Mark Lomas

The Analyan Report

The city by city report out this week shows Novato and San Rafael continue to be strong performers, pushed along (particularly in Novato) by REO (bank owned properties) sales at bargain prices. Novato at 34.7% in contract for single family homes and condo sales combined. Normally we would characterize this as being within a breath of a "strong seller's market which we think of as 35% or more in contract. This market is much more sensitive to price so sellers should be dressing up their homes and pricing them for today's market. Greenbrae turned in the only other solid performance, but on such a light volume that one unit more of less could have swung the statistics another way. It appears that everything else within central and southern Marin is in a strong "buyer's territory."
Novato City Hall

Single family residences total listings are down to 889. Everything is a buyer's or in a strong buyer's market on a county wide basis except under the 1 million dollar mark and under the entry level market which is at 26.9% in contract, just into seller's market territory. Sellers should be aware that this is partially a misnomer as sales are very sensitive to price, presentation, and buyer perception.

Here are the stats for the 7 days that ended on December 2, 2008: There were 40 new listings, and 32 price reductions. 28 listings went contingent, 9 pending, 20 sold,41 expired, and 33 were withdrawn or temporarily taken off the market.

(San Francisco Yacht Club Marina in Belvedere) Condos and townhomes lost just a bit of ground from last week, but the under 1 million dollar mark segment (all but 8 units) still at 34.18% in contract, a very strong showing and close to the 35% " strong sellers market" threshold. The condo inventory is down to 283 from last week's inventory of 306. For the 7 days ended on December 2, there were 10 new listings and 17 price reductions. 7 condos went contingent, 9 pending,13 sold,18 expired,and 14 were withdrawn or temporarily off the market.

Special thanks to Fred Anlyan for his contribution to this website. Fred's email is: fred.anlyan@cbnorcal.com

Mortgage Rates Tumble
Borrowers seek to capitalize on tumbling mortgage rates.
For the full story from the Marin Indpendent Journal:
Mortgages in Marin: Lower Loan Rates Sought

JUMBO (over $625,500 - $4,000,000) 0 points 10/1 Int Only....6.875% *
7/1 Int Only......6.125% *
5/1 Int Only......5.875% *
*One year prepayment penalty 1 point
10/1 Int Only..6.625%
7/1 Int Only....5.875%
5/1 Int Only....5.625% JUMBO-CONFORMING ($417,000-$625,500) 0 points
30 Yr. Fixed...5.750%
5/1 ARM........6.250%
1 points
30 Yr. Fixed....5.375%
5/1 ARM.........5.875%
CONFORMING (under $417,000)
0 points
30 Yr. Fixed....5.625%
1 points
30 Yr. Fixed....5.250%

Ann Rodgers, executive director of the Marin Community Food Bank sits among bags ready to be distributed at the Food Banks warehouse. The Marin Community Food Bank agency gives out 2 million pounds of goods each year and will provide meals to more than 3,500 families during Thanksgiving, Christmas, and Hanukkah.



Marin Community Food Bank

75 Digital Drive, Novato, California 94949
41... / fax: 415-883-5178

You can always deliver donations to the food bank at the above address. You can also write a check and send it to that address. The Food Bank spends $150,000 a year buying traditional food to fill out the Holiday boxes. You can also leave food donations under the 20 foot tall turkey at the Town Center in Corte Madera. The turkey was created by employees of Lucasfilm's Industrial Light and Magic, and has been a fixture at the mall for the last 13 years.

Marin Independent Journal Article: One Giant Turkey Feeds the Hungry



Come see John "Lucky" Lister's massive mechanical Turkey to collect canned food for the needy (bring canned foods!) at the Corte Madera Town Center!

How did we find ourselves in such an economic mess? How could the powers that be not have the foresight to see what was right around the corner? We've been led to believe that the sub prime mortgage melt down was the cause, when the truth of the matter is - it's the derivatives, created by the repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act by a greedy Banking industry.
The Glass-Steagall Act, passed in 1933, mandated the separation of commercial and investment banking in order to protect depositors from the the hazards of risky investment and speculation - the cause of the 1929 Stock Market crash. It worked fine for 50 years until the banking industry began lobbying for its repeal during the 1980s.
The main cheerleader for the repeal was Phil Gramm, but there is plenty of blame to go around here. Both Republican and Democratic Senators and Congressmen supported this disgraceful bow to the banking industry which was eagerly signed into law by Bill Clinton in 1999.
According to Wikipedia, many economist have criticized the repeal of the Glass-Steagal Act as contributing to the current economic volatility in the Stock Market. The banking industy laid out more the 200 million dollars for lobbying in 1998 according to the Center for Responsive Politics. The banking industry succeeded in their two decades long effort to repeal the act. This lust for banking largesse is as wanton among Democrats as Republicans - right up to the current campaign, according to the Phoenix Business Journal. Both McCain and Obama have accepted substantial amounts of money from Wall Street bankers, investment and securities firms, and their executives during this campaign cycle.


Personally, I believe the Glass-Steagall Act needs to be re-enacted. Before we bail out the banking industry, insurance firms, and Wall Street some reforms and regulations need to be put into place or the game will just continue.
The American International Group - AIG - upon receiving $85 Billion Dollars from the government recently sent executives to a $440,000 retreat at a posh California resort? Where's the oversight? How many times can the taxpayer's trust be betrayed before someone steps in and does something? Congress seems to only act in times of crisis... is anyone listening?!
Late in the game our government realized what had to be saved was not the housing market or the dollar, but the financial derivitives industry: and the precepice from which it had to be saved was an "event of default" that could collapse a quadrillion dollar derivatives bubble, a bubble that could take the entire global banking system down with it.
Right now derivatives represent the biggest financial market in the world. Derivitives are financial instruments that have no intrinsic value, basically they're just bets. "The point everyone misses" wrote economist Robert Chapman a decade ago,"is that buying derivatives is not investing. It's gambling, insurance and high stakes bookmaking. Derivatives create nothing and they serve to enrich non producers at the expense of the people who do create real goods and services." As bets, you can hedge your bet that something will go up by placing a side bet that it will go down. Hedge funds hedge bets in the derivatives market. Bets can be placed on anything, from the price of tea in China to the movements of specific markets.

What to do? Re-enact the Glass-Steagall Act for starters. Separate commercial banking from the stock market. Then, have Congress focus on the Dirivatives Bubble and articulate a solution, simply and clearly. Steve Krofts on 60 Minutes last week did a great job of explaining what's happening. Where's the political discourse?
Just my opinion.

The current issue of the San Francisco Business Times has a special supplement "Luxury Living" that features the top 4 Zip Codes in the Bay Area where property values continue to go up despite the general downturn of the real estate market. One of those Zip Codes is 94920 (Tiburon and Belvedere) here in Marin County.

A brief excerpt from the article: Yes, residents cite the excellent public schools, the burgeoning sense of community, and the Tiburon International Film Festival as reasons for moving to tony Tiburon or Belvedere, but really, in Marin's highest earning Zip Code it all comes down to the views.
You'd be hard pressed to find a house on Belvedere at any price that doesn't have a glimpse of water. At an average sales price last year of almost $3.9 million dollars, a view may not be too much to ask.
"One of the economic factors that increases desirability is there's very little land, if any to build on," said Mark Lomas , a realtor with Frank Howard Allen and a Tiburon/Belvedere resident since 1976. " To build, people usually have to buy a property, and gut it."

Mark Lomas with fellow realtor Kirsten Wolfe preview an unlisted property on Belvedere Island that is being offered for over 8 million dollars. For more information about this spectacular property located on Belvedere Avenue (Not on MLS) contact Mark Lomas at: 415-789-7777 or Kirsten Wolfe 415-789-7724.
For the whole story from the San Francisco Buisness Times click: San Francisco Business Times Article