phone at 1-888-567-8688 or online at www.optoutprescreen.com You must opt out at least 48 hours prior to having your credit checked to make sure it is processed in time. You can choose a five year or lifetime option, and the lifetime option does require a signed form. The good news is by opting-out you can make it stop right away and protect yourself from “pre-approved credit offers” arriving via mail, which is one of the leading causes of identity theft in the US.
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