Fannie: 'Recovery is here'
11% growth in home sales forecast for 2010
By Inman News, Thursday, November 19, 2009.
The deepest and longest recession since the Great Depression appears to be over, Fannie Mae economists say, projecting sales of new and existing homes will jump 11 percent next year and that national home prices will stabilize, remaining essentially flat.
The mortgage guarantor's monthly housing forecast projects 5.96 million home sales in 2010, with sales of existing homes growing by 10 percent, to 5.46 million. New-home sales are expected to rebound even more sharply in 2010, growing by 24 percent to 498,000.
"It appears that the economic recovery is here," Fannie Mae economists Doug Duncan and Orawin Velz said in a report summarizing their economic and mortgage forecasts, although they expect it will be weak compared to previous recoveries from deep recessions.
Real gross domestic product (GDP) grew at a 3.5 percent annualized pace in the third quarter, following five declines in the prior six quarters, they noted, but growth is likely to moderate in the final three months of the year before strengthening in late 2010.
The first-time homebuyer tax credit helped boost third-quarter home sales, which also led to a jump in real estate brokerage commissions, Duncan and Velz said in their report.
A 23.3 increase in the annualized rate of residential investment (home sales) in the third quarter was the largest in more than two decades, although it came from "extremely depressed" levels, the report said. Real residential investment was contributing to economic growth again, adding 0.5 percentage points to third-quarter GDP growth.
But a survey of consumers in October showed the percentage of respondents indicating that "jobs are hard to get" hitting a new high for the downturn. In their economic forecast, Duncan and Velz said they expect the unemployment rate to average 10 percent next year, up from 9.3 percent this year and 4.6 percent in 2007.
Their housing forecast projects that housing starts will surge by 35 percent next year, from a recent historic low of 462,000 projected starts in 2009 to 624,000 next year.
Fannie Mae expects national home prices will stabilize next year, with the median resale home price remaining essentially unchanged at $170,800. That's a 0.2 percent decline from 2009 and a 22 percent decline from 2007.
The median price of a new home is expected to fall by nearly 2 percent from this year to next, to $208,400 -- a 16 percent decline from 2007.
Although new-home sales fell in September after five consecutive months of increases, the months' supply of new homes was unchanged at 7.5 months. New-home stocks have fallen steadily since May 2007, and are at the lowest levels since 1982, Duncan and Velz said in their analysis.
Other data indicate "a substantial excess supply of housing." The homeowner vacancy rate grew to 2.6 percent during the third quarter -- still below the 2.9 percent level reached at the end of 2008 but well above the long-term average of 1.7 percent.
At 11.1 percent, the third-quarter rental vacancy rate was the highest since record-keeping began in 1965. That has depressed rents, which along with stagnating wages relieves pressure on the consumer price index, and that should in turn allow the Federal Reserve to keep short-term interest rates on hold until late 2010, the Fannie Mae economists project.
Mortgage originations are expected to plummet 29 percent next year from 2009 levels, to $1.34 billion, as mortgage rates rise and this year's refinancing boom comes to an end.
Fannie Mae projects $1.3 billion in mortgages will be refinanced this year, accounting for two-thirds of mortgage originations by dollar volume. Only about half the volume in refinancings is expected next year, as many who are eligible to refinance will have already done so. Also, interest rates for 30-year fixed-rate conforming mortgages are expected to rise from an average 5.07 percent this year to 5.42 percent in 2010.
Rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages hit a record low of 4.78 percent in April, largely due to the Federal Reserve's purchases of up to $1.25 trillion in mortgage-backed securities in a temporary program that's scheduled to end in March 2010.
With purchase-loan volume expected to climb 13 percent in 2010, to $733 billion, refinancings will make up less than half of the total dollar volume of mortgage loans.
Applications for adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) loans are expected to account for 8 percent of loan requests next year, up from 5 percent this year but significantly less than the 20 percent market share ARMs caputured in 2007, when the financial crisis began.
http://www.inman.com/news/2009/11/19/fannie-recovery-here?page=0%2C0
A few comments: Let's remember that our market has been driven by first time home buyers. Now we have to sustain this. If bargains are going to be in the high end, we need people who have jobs to be able to afford them and buy them.
|
The November 12, 2009 Newsletter has been published to the Villa Park Rotary website. A copy has been included below. |
|
|
|
Rotary Club of Villa Park Newsletter
The Holidays Are Coming!!
The meeting began with an Invocation by Pam Dunn that was a tribute to our veterans, followed by the flag salute and "God Bless America"
Guests: Ken Caplin- Assistant Governor- who reminded us to write up our projects for District recognition Marty Friesen- a visiting Rotarian from Manitoba, Canada
Brice Prather- returned after a long absence-
Announcements: Steve Stern- Announced there will be an All Community Service Luncheon on November 19th contact Betsy Little for more information and reservations- Betsylittle@roadrunner.com or 714-289-0370 --Our Holiday Party will be on Wednesday Night January 13th at PJ's Abbey Jay Applebaum- reported on the Foundation Dinner that was held last Saturday Night at the Irvine Hilton- the club was awarded our 100% Paul Harris Banner as well as an award for Club donations to the Rotary Foundation. Our club was only one of eight clubs in the district that gave more than $100 per member to the Foundation over the last year. Congratulations to Jeannie Hankins and all the club member for the support of the Rotary Foundation. Attending the event were: Steve and Lainey Stern, Pam and Art Dunn, Lesslie Giacobbi and Jay and Terry Applebaum. The highlight of the evening was the appearance of Fritz Coleman KNBC Weatherman, comedian and rotarian, who was very entertaining. Kudos to Anaheim Hills Rotarian Roy Jefferson who chaired the event and was quite funny in his own right. Happy Bucks: Bob Kreisberg- was very happy to announce two new Jr. Achievement projects that will occur right here in Villa Park. The 1st will benefit the Cerra Villa Middle School, and is a 6 week program that will commence in the Spring of 2010; the 2nd is a program for Serrano Elementary School that will teach the students about money and budgeting. This will be an afterschool program and both programs should be within our budget to support. Thanks Bob for being such a strong advocate of these programs and for helping to establish them in our community. Teri Brooks- wanted to salute the Veterans and all they do to protect our country- past and present. She also noted that son, Garrett turned 21 and celebrated with Bacchus, the god of wine and various other alcoholic beverages. Oh to be 21 again. Happy Birthday Garrett. Steve Stern- was happy to announce all the awards the club won at the Foundation Dinner and President's Dinner. According to Steve, who spoke with Immediate Past District Governor Roger McGonegal, we are one of the top 3 clubs in the district. Ron Accornero- Just returned from a 12 day trip to Israel and had a wonderful time tracing the footsteps of Jesus. Ken Meyer- talked about his experience last weekend at Fort Hood immediately following the shooting spree. He spent many hours in the airport due to a lockdown of the base and it was slow going once the base reopened. He did get to spend the weekend with wife Angel and announced he will be leaving our club to move to Texas on December 3rd to become a full time husband. Steven Pollack- had a good trip to Baltimore and Florida, he also saluted Bob Meyer for the front page article in the Veteran's Day issue of the Orange County Register. He also thanked Pam Dunn for her help with a recent refi. Bob Bell- also saluted Bob Meyer . He also had a recent trip to Kauai and had a wild helicopter ride that ended safely. John Broussard spent the day with his grandson visiting Thomas the Train Engine. Bob Meyer- recognized Ken Caplin and the Orange North Rotary Club for donating 40 boxes to the troops. George Poulos donated 3 happy bucks for winning last weeks opportunity drawing that he split with Milt Stamos. Must be guilt, since he and Milt must have had the lucky stub at least 4 or 5 times before finally winning. Ken Caplin reporting collecting 3 boxes of food yesterday. He also reminded us to get our matching grants in before the money is all gone. The District is due to receive $25,000. Pam Dunn- celebrated Veteran's Day with husband Art, a veteran of Viet Nam, by going out to dinner and thinking about all Art's buddies from the war, some who came home and others who didn't. Jane McDonald-reported that the club sent $1100 to Singasora, Romania as humanitarian aid and that we have established contact with a rotary club in that area for future international projects. This apparently came through a contact Jane made at Douglas College in New Jersey. Steve Kawa- was invited to attend the Breeder's Cup Horse Race and he announced he was the secret greeter. He collected lots of bucks for the club and that ain't hay! Ed Howard announced the football game between EL MO and Villa Park that took place last night. Villa Park went on to win 35 to 14 and will move onto the CIF playoffs for the first time in several years. He went on to talk about how well the school has done in Water Polo, Cross Country and Girl's Volleyball this year. Go Spartans!! Marty Friesen our guest from Canada, complimented our warm weather and the friendliness of the group. Marty is in Southern California with his family, he works in manufacturing, but was here with a group of 600 Mennonite Businessman who give micro-financing loans to poor individuals throughout the world who want to start a business. The group has given $175 million so far in $500 loans and receives a nice return of 6.5% annually and noted there is a less than 1% default rate on the loans. Marty and his family are going to stay in San Diego for the next couple of days. He learned of our meeting through the website and was very complimentary of the sight. He is a new Rotarian.
Tom Davis drew a Jack
Speeker: Kent McBride from the Orange County Bomb Squad Kent has been a sheriff's deputy for 20 years and formerly patrolled the streets of Villa Park. Over the last 8 years he has been working with the Bomb Squad. He gave a very interesting presentation that included the duties of the bomb squad, the different effects that explosives produce (shock waves, heat, shrapnel) ,and some interesting video demonstrating the power of explosives on vehicles. He also showed a video demonstrating the dangers of simple bottle bombs made with dry ice and water. He then introduced us to his canine partner, Falcon, a black lab bomb sniffing dog who demonstrated his ability to sniff out explosives by finding a bag of gun powder that Kent had hidden in the room. Kent explained that he had to spend 10 weeks last summer training with Falcon and getting to know how to best utilize his skills and his behavior patterns. Kent watches Falcon's behaviors when out on the job, since a subtle change in behavior may be a clue to a bomb's location. Falcon found the planted gunpowder and was rewarded with a tennis ball. He lives to get the tennis ball reward, which he only gets when he successfully completes his bomb sniffing duties. Falcon lives with the McBride family and their other pet dog. The Orange County Bomb Squad is very well equipped and has 7 other dogs that are used in the field to sniff out explosives. The take home message: beware of packages that you don't expect; bombs come in all shapes and sizes. If you suspect something is suspicious call the Bomb Squad. This was a very interesting and informative discussion.
Save the Date: Wednesday January 13th PJ's Abbey for our annual Holiday Party 6-9 PM. |
The following statistics include real estate transactions for Anaheim Hills as of Friday, November 13, 2009.
Single Family Residences
Total Homes on the market, detached and attached is 99
All other statistics for Single Family Residences are for detached homes only
Median List Price:
92807- $689,000 with the average price being $1,357,452
92808- $834,950 with the average price being $1,264,352
Total Houses Available for both zip codes: 83
Least Expensive:
$429,000 for a single-story home of approximately 1,516sq.ft. off of Santa Ana Canyon Rd and Pinney. This 4BR, 2BA was built in 1965 and has a lot size of 7,632sq.ft. Close to parks, schools, shopping centers and the 91fwy. This short sale has been on the market for 26 listing days.
Most Expensive:
$5,950,000 for an extraordinary built custom estate high in the hills. This magnificent estate is comprised of a single level main house, separate bonus room with bedroom and bath, and a private guest house with bedroom and bath; approximately 8,284sq.ft. of living space on 95,007sq.ft. of sprawling grounds. This home is complete with separate family and living rooms, great room with built in wet bar, putting green, 60' infinity pool, built-in BBQ, double island chef's kitchen, 8-car garage, complete indoor/outdoor surround sound system, private road with gated entry at the bottom of 400' drive and panoramic views of the city. This home has been on the market for 121 listing days.
Price ranges of available detached houses:
$400,000-499,999: 9
$500,000-599,999: 6
$600,000-699,999: 19
$700,000-799,999: 11
$800,000-899,999: 3
$900,000-999,999: 4
$1,000,000-1,499,999: 7
$1,500,000-1,999,999: 8
$2,000,000-2,499,999: 0
$2,500,000-2,999,999: 3
$3,000,000-3,499,999: 7
$3,500,000-3,999,999: 2
$4,000,000-4,499,999: 0
$4,500,000-4,999,999: 0
$5,000,000+: 2
Average on Market
Available: 83
List Price: $1,317,071
Bedrooms: 4
Bath: 3
Square Feet: 3,596
Days On Market: 106
Dollar Per Sq.Ft.: $366.26
Average for Closed Sales:
Closed Sales: 0 closed sales between 11/6/09-11/13/09
Averages for Escrow:
Homes in Escrow: 55
List Price: $667,704
Bedrooms: 4
Bath: 3
Square Feet: 2,621
Days On Market: 73
Dollar Per Sq.Ft.: $254.75
Single Family Residences: Attached
There are 16 Active listings with an average of 82 listing days, listed at the average price of $587,343. There were 2 closed sales with average 3BR, 2BA, 1,598sq.ft. for $453,750. There are 16 properties in escrow with an average of 103 listing days, listed at the average price of $450,525.
Condominiums
Total condominiums, attached and detached 18
All other statistics for Condominiums are for Attached condos only
Median List Price
92807- $370,000 with the average price being $378,333
92808- $327,500 with the average price being $321,270
Total Condos Available for both zip codes: 13
Least Expensive:
$186,000 for approximately 800 sq.ft. built in 1980. Located off of Riverdale and Tustin. This condo is a 2BR, 1BA with a 2-car detached garage. Home Association dues are $200/month including access to association pool and spa. This property has been on the market for 131 listing day.
Most Expensive:
$579,000 for a 4BR, 3BA two-level condo with 2,943 sq.ft. built in 1974. This condo has a 2-car attached garage with direct access. Located off of Canyon Rim. and Anaheim Hills Rd. HOA dues of $337.00. This condo has been on the market for 161 listing days.
Price ranges of available condominiums:
$100,000-199,999: 1
$200,000-299,999: 4
$300,000-399,999: 7
$400,000-499,999: 0
$500,000-599,999: 1
Average on Market:
Available: 13
List Price: $334,438
Bedrooms: 2
Bath: 2
Square Feet: 1,230
Days On Market: 87
Dollar Per Sq.Ft.: $271.90
Average for Closed Sales
Closed Sales: 3
List Price: $308,300
Bedrooms: 2
Bath: 2
Square Feet: 1,272
Days On Market: 68
Dollar Per Sq.Ft.: $242.37
Average for Escrow
In Escrow: 25
List Price: $324,678
Bedrooms: 3
Bath: 2.5
Square Feet: 1,257
Days On Market: 9
Dollar Per Sq.Ft.: $258.30
|
|||||
| OPT OUT INFORMATION: You have received this email because you are listed in the directory of the Villa Park Rotary web site and are signed up to receive these emails. To stop receiving these emails, log in to the member area of the site or click the following link: http://www.PrincetonIM.com/optout.cfm?id=1393801-1833943 |
October 2009 Sales in Orange
$500,000-$1,000,000
For just the month of October in the city of Orange (92867,92869),in the price range $500,000-$1,000,000 The active inventory is 73 properties, with the average price at $705,984. Average List Price /$ per sq. ft.: ($705,984 /2524 sq. ft.) or $279.71 per sq. ft
Between the price range of $500,000-$1,000,000 there are 41 properties that went under contract.
There are 21 properties in "Back Up"-
Average List Price /$ per sq. ft.: ($662,122/ 2541 sq. ft) $260.58 per sq. ft.
There are 20 properties in "Pending Sales" (Contingencies Removed)
Average List Price /$ per sq. ft.: ($693,340 /2624sq/ ft), $264.23 per sq. ft.
Sold and Closed
There are 8 properties that have sold and closed for October
Average List Price /$ per sq. ft.: ($734,812 /2859 sq/ ft), $257.02 per sq. ft.
The sales prices and $ per sq. foot for both the Back-ups and Pending sales will be less than above once these properties actually close escrow and we see what they sold for.
$1,000,000 +
Above $1,000,000-one million dollars there are 44 Active Listings.
Average List Price /$ per sq. ft.: ($1,786,272 /4454 sq/ ft), $401.05 per sq. ft.
Above $1,000,000-one million dollars-just one property is under contract as "Pending"
Average List Price /$ per sq. ft.: ($1,550,000 /4900 sq/ ft), $316.33 per sq. ft.
This would mean at one sale per month over 1,000,000 it would take 44 months to sell off all of the active listing inventory.
 |
|
|
ActiveRain Corp. is not responsible for the accuracy of the site's content (which is written by members of the ActiveRain Real Estate Network) and does not endorse the views of the real estate agents, mortgage brokers, and others listed here.
Powered by the ActiveRain Real Estate Network
© 2009 ActiveRain Corp. All Rights Reserved
