Lenore Wilkas

We've heard good news in the lending arena today and that means the purse strings are finally opening up with lenders. If you are thinking about buying in Hillsborough, this is a Great Time to do so. Prices are trending downward and homes are remaining on the market longer with about 1/3 of them receiving price reductions and the others likely to soften on price should a solid offer show up. Last week there were 45 homes on the market in Hillsborough with the least expensive priced at $1,895,000 and the most expensive home at $18,000,000. 5 properties were absorbed (they either sold, or were removed from the market for other reasons). And yes, there is a huge difference in price and quality of home priced at the top of the price point, but getting into Hillsborough for under $2 million dollars is tough, so here's you chance!

How many days are they on the Market?

On of the key indicators of a real estate market is Day on Market and the average number of days housing has sat in Hillsborough is currently at 120. It's not quite as high as it was back in January but it's been climbing and will likely continue to climb as the close of the year looms upon us. What does this mean for you? It could mean bargains, if you're a bargain hunter. In this kind of market many seller's need to sell their homes in order to move on to new opportunities. If they have a big equity it could mean all kinds of interesting options for you.

Price Per Square Foot

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Last week the city of Burlingame saw 56 houses on the market sitting an average of 84 days. The Average price for all of these homes was $1,472,782. We saw a spread ranging from a low of $595,000 for a small cottage to $3,298,000 for a massive home. Last week 4 homes were absorbed from the inventory, meaning that they were either sold or had listings that were withdrawn, expired or canceled.

Median Price

The Median Price for a home in Burlingame is $1,388,000 and it's held around that median price for a while. The median sized lot in Burlingame is 6000 square feet and on that sits the median sized house of 2000 square feet with 3 bedrooms and 2 baths. This house is likely about 68 years old. The homes in Burlingame are generally older, many much older than the median, and larger.

Inventory

Inventory has dropped from early summer, which in itself isn't unusual but it's been at a plateau for several weeks. When this happens one expects the price to drop, but this is not the case for Burlingame, or for any of our local markets. Prices have come down a bit, but not dramatically. It's important to understand that the spike in the chart for 2008 doesn't mean prices jumped up a lot, because we have such a small number of homes for sale, it can take one high priced listing to skew the chart like that.

Median Price

The Median Price, while far below the spike we saw in the frenzy market of 2006, is a little below what it as in 2007 but above the lows of this year. It's holding where it is. Altos Research, the company that we subscribe to for all of our data feels this is a good indicator for the durability of this market.

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What's up with the summer weather around here?

People visiting our area for the first time during the summer are often surprised at finding cold weather. "What's up with the weather around here?" they ask. Oh, The Fog? It's 60 degrees! It's the middle of summer! Cold winds! Burr! Welcome to Northern California and specifically to the San Francisco Bay Area. Our world is affected by the cold Pacific Ocean and the hot Central Valley of California.

San Francisco is at the tip of a peninsula. To the west is the ocean. To the east is the bay. Across from the bay is a body of land that extends on to the east and the Sierra Mountains. In our area, you can pick your weather like you pick your clothes. Some like it warm. If that's you, you can live anywhere but San Francisco. Some like it hot. Is that you? Go east, or south, or north, my friend. And, some like it cool. If that's you, stay near San Francisco and the bay or into the city itself if you complain when it gets hot. The picture above shows fog hugging the coast between Daily City and Half Moon Bay while the tip of the peninsula, San Francisco and the rest of the bay is clear.

Why is it so cold in the summer?

The arctic winds can come down with the jet stream, even in summer. That is what brings the cold air. This cold air collides with the hot air coming from the central valley and, voilà, fog. That fog is really our air conditioning. Think of it as Free air conditioning.

Look at the map above and the numbers. #1, San Francisco is at the tip of the peninsula and the yellow areas are where the fog generally sits during summer. As you move down the Peninsula from San Francisco the weather warms up. What's the Reason? You're moving further away from the tip of the peninsula where San Francisco sits. The further away from the ocean you go, the warmer it becomes. the areas between #3 and #4 are pretty wide and the fog sits along the coast but doesn't do much inland during the day. It will roll back over the hills at night to cool us down, but it burns off in the morning and the bay side warms up.

We have several fog lines on the peninsula. The last one sits in San Bruno. San Mateo might be 80 degrees and San Bruno, only about 10 miles north, might be 60 with cold winds. We have what is known as micro-climates. These are areas within our cities that have warmer or cooler weather. Where you can go several blocks and get a different kind of weather. In San Francisco for example, you can live in fog during the summer, yet work in sunshine downtown. The weather within the city differs because of the hills that stop the fog from flowing in. This same thing happens for the north bay, the east bay and the south bay. Our hills direct the flow of the fog and winds throughout the bay area. In our part of the world, the mid-Peninsula, you can have cool or warm weather. Other than that, it's pretty consistent with summers anywhere from the low 70's to the mid-80's.

Fog affects our weather daily during the summer.

Fog can lay on the coast, yet in San Mateo, only 12 miles to the east, it's 80 degrees and sunny. The difference in temperature from Half Moon Bay and San Mateo can be 20+ degrees. By evening, the fog will often have rolled in over the hills, and cooled the areas down to the mid-50's. Cool sleeping weather. Air conditioning without having to pay for it!

We do get heat waves

Every place gets heat waves, but they generally don't last more than 3 or 4 days around here. Just as we stop complaining about it being so hot, say at 90 degrees or so, the fog comes rolling in and everyone breathes a sigh. Why does it take 3 or 4 days before the fog comes back? Remember what I said about the arctic winds flowing down from Alaska? Well, the Pacific Ocean off or our coast is generally about 53 degrees. Burr. You don't go into that water without a wet suit because it is seriously cold, and could kill you pretty fast if you're in it too long. Locals don't go into the Pacific around here often because of the strong undertow all along the coast and the cold water. You can be swept out into the deep waters without realizing it. It's strong and dangerous.

Collisions of Air Flow

The cold water and the cold air rising from it collide with the hot air from the east bay, and the cold air wins. Most of the time that is. There are some summers when El Nino takes over, the warmer southern Pacific waters are brought north via ocean currents and we warm up. On those occasions we have warm summers, even in San Francisco. This happens very infrequently and surprises the locals as much as our visitors. See the blue in the ocean? That's our usual cold water. The yellow is warm water and this begins around Santa Barbara and southern California about 300 miles to the south.

Take Your Pick

If you're considering a move to our beautiful peninsula, you will be able to not only pick your house and school, but weather, too. I don't think there is any other place in the US that allows that! We're lucky to live in an area with nature's free air conditioning. This is the reason why you see so few homes with air conditioners on the peninsula. As you go north you see two fog lines, the first is in San Bruno, the second South San Francisco that I mentioned above. Go south and the weather warms more and more, the fog only comes in late at night. The winds from the fog come up after 4 PM, providing a welcome cooling. Go east across the bay and there can be areas with weather is almost as cool as parts of San Francisco because of gaps of hills allowing fog to blow into the valleys and other places where it is consitently hot. Yet, the same thing takes place there, nature's air conditioner turns on almost every evening of the summer to cool them down, too. They just don't cool down as much as the peninsula does.

Millbrae is one of the coveted cities within our market, with great schools, a lively downtown and easy access to both US 101 and 280. Sitting near SFO, at the hub of BART and featuring great weather, what's not to like? How about the median price for a single family home? Hum, yes, that could be an issue in today's market, especially when it's been going up and not down like so many hope for. Altos Research's report for last week's real estate market shows the median priced home was $1,122,500 for a 58 year old 3 bedroom 2 bath home sitting on the usual 6000 sqare foot lot. This isn't a huge house, since it's likely to be around 1600 square feet.

The median price is trending upward and has been for several weeks. Now, what's median today will change next week since it depends on what's on the market for that week, but with an average list price of $1,191,493 it's not likely we will see much of a shift in the summer selling season.

Looking at the Market Action Index, with the red line the delineator between a Buyer's Market and a Seller's Market, Millbrae sits at 20, a Cool Buyer's Market with trends upward. As you can see, bottom was earlier this year and hopefully we are past it for good.

So what does all of this mean to you? If you live in Millbrae it's good news since your property may not have lost value. If you're a buyer, you missed the bottom on the market. If you're a bargain hunter, and want to buy a home later this year, wait until November or December or January when there are fewer people competing to buy and prices are traditionally low. In other words, you missed the bottom of the market. Money for lending is still pretty cheap historically, and if you can qualify for a loan, move on it now and buy now. Prices aren't going down around here and money will possibly cost more in the future.

Want the full report on Millbrae or any of the 6 other cities we follow? Just ask me.

Does this beat anywhere esle in the country?

This is the first time I have ever seen someone actually pumping gas at this station. This gas station has the highest gas prices in the entire San Francisco Bay Area!