Marcy Moyer

Who Is Selling In Palo Alto? Updated 04/11/09

On 1/31/09 I wrote the following blog:

There has been a lot of speculation about what will happen to the market in Palo Alto. Will it drip 30%, drop 10%, improve in 6 months? Most of the argument against Palo Alto having a lot more decrease in home value, is the thought that most people here did not get bad loans and therefore do not have to sell. If most people don't have to sell, the prices should not go down too much, but if more people selling do have to sell that would bode for sharper decreases. I thought it would be interesting to see as best I can, who is selling. I have broken the listings up into over 2 million and under 2 million for the asking price and put the listings into the following categories:

I am updating this on 4/12/09 The numbers on the left are from 01/31/09 and on the right are from 04/11/09

Over 2 Million:

•10 New construction 16 New construction

•5 Vacant 6 Vacant

•7 Owner occupied 20 Owner Occupied

•1 Short Sale (this is also new construction but I put it in short sale) 1 Same house on Kingsley

•1 Rental 0 Rented

•1 to be built 2 To be built but has structure one of these is the same

0 Bank owned 0

Under 2 Million:

•10 New construction 12 New Construction

•14 Vacant 32 Vacant properties

•17 Owner occupied 32 Owner Occupied

•0 Short Sale 0 Short Sales

•1 Bank Owned 0 Bank Owned

5 Rentals 10 Rentals

1 Stanford property 3 Stanford Properties

On Jan 31^st I wrote these comments.

So what does this mean? Quite frankly I am not entirely sure, but I believe that new and vacant properties are likely to have more flexibility in pricing than owner occupied homes. The one big exception to that rule would be short sales, but as you can see there is only 1 in Palo Alto. There is a much higher percentage of new and vacant homes in the listings over 2 million, so maybe it means there is more room for prices to drop in this segment. We'll see. I will keep you updated about who is selling over the next few months and how that may relate to what the market is doing.

My thoughts today:

The inventory is almost double what is was in Jan. but the increase has not been entirely across the board.

Over 2 million the number of new and vacant homes has gone up a little, but not doubled, but the number of owner occupied homes has almost tripled. The common wisdom is that if you want to get the most for your home, don't sell now. My guess is that at least some portion of these people have to sell and we may some short sale activity or just more price flexibility in this segment, although I am not predicting a huge wave here yet.

Under 2 million there is a doubling of rental, owner occupied and vacant but not new construction. A lot of the new construction in PA is in the townhouse classification so not part of my analysis.

Although the numbers do not point to it at this time I think that we are going to see some short sales in the under 2 million range also. My rational for this is that it is more likely that the newer (last 10 years ) owners of these properties have loans, or have re-financed. 54% of the US homeowners owe more on their homes than they are worth. Some of those people have to live in Palo Alto and some of those people will have to sell for a variety of reasons including life changes, job changes or losses, family issues. If they need to sell they will need to sell short. The thing to look for will be a big spike in owner occupied homes for sale compared to the relative number of homes for sale.

Another group of short sellers could be builders who can't sell and can't make payments. We may see more of those in the over 2 million market, but it hasn't happened yet.

If you are interested in finding the final selling price of any home, anywhere, you can do it on my web site. Go to www.marcymoyer.com and click on Cyberhome Home Valuation. You can then type in any address next to the search icon and get the county records.

If you need anything else please feel free to contact me. I am here to help you.

Marcy Moyer Intero Real Estate

marcy@marcymoyer.com

650-619-9285

www.marcymoyer.com

Palo Alto Single Family Home Market Update 04-08-09

As of today this is the snapshot of the Palo Alto single family home market:

136 Active listings

32 Pending sales

8 Closed sales this week

What does this mean? There has not been much change in inventory this week in active listings and 3 more pending sales which is a 10% increase. This may be because the easing up a little on jumbo loans. B of A has a loan with 20% down up to a million and a half dollar loan. Again, the over 2 million market is very slow with 48 active listings and 6 pending sales. Under 2 million there are 89 active listings and 26 pending sales, less than a1 to 4 ratio of pending to active, which is not terrific, but about average for many other surrounding cities. Another lesson for this week, if you list a house far enough below comps it will still sell with multiple offers over asking price.

Here are the solds from the past week on MLS:

Address	City	Beds	Bath	DOM	CDOM	LOE	SqFt	$/SqFt	Lot(SqFt)	List Price	Age	Sale Price
SOLD
800 E Greenwich Pl	Palo Alto	5	4+	28	28	34	5,069	$798.97	10,454	$4,098,000	6	$4,050,000
1444 Pitman Av	Palo Alto	4	2 1/2	34	34	14	2,500	$680	7,875	$1,850,000	53	$1,700,000
425 Alder Ln	Palo Alto	5	3 1/2	20	20	29	2,893	$501.21		$1,495,900	1	$1,450,000
3474 Kenneth Dr	Palo Alto	4	2	5	5	36	1,659	$754.07	6,534	$1,249,000	52	$1,251,000
2672 Kipling St	Palo Alto	3	2	10	10	28	1,533	$815.39	5,662	$1,095,000	53	$1,250,000
3390 Greer Rd	Palo Alto	5	2	15	15	30	1,965	$610.69	7,381	$1,388,000	52	$1,200,000
3070 Ramona St	Palo Alto	3	2	25	25	24	1,411	$761.87	6,000	$1,089,000	54	$1,075,000
405 Oregon Av	Palo Alto	3	1	58	58	29	1,230	$853.66	8,125	$1,138,000	59	$1,050,000
3244 Waverley St	Palo Alto	2	1	7	7	29	925	$1,054.05	6,250	$998,000	59	$975,000
AVERAGE VALUES			22	22	28	2,132	$758.88	7,285	$1,600,100	43	$1,555,667

Pittman was originally listed for $1,975,000.

Greer was originally listed for $1,488,000.

If you are interested in finding the final selling price of any home, anywhere, you can do it on my web site. Go to www.marcymoyer.com and click on Cyberhome Home Valuation. You can then type in any address next to the search icon and get the county records.

If you need anything else please feel free to contact me. I am here to help you.

Marcy Moyer Intero Real Estate

marcy@marcymoyer.com

650-619-9285

www.marcymoyer

Mountain View Condo/Townhome Home Market Update 03-29-09

As of today this is the snapshot of the Mountain View condo/town home market:

83 Active listings

27 Pending sales

10 Closed sales this month

What does this mean? There has not been an increase in inventory this month, with 83 active listings instead of in the high 60's. The ratio of pending sales to active listings is holding at about 2.5 to 1. There are 37 listings under $500,000 and 21 pending sales in this price range and only 6 pending sales over 550K with the highest one being $629K at the new development Gables End. This is pretty consistent throughout the bay area with most of sales happening under 550K.

If you are interested in finding the final selling price of any home, anywhere, you can do it on my web site. Go to www.marcymoyer.com and click on Cyberhome Home Valuation. You can then type in any address next to the search icon and get the county records.

If you need anything else please feel free to contact me. I am here to help you.

Marcy Moyer Intero Real Estate

marcy@marcymoyer.com

650-619-9285

www.marcymoyer.com

Palo Alto, Ca. Single Family Home Market Update 03-24-09

As of today this is the snap shot of the Palo Alto market:

137 Active Listings

25 Pending Sales

6 closed sales since 3/16/09

Here are the solds:

Address	City	Beds	Bath	DOM	CDOM	LOE	SqFt	$/SqFt	Lot(SqFt)	List Price	Age	Sale Price
SOLD
832 Waverley St	Palo Alto	3	3 1/2	7	7	21	2,403	$871.83	4,356	$2,095,000	4	$2,095,000
4270 Wilkie	Palo Alto	5	4+	15	32	38	3,312	$581.22	8,316	$1,995,000	1	$1,925,000
4272 Wilkie Wy	Palo Alto	5	4+	7	7	42	3,345	$575.49	8,000	$2,100,000		$1,925,000
1111 Cedar St	Palo Alto	1	1	5	5	8	695	$2,726.62	10,000	$1,895,000	99	$1,895,000
1638 Portola Av	Palo Alto	4	2	51	51	45	2,112	$781.25	5,250	$1,750,000	81	$1,650,000
1252 Cedar St	Palo Alto	2	1	44	307	78	989	$1,314.46	8,109	$1,588,000	85	$1,300,000
2321 Oberlin St	Palo Alto	5	3 1/2	102	102	16	4,000		6,250	$2,695,000	1	- -
AVERAGE VALUES			33	73	35	2,408	$1,141.81	7,183	$2,016,857	45	$1,798,333

4270 Wilkie originally listed at $2,425,000.

1111 Ceder originally listed at $2,137,000.

1638 Portola originally listed at $1,800,000.

What does this mean?

Active listings are up and pending sales are steady. What strikes me is that active sales are up during the week of spring break for Palo Alto schools, traditionally a week when the inventory does not increase. It is another sign that this market is not like other markets we have experienced in Palo Alto. In the past, when sellers expected their homes to sell in a week, they would not usually list during a week where many families were out of town. Now, sellers don't expect a quick sale, and many families are not going away any way.

If you are interested in finding the final selling price of any home, anywhere, you can do it on my web site. Go to www.marcymoyer.com and click on Cyberhome Home Valuation. You can then type in any address next to the search icon and get the county records.

If you need anything else please feel free to contact me. I am here to help you.

Marcy Moyer Intero Real Estate

marcy@marcymoyer.com

650-619-9285

Palo Alto Single Family Home Market Update 03-15-09

As of today this is the snapshot of the Palo Alto single family home market:

125 Active listings

26 Pending sales

4 Closed sales this week

What does this mean? There has not been much change in inventory this week, either in active listings or pending sales. Also, the over 2 million market is very slow with 37 active listings and 5 pending sales. Under 2 million there are 61 active listings and 15 pending sales, 1 to 4 ratio of pending to active, which is not terrific, but about average for many other surrounding cities.

Here are the solds from the past week on MLS:

Address	City	Beds	Bath	DOM	CDOM	LOE	SqFt	$/SqFt	Lot(SqFt)	List Price	Age	Sale Price
SOLD
3111 David Av	Palo Alto	4	3 1/2	12	12	39	2,815	$699.82	6,908	$1,998,000	1	$1,970,000
720 Holly Oak Dr	Palo Alto	4	2	7	7	29	1,880	$750	6,784	$1,398,000	50	$1,410,000
1032 Fulton St	Palo Alto	3	2	7	7	30	1,200	$1,004.17	5,600	$1,100,000	89	$1,205,000
4205 Ponce Dr	Palo Alto	4	2	43	43	41	1,717	$579.5	5,700	$999,500	34	$995,000
3249 Maddux Dr	Palo Alto	4	2	15	15	36	1,372	$662.4	7,200	$894,500	57	$908,811
AVERAGE VALUES			17	17	35	1,797	$739.18	6,438	$1,278,000	46	$1,297,762

David was originally listed at $2,398,000 and Ponce was originally listed at $1,025,000.

If you are interested in finding the final selling price of any home, anywhere, you can do it on my web site. Go to www.marcymoyer.com and click on Cyberhome Home Valuation. You can then type in any address next to the search icon and get the county records.

If you need anything else please feel free to contact me. I am here to help you.

Marcy Moyer Intero Real Estate

marcy@marcymoyer.com

650-619-9285

www.marcymoyer.com