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January 2009 Newsletter

01-14-09
Lee Riley

As I write this letter, I am looking out the window and it is snowing hard. Supposedly, we will get 1 to 3 inches. I think the weatherman has lied again. So far, this winter is reminiscent of last year, the toughest winter in 25 years, only this one has gotten a big head start. If you are in the snowplow business, there is no recession.

Speaking of the economy, I’m doing my best to be optimistic. The first two days of 2009, the stock market was up by the biggest percentage in history. Mortgage rates are down. I’m considering refinancing when rates hit 4.5% and no points. I’m keeping my fingers crossed that we get an Obama bounce and consumer confidence starts to roll in the right direction. In the meantime, I am watching my pennies and trying not to be wasteful or frivolous. Gas prices are great. Two months ago, it cost me $100 to fill up, and today I spent $40 and had to double check to make sure the pump didn’t shut off prematurely.

A lot of other people are watching the interest rates and thinking about refinancing. I called Jim Askins at Fairway Mortgage to find out what people need to do so that they can be ready to pull the trigger when the rates are right. Jim recommends the following:

If you have a mortgage with a rate at 5.75% or higher, get in line for the refinance event when it comes:

1. Make full application with all substantiating documents

2. The lender will order the appraisal.

3. The lender obtains a full approval “clear to close.”

4. Wait for your target rate to come into focus, and the lender will lock in and close the loan, sometimes in less than a week.

So, you have to be completely done, ready to close the loan. This will allow your lender to lock on the best terms available for you.

Regarding Real Estate; the stats I put together this month go back to 2005. Check out the dramatic change. Prices have not declined here as much as other parts of the country. I predict prices will continue to fall at least till this summer. It’s a great time to buy! It’s a great time to buy!

I had a good year in 2008 up from 2007, and sold more than twice as many properties as the next Realtor. I look at my sales as a way to cheer me up when I feel sorry for myself or need reassurance and confidence in myself.

The key to success in 2009 is to think outside the box. Be creative, work hard, think positive, and don’t become complacent. I’m working on my goals for 2009. The key is writing them down. If you have not written your goals down this year, DO SO. I promise it works, but you must write them down with great detail.

I wish you all the best for 2009.

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Stats

03-07-08
Lee Riley
PAGOSA SPRINGS REAL ESTATE STATISTICS
►Now Includes Stats from 2005!◄
Jan - Dec of 2005, 2006, and 2007
**Note: These numbers may not be exact.**
"% Difference" indicates change from 2006 to 2007
                 
  Properties Sold Inventory Available
Homes 2005 2006 2007 % Difference 2005 2006 2007 % Difference
$0-100,000 62 33 13 -61% 18 11 23 +109%
$100,001 to 150,000 66 20 19 -5% 17 19 27 +42%
$150,001 to 200,000 89 43 24 -44% 19 9 26 +189%
$200,001 to 250,000 68 47 29 -38% 24 22 43 +95%
$250,001 to 300,000 60 50 29 -42% 27 24 53 +121%
$300,001 to 400,000 59 53 36 -32% 31 54 87 +61%
$400,001 to 500,000 25 23 16 -30% 27 36 47 +31%
$500,001 to 750,000 30 23 29 +26% 56 50 56 +12%
$750,001 to 1,000,000 4 10 6 -40% 29 34 +17%
$1,000,001 plus 9 11 4 -64% 27 26 50 +92%
All 472 313 205 -35% 246 280 446 +59%
                 
Average Sale Closed $270,463 $331,814 $356,557 +$24,743 ►►►►► Up 7%    
                 
Days on Market 139 159 186 +27 ►►►►► Up 17%    
                 
                 
  Properties Sold Inventory Available
Condos 2005 2006 2007 % Difference 2005 2006 2007 % Difference
$0-100,000 39 10 4 -60% 4 1 3 +200%
$100,001-200,000 30 36 20 -44% 13 26 52 +100%
$200,001-300,000 30 15 12 -20% 49 20 40 +100%
$300,001 plus 21 22 14 -36% 56 42 -25%
All 120 83 50 -40% 66 103 137 +33%
                 
Average Sale Closed $179,492 $219,967 $230,669 +$10,702 ►►►►► Up 5%    
                 
Days on Market 120 182 223 +41 ►►►►► Up 23%    
                 
                 
  Properties Sold Inventory Available
Vacant Lots 2005 2006 2007 % Difference 2005 2006 2007 % Difference
up to .50 acres 340 201 112 -44%        
.51 to 2.99 acres 304 177 76 -57%        
3 to 5.99 acres 182 64 35 -45%        
6 to 34.99 acres 53 24 13 -46%        
35 to 49.99 acres 109 55 30 -45%        
50 plus acres 25 12 8 -33%        
All 1013 533 274 -49% 696 777 1020 +31%
                 
Average Sale Closed $94,162 $145,850 $142,441 -$3,409 ►►►►► Down 2%    
                 
Days on Market 159 161 240 +79 ►►►►► Up 49%    
                 
                 
  Properties Sold Inventory Available
Other 2005 2006 2007 % Difference 2005 2006 2007 % Difference
Total Commercial 49 23 21 -9% 55 72 90 +25%
Average Sale Closed $294,693 $437,754 $430,210 -$7,544 ►►►►► Down 2%    
                 
Total Ranches N/A 6 5 -17% N/A 5 6 +20%
Average Sale Closed N/A $2,000,722 $1,687,000 -$313,722 ►►►►► Down 16%    
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