Loren Johnson, CMPS

The important Employment report will come out next Friday. As usual, this data on the number of jobs, the Unemployment Rate, and wage inflation will be the most highly anticipated economic data of the month. Early estimates are for a loss of over 600K jobs in February.

Before the Employment Data, the ISM national manufacturing index and Personal Income will come out on Monday.

Pending Home Sales, a leading indicator for the housing market, is scheduled for Tuesday.

Productivity, Factory Orders, and Construction Spending reports will be released on Thursday.

The amount of money the US Treasury will need to borrow to fund government spending seems to rise every week. Two weeks ago, it was the $787 billion Economic Stimulus Plan. Last week, the government announced the $275 billion Financial Stability Plan. This week, the Obama administration proposed a $3.6 trillion budget plan, with an estimated deficit of $1.75 trillion, which is enormous by historical standards. The Treasury will need to issue debt to borrow money to fund all of this. As the government issues more debt, the interest rate offered generally must rise to attract additional investors. Interest rates on similar investments such as MBS then move higher as well to compete for funds from investors.

This final week of February will reveal a number of important indicators of economic growth.

Existing Home Sales and New Home Sales will be released on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. Durable Orders will also come out on Thursday.

Revisions to fourth quarter 2008 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will be released on Friday, along with the Chicago PMI national manufacturing index.

Consumer Sentiment and Consumer Confidence are on the schedule as well.

Fed speakers, the scheduled Treasury auction on Thursday, and new information about government programs also may have a significant impact on mortgage markets this week. Call or e-mail me before you want to lock a rate....and have a great week!

After years of being the "grumpy" one, the cynic, the glass is half empty person, I have finally arrived. Last week someone who met me last year and has spent just a small bit of time with me said "You are such an inspiration, you are always so upbeat and looking at the bright side of things". Whew. That was a goal of mine, and I might have achieved it!

So what is your attitude like? Are you as sick and tired of hearing complaints as I am? Last week the manager of the local gas station was sweeping the sand off her sidewalk, and commented to me how she didn't even sand her parking lot but look at all of this dirt! She felt the village should come and clean it up, since it's their sand! My approach? I pointed out that all that sand was a sign that she had lots and lots of customers, and wasn't that nicer than the alternative? She stopped, smiled, and agreed that was a better way to look at it, and off she went sweeping and smiling.

How about you? Are you walking about like a grump? Are you complaining all the time about how business is slow, customers aren't buying, and isn't he economic news just awful? Well, given a choice, I will choose to buy from, associate with, and REFER business to someone with a brighter attitude. I have dozens of stories from my connections about how this is their best year yet, how they are working toward their goals with gusto, and how many opportunities there are out in the world right now. It's all in the perspective.

So what's your attitude like? Check the grumpy at the door please, leave it at home, in your car, anywhere but within hearing distance of the people who will refer business to you. Be someone who people want to spend time with, and they will refer business to you.

Have a GREAT week!

Inflation data will highlight a full Economic Calendar next week.

Industrial Production, an important indicator of economic activity, and Housing Starts will be released on Wednesday.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) focuses on the increase in prices of "intermediate" goods used by companies to produce finished products and will come out on Thursday.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI), the most closely watched monthly inflation report, will come out on Friday. CPI looks at the price change for those finished goods which are sold to consumers.

In addition, investors will continue to wait for details from the Treasury on the Financial Stability Plan.

Mortgage markets will be closed on Monday in observance of Presidents Day.

Mortgage-Backed Securities markets have showed little reaction to the economic data released this morning. January Retail Sales rose 1.0% from December, well above the consensus for a decline of -0.3%. It was the first increase in six months. Economists believe that more consumers postponed their purchases until after Christmas this year, and they don't see the strong data as the start of a new trend. Jobless Claims came in a little higher than expected. Continuing Jobless Claims rose to a new record high. No more economic data will be released today. A 30-yr Treasury auction will take place at 1:00 et.

The House and the Senate agreed yesterday on a compromise $789 billion fiscal stimulus plan. It is expected to pass before the end of the week. The Obama administration estimates that 3.5 million jobs will be added or saved by the plan. The Senate version contained a provision for a $15,000 homebuyer tax credit, but that was dropped in the final version. Instead, the $7,500 first time homebuyer tax credit will no longer need to be repaid.