Li Read

November 5, 2009.

It remains oddly busy, for the time of year!

July and August were very "flat", and tourism involved mainly daytrippers out of Vancouver and the Lower Mainland, according to the Chamber's tourist count.

Although Vancouver reported bidding wars, and diminished inventory, this did not happen in Victoria or on the Gulf Islands or on Vancouver Island or on the Sunshine Coast. This vibrant action was mainly in the lower end residential options, and involved first time buyers, attracted by lower prices and low interest rates, and by investors looking for good rental properties, perhaps seeking "passive income" opportunities.

In a recent newsletter by a well known real estate "guru", in the Lower Mainland, it was noted that 90% of immigration to B.C. goes to Vancouver, with only 4% going to Victoria. Interesting! Surrey and Coquitlam municipalities are looking for expansive options, and are considering allowing developers to create triplexes/fourplexes, where only single family homes were being allowed.

In some recreational/secondary home areas, fractional ownership options are being looked at. It is a way of allowing increased useage, although not increased density (on the Gulf Islands, the Islands Trust prohibits growth).

Creative ways to allow for influx of population. Yes, it's been a downmarket, and for some areas this slowdown actually began in 2006. Yes, it may be slowly crawling out of this. Economic drivers both cause hesitation/fallback, and also propel (fear can be a driver, and in this case, it's the fear that cash may be the next bubble).

Important to be paying attention to "everything" right now, and to be thoughtful, not just reactive, to what we hear.

Also important to practice the attitude of gratitude. We are so lucky that we live in this coastal area, as it is truly beautiful, does offer a sense of the natural world that is missing in so many parts of the globe, and it still offers a "safe haven" lifestyle.

Meantime, in the short term, it's busying up and we need to pay attention to economics, and not to the weather/time of year...it's irrelevant! If sellers were despairing, that time may be over...action is occurring. Inventory remains "thin", and so buyers, (if they haven't acted already), may find that their window of opportunity, on price points, has evaporated.

Stay tuned!

Throughout Canada's main cities, there has been an upsurge in sales action, year to date, in what I would term "low end residential" -- in other words, property that would be in the realm of a first time buyer, attracted by low interest rates, and also by an investor (looking for viable rental options, for passive income opportunity). Undeveloped land, commercial items, and higher end/luxury properties did not easily find action. In rural areas, predominantly secondary home/discretionary regions, this action also did not take place. Such places can be put "on hold" during insecure market moments.

Yes, there is a lot of money, resting in cash, with nervous potential buyers adopting a wait and see attitude. On the one hand, the deflatiion argument has people wanting to remain in cash, so as to benefit from further bargains, particularly in the "move up" properties. I heard from one seller, not in my area, who noted that his property had been shown 17 times in the past five months, all qualified potential buyers, and only one party had "acted" (purchased another home). That left the remaining 16 purposely "waiting"...all of them, according to the realtor, felt that prices would continue to go down, and so they were waiting to benefit from their "clout" as potential cash buyers, when they felt things had "really" bottomed.

Newsletters, read by serious people, who did not experience significant losses in Sept/Oct/Nov. of 2008, and who do have cash holdings, project that there will be further severe drops in real estate valuations. One such newsletter, by a respected "deflation sayer", promises there could be further declines of up to 40%, in some areas. This, after the 20 to 30% declines already experienced, in the past year. While this kind of prediction is targeted to a U.S. readership, we cannot assume we will escape anything, just because we live on the Canadian side of the border. In erasing geography and time, the internet evolved the "global village", and so we are all interconnected.

On the other hand, the inflation scenario notes the continuing collapses of banks and financial institutions, plus the need of large "global" banks for more government help (the Swiss USB, the U.K. Northern Rock and Scottish Bank, among such), which implies further printing of paper currencies, more bailouts, diminishing value of cash holdings...impending hyperinflation as an end result. This kind of fear would seem to propel such potential investor/buyers back into good real estate hard asset holdings. Such, though, could be condos in Vancouver or townhouse in Victoria, or...not, then, necessarily a second or third home property, in an area such as the Gulf Islands or Tofino/Uclulet or Whistler or Osoyoos, or...such discretionary areas can continue to be put "on hold".

However, that very "offset" characteristic of a discretionary area, just a little apart from the potential chaos of a city, if things unravelled, might drive people towards places like the Gulf Islands, with its cap on growth, or to Tofino/Uclulet (same issue of limited inventory), etc. Security, a "safe haven" search, would make such places of more interest than a city market would deliver.

Hmmmm...still an either / or proposition, with no middle ground / no grey area in sight...either deflation/collapse or inflation/erosion of value of cash/currency.

There we all are, then, still sloshing around in the pool of uncertainty, with no clear indication of where to splash forward....towards the deep end or the shallow? Where did we say we could find that crystal ball?

Important, more than ever, to be thoughtful, to practice our peripheral vision (tunnel vision gets us nowhere!) so we can see some movement on the edges that could aid us, to practice our editing function (have to turn all that raw data into real information), and to pay attention to our creative inspiration. There are no real experts...no one "knows". We have to look to ourselves, here, and make some decisions about paths for ourselves.

As Heraclitus reminded us, back in Ancient Greece, the only constant in life is change.

November, 2009.

Although the calendar says that Winter officially begins on December 20th, most of us would agree that it's "here", already!

In the last weeks of the year, one tends to look both back and also forward.

The meltdowns that characterized most of 2008, unleashing economic duress and fear, folded into 2009.

Perhaps, looking back, one could decide that the worst / most fearful months were September 2008 to February 2009.

Locally, on Salt Spring Island, we saw an upsurge in real estate sales around mid-February, but only in the "low end residential" category.

There was no interest in higher end residential options (on Salt Spring, that would be anything over 800,000), and no interest in undeveloped land opportunities. Commercial options were also ignored.

The buyer was either a "first time" person, or an investor looking for a rental investment.

With continuing low interest rates, coupled with sellers in a mood to consider offers, post credit crunch/meltdowns, it appeared a time to buy.

Along with that perception, underneath the slow/consistent sales, the listing inventory remained stable. Most owners preferred not to be sellers, unless they "had to".

Between February and April, there was a further substantial price reduction delivered to a seller at the point of an offer.

Then, between May and August, as the low inventory cleared out, and little new inventory came onstream, sellers were slowly able to get closer to their list price.

In city markets, in the same low end residential category, bidding wars developed due to this low inventory issue. On a Gulf Island, which is a discretionary area, bidding wars are very rare -- sellers getting list price might be a Gulf Island route!

Prices, though, according to appraisers, had reduced between 12 and 20 percent, between 2008 and 2009, depending upon type of property involved.

The Tourist office in Ganges reported that the majority of visitors to the Island, in the summer months, were "day trippers".

That meant they weren't staying at B and Bs, at resorts, renting kayaks, or scooters, or cars, weren't eating dinner in restaurants, or looking at real estate. Yes, they may have picked up information, for a later date, but they weren't viewing. Most of the daytrippers were from Vancouver/Lower Mainland.

Then, around third week in September, there began a flurry of action in the very categories that had been so "flat" -- higher end residential, commercial, and undeveloped land options. This was as sudden an emergence of activity as had been the early Spring flurry.

In spite of time of year/uncertainty of weather, it has become busy. Is this the beginning of the move out of cash positions and into safer hard asset investments? Weather is irrelevant; economics may be the driver.

During the past two years, the arguments for deflation and inflation were evenly balanced.

With the consistent printing of paper currency, as bailouts continued, with nothing backing the paper, is the fear of inflation scenario winning out? Are the whispers of interest rate increases a sign of this worry?

The lack of sales action in the higher end properties has resulted in many huge price reductions, in an effort to bring forth buyers.

If those resting heavily in cash decide to return to hard assets, then there are attractive "deals" out there.

Is this what's creating activity right now, so late in the year? The concern over inflation? Fear creates hesitation, but it also propels -- if this is what's underway, a flight to safe havens, to preserve capital, then this activity will continue into early Spring, and beyond.

It is interesting to note that all categories of properties/price points are now finding activity, even though so late in the year.

The other Southern Gulf Islands have noted slower sales activity than has been experienced on Salt Spring.

Vancouver Island, Sunshine Coast, Gulf Islands have not experienced the briskness seen in Vancouver or in Victoria. They are primary residence/city markets.

Secondary home/discretionary markets, such as the Gulf Islands, can be put "on hold", in uncertain times.

The Islands Trust, in place since the mid-1970s, capped growth on every Gulf Island. No matter the real estate trend in play, then, there will always be a low inventory of available properties, as a result of the government's Trust zoning restrictions, to cap growth.

Already, Salt Spring Island and the Southern Gulf Islands are pretty close to "max", re development.

The Islands offer a wonderful lifestyle, with privacy but not isolation. It is buyers that set markets, not sellers or realtors.

In creating an enclave area, with their government mandated growth controls, via the Islands Trust, a recipe for price escalation, over time, was set in place in 1974.

The economic meltdown created a small moment in time for a buyer to maintain a modicum of control over the sales process.

If the inflationary scenario is the one that comes forth, then that "buyer's market" moment may be evaporating. The Islands Trust cap on growth created a protected investment area, with their "no more" policy.

The next three to four months will be interesting, indeed, as we seem to be balancing on a rocking/rolling ball, again.

More info about opportunities on Salt Spring Island and the Southern Gulf Islands? I welcome your call!

How may I help you to discover your Island dream?

There is always opportunity!

October 31, 2009.

Hallowe'en! Free hotdogs and hot chocolate at the Ganges Firehall...thanks to Country Grocer. Fireworks take place at Coast Guard dock, thanks to generous Island supporters, and the Firefighters.

Earlier, though, it's the Olympic Torch, and the celebration at Centennial Park, 1 to 4 p.m.

Remember to turn your clocks back tonight, when you go to bed -- tomorrow, we're back to Standard Time!

Tomorrow, too, at the Harbour House Hotel, 6:30 p.m., there's a fundraiser to benefit the Institute for Sustainability Education & Action (I-SEA), and the Salt Spring Organization for Life Improvement & Development (SOLID). Over 80 items from Salt Spring and beyond, plus a veggie appetizer feast, provided by Harbour House, and music by Stephanie Rhodes and friends. Presentations, too, on the exciting projects underway by both I-SEA and SOLID. Salt Spring entrepreneurial spirit at work!

I know it hasn't turned from Fall into Winter, calendar wise (I see it there, marked as Dec. 20th), but most of us feel that Hallowe'en ushers in a different weather pattern/"feel" to the Island. Now that Standard Time is back, it will be dark by 4:30 -- make sure you pay attention, when driving home from work, as some pedestrians do not wear reflective armbands or other clothing "decals".

Eat your fruit and veggies, exercise, get fresh air, remember to wash your hands/don't touch your eyes, nose, mouth, do not shake hands (smile, nod, bow), and be well. Yes, the H1N1 "flu is around, but prudent health habits will keep you safe...that includes staying home, if you don't feel well. We need to practice positive living elements, and that means we don't go out and spread our germs around!

This Monday is the community radio morning show that I do with Mark Voyce, of Bocados Bistro...we have Jan Rabson as our guest, and you can tune into us from 7 to 9 a.m., every Monday, different guests each week, at: www.cfsi-fm.com or, locally, at 107.9 fm. Jan has a passion for radio, and I'm looking forward to his effervescent spirit!

October 30, 2009.

Tomorrow, along with being Hallowe'en -- be careful driving, as there are ghost and goblins out there, trick and treating! -- it's also the day that the Olympic Torch comes to Salt Spring.

Festivities take place in Centennial Park, from 1 p.m., with musical entertainment at 2 p.m. Free pizza, hot chocolate, juice, plus Free Draws for great prizes from Salt Spring merchants, plus face painting, tatoos, giveaways.

At 3:20 the Torch arrives by floatplane, from Lake Cowichan, and will make the rounds of downtown Ganges, before being driven to the Vesuvius Ferry, and back onto Vancouver Island.

This is a stellar event that is a part of all B.C., even though the venue is in Whistler and Vancouver, for the actual Olympic events.

We all live in such a beautiful part of the world, whether on a Gulf Island or on Vancouver Island, or on the Sunshine Coast. Same with Victoria and Vancouver -- it's the "coastal grid", and it's full of beauty!

This is a celebration, that the Winter Olympics will take place in B.C.

Let's turn out, and support those who are carrying the Torch for our area.

See you there!