For some of us that would rather be proactive then Reactive on what is taking/about to take place in the real estate market, I always appreciate a well thought out post by somebody such as Matt Heaton who tells it like it is on the new stimulus bill.

Politicians are reactive and certainly not proactive. They have little clue of spotting trends of what is taking place and that's where we need good information and good forecasters.... we need good real estate agents and not just reporters of statistics on what already happened.

Anyways... It was about a month ago when I was driving by a Bar/Restaurant and I had to slam on the brakes, cut somebody off and make an illegal U-Turn. This was not any ordinary Bar/Restaurant... it was a Bar/Restaurant that I ALMOST got to buy and manage for a client way back in 2003 offered for 1.6 Million dollars.

Back in 2003 we looking at this particular Bar with a limited gaming license (15 gaming machines and the really hot ticket to owning a bar in Las Vegas) and were provided the financials to justify the price. For some reason... the restaurant revenues certainly made absolutely no sense to me and in fact.. I suspected they were certainly cooked.

Unfortunately... before I could get more information that I was asking for when doing our own due dilligence... the place was sold. Oh well...$60,000 a month selling Pizza and a handful of people coming in everyday to the restaurant side just did not make sense in my book... LOL!

OK... Flash forward to around one month ago when I slammed on the Brakes and Made a U-Turn at the last moment...

What caught my eye was the Big "For Sale" sign in front of the Bar. I thought I would stop in and take a peek to see if it had been updated since the last time I had seen it. When I pulled up.. I noticed it was all boarded up. For me... certainly surprising due to the location and I had to think that whoever bought it was a complete moron for letting it go under. Keep in mind it's a hot location in Las Vegas near Summerlin with fantastic demographics and traffic reports that would make Nascar jealous.

I called the agent on the sign and inquired on the price and the agent gleefully informed me it was bank owned and available at the great price of $2.85 Million.

I had to ask that agent how a bar that was now closed could be worth more in these current economic times compared to 2003 when economic times were far more positive. He had no explanation because and thought it was a great deal because the previous owner had tried to sell it for $3.3 Million. Perhaps I should send him some notes on the amount of bank repos taking place and the number of Las Vegas residents that have cut back on the expenses and started saving money.

We've been so busy with Las Vegas short sales that I never really put too much thought on what has been going on with the commercial real estate market lately except knowing that it's seen better days. Obviously with all of the vacant buildings you see available for leasee all over Las Vegas. Maybe you see this in your market with vacant commercial real estate popping up all over the place like we see. When we come across a place like this with the surrounding demographics of over $70,000 within a one mile radius and the place is all shuttered up... it really makes you think.

Last week, Chili's suddenly closed down three restaurants in Las Vegas. My background knows that Chili's is a tight run ship (with yummy sizzling Fajitas) and I estimate at least 50 employees each times three for 150 employees total just got layed off.

The sad part is... I don't see anybody taking up their space anytime soon. Look around... payments for these places are coming due and unfortunately I see a new crisis popping it's head up and it's not pretty. Forget about the number of projects that have been halted due to the times... think about what has happened now that the giant pool of money has left the economy.

An $8000 tax credit to help the residential real estate market? Too little... way too late anyways and unfortunately our elected officials don't even seem to see what's coming... and like the residential real estate market... by the time they do, it will be too late.

Gloom and Doom? No intention.. Just trying to point out the obvious.

House of Cards - hidden message here is how much money was spent on everything from everybody making money on real estate... which has now dried up.

The Tax Revolt - We can only hope that half of what this guy says does not come true. NASTY....

The Real Estate Crash and the Effect on Your City -- Bury your head in the sand or be Proactive and really become a resource for your clients.

Happy Presidents Day -- Hugo Chavez gets his wish on our President's Day

President signs the new spendulus bill of massive debt and the DOW tanks... Oil is down and Gold is going up again. If you don't know why... start figuring it out.

Paul Francis, CRS
Las Vegas Real Estate
702.592.3058

Through some research I ended up over at the highly entertaining Housing Bubble Hall of Shame and came across the first signs of tax revolt in the state highly known for wasting taxpayers dollars.

(Disclosure -- this is a Great Real Estate Bubble Site full of information on what went wrong without killing REALTORS too much.. I've been following it for quite some time and you can learn a lot from the great information/research provided.)

Revolt Brews In California Counties

The bottom line is people are getting tired of Government mismanagement and/or waste. When you read into the super fat and porky stimulus bill just jammed down everybody's throats, you'll see plenty of federal taxpayers money getting set to bail out bad government behavior.

While you might think it's just some isolated incidents... it's real and one long time well respected forecaster is predicting much, much more.... even before the newest and greatest biggest porkulus bill ever passed through our Congress to bail out a wasteful state such as California.

Worse then the Great Depression? Scary thoughts but when you take into consideration all of the things Gerald Cerente talks about and what is already taking place... it's real... it's very real unless people wake up and mandate a new direction.

Research is pointing towards some nasty things including my previous posts. We cannot ignore the current direction taking place...

Paul Francis, CRS
Las Vegas Real Estate
702.592.3058

Fascinating new article that came out in The Atlantic full of historical trends to support theories:

How The Crash Will Reshape America

I saw a city or two that I used to live in but the one that stood out is Las Vegas for obvious reasons:

"But in the heady days of the housing bubble, some Sun Belt cities-Phoenix and Las Vegas are the best examples-developed economies centered largely on real estate and construction. With sunny weather and plenty of flat, empty land, they got caught in a classic boom cycle. Although these places drew tourists, retirees, and some industry-firms seeking bigger footprints at lower costs-much of the cities' development came from, well, development itself. At a minimum, these places will take a long, long time to regain the ground they've recently lost in local wealth and housing values. It's not unthinkable that some of them could be in for an extended period of further decline."

I came across this article while doing research on the current commercial real estate health for Las Vegas real estate for my Las Vegas Real Estate blog. The information contained has been quite fascinating to say the least and while we have been concentrating on the amount of residential Las Vegas foreclosures taking shape, it's important to understand and prepare for the upcoming commercial real estate collapse and what effect this will have.

People who invest in Commercial Real Estate generally have more money then your wannabe Las Vegas real estate investors who purchase single family homes as "investments" that have now come back to haunt everybody with their lax lending loans. While it's sad when somebody loses their home to foreclosure, it's extremely sad when somebody shuts down a business and lays off people they employ.

We currently have over 8,000 construction jobs in place for City Center Las Vegas alone and when this project finishes up in late 2009, you really have to wonder where they are all going to go since new construction is pretty much coming to a halt. There is no demand for new construction in Las Vegas so it's going to be really interesting as the next wave of failures comes on line. As far as I know, there is nothing in the new stimulus bill for Southern Nevada that will replace these 8,000 high paying jobs... payed for in the private sector and not the taxpayer. (In other words... the 8,000 jobs do not cost you anything unlike the jobs being created in the stimulus bill.)

I came across another study done by the FDIC on Commercial real estate constrution done all the way back in 1997 that highlighted the risks of all the overbuilding in Las Vegas... I'll be sharing this information on my Las Vegas Real Estate blog concerning the next crisis taking shape. Quite fascinating with all of the warning signs of overbuilding in Las Vegas and what this would to the commercial sector all the way back in 1997. In other words... it's been an avalanche ready to come down to bury a city built on the real estate boom... and the false economy it created.

Unfortunately it's very negative information but information that should not be ignored if you really want to represent clients in their best interest.

Stay Tuned...

How will the Real Estate Crisis change your city?

Paul Francis, CRS
Las Vegas Real Estate
702.592.305

Confused about what is going on with the real estate market? Wondering why real estate prices have crashed and now why the Federal Governement is asking you and your family to take on debt that will take generations to pay back?

Why is the Government bailing out Wall Street with your tax dollars?

Watch House of Cards on CNBC for an explanation of one of the best documentaries to explain what happened and the people involved.

Times:

* Saturday, February 14, 2009 at 7p/10p ET
* Sunday, February 15, 2009 at 9p ET
* Monday, February 16, 2009 at 6a/8p/12a ET
* Saturday, March 1, 2009 at 12a ET
* Sunday, March 15, 2009 at 9p ET

Something you need to keep in mind while you watch this program is the false economy that it created. As all of these people refinanced their homes to "have it all", keep in mind what this did for all of the businesses that were created with this false money. Think what this is going to do to the commercial real estate sector and the next crisis of 2009.

The latest stimulus bill is nothing more then false hope being created by more debt. Much like false home prices and false security ratings, the Trillion dollars must be paid back and the programs created will do little to solve the problem.

Much like the many people who took out loans they knew little about, the same loan that will be taken out by our Government is going to take us to a level where you don't have to worry about a home loan where the big bad bank takes your home away.. but a big bad loan where our freedom is taken away.

Hopefully if you watch the program, you understand what the solution is. It's not more debt to get us out of what was a false economy to begin with. And.. it's not tax cuts.. it's really the Government staying out of a problem they created in the first place and are now making it worse...

Paul Francis, CRS
Las Vegas Real Estate
702.592.3058

Real Simple:

I suggest taking a few minutes and reading this really good report from The Heritage Foundation -->

Ten Common Myths About Government Spending

"Economic misinformation begins with politicians, who are usually more concerned with winning the next election than with seeking "economic truth."

MYTH #1:
Government spending "pumps new money into the economy."

FACT:
Every dollar that government injects into the economy must first be taxed or borrowed from it.

And Then...

Visit this site --> http://www.pgpf.org/ ... make sure you spend 30 minutes watching that video because it is VERY, VERY disturbing.

The whole foreclosure crisis was created from The Giant Pool Of Money.. Listen to that podcast for the best explanation out there on what created foreclosures in the first place.

Finally... make sure you read over this on FDR's policies before you think Govt. programs are the solution --> Franklin D. Roosevelts Policies Extended the Great Depression by 7 Years..

Bailouts are only pork barrel spending with money going to self interest groups... HOW MANY more BILLIONS are going to be spent to catch on to this??

Government Spending is not the solution... WE ARE with the proper information being passed on...

Paul Francis, CRS
Las Vegas Real Estate
702.592.3058