The S.F. Chronicle reported this morning that the Case-Shiller/S&P Home Price Index for the S.F. metro area, which includes Marin County, rose 2.8 percent in August , following an increase of 3.3 percent from June to July and a 3.8% increase the previous month. This index tracks changes in home values by comparing recent home sales with previous prices for the SAME home. This eliminates the bias introduced when one segment of the market is more active than another, which has been the case recently, with multiple offers on low-priced homes. More activity in that segment, which has seen more than its share of short slaes and foreclosures brings down the widely reported median price when in fact the typical home my actually be increasing in value.
For the complete report, see http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/10/28/BU6F1ABEUI.DTL.
Peter Nielsen, Peter@MarinRealtyExperts.com, 415-472-6243
I lost my cell phone today, so it's time to upgrade to a smart phone. What do you recommend? The Blackberry?
The Big Picture: The Marin County market continues to struggle, but with some bright spots. The volume of sales continues to increase; median prices have risen by 3% for single family homes, and are down just 1% for condos. Prices however are still down about 10% from where they were year ago. Sales for homes priced under $750,000 continue to have the most activity, with fully 70% of all homes under contract being in this price range. In the lower-priced homes and condos, we are seeing multiple offers, with homes in Novato and condos in San Rafael showing a surge in price. The number of distressed properties (short sales and foreclosures) listed on the MLS remains steady at 119.
Prices: The median price for a single family residence in Marin in Q3-2009 was $800,000, down 11% from the same quarter a year ago but up 3% from the previous quarter. The median price for a condo was $355,000, down 8% from the same quarter a year ago but down only 1% from the previous quarter. A more accurate reading is that for each area, within which home values are more comparable. The Q3 median price by area and the percent change from the same period in 2008 and from the previous quarter (Q2-2009) is shown below:
Inventory and Time on Market: As of Oct 11, 2009, there were 1,046 residential properties on the market in Marin, down from the same quarter last year when there were 1,104 homes on the market. The median time it takes to sell remains steady at 65 days on market. With 606 homes having sold this quarter, the time it would take to sell the current "inventory" has dropped from 6 months to 5 months.
Buyers or Sellers Market?
It's generally considered a Buyers Market when less than 25% of listings are in escrow, a Balanced Market when 25-40% are in escrow, and a Sellers Market when more than 40% are in escrow. By this measure,
- It is even more of a Seller's Market for homes priced less than $750,000 (51% are in escrow).
- It remains a Buyer's Market for homes priced between $750,000 - $1,750,000 (20% are in escrow).
- And it's a Strong Buyer's Market for homes priced more than $1,750,000 (only 10% are in escrow).
For a complete report, including prices by town, click here:
www.MarinRealtyExperts.com/Current_Market_Report.
Peter Nielsen, Peter@MarinRealtyExperts.com 415-472-6243
Things are looking up for this epic adventure! After the owner called to say that her lenders won't do a loan modification after all, I re-posted this short sale on the MLS. The next day, the owner called again and said that she didn't want to hold out for an investor that would rent back to her. Instead, she plans to move to a rental she has found, and wants to avoid foreclosure and just get this condo sold. That opened it up to a much larger pool of buyers and within a couple of days we had an all-cash, over-asking-price offer. Now, the real work begins again -- to get lender approvals on the current offer.
For the complete saga, you can read the back issues of my blog posts.
Peter Nielsen, Peter@MarinRealtyExperts.com 415-472-6243
I submitted an offer for a client on a short sale on April 29th. They approved it today, Sept 29th! It took 5 months, after a couple minor adjustments to price, a question of who would pay for a $3350 sewer repair, and after the buyer paid for an appraisal to support his price. Meanwhile, the lender lost 5 months of mortgage payments while they watched the market drop down to our offer price! It's good that I had a patient buyer.
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