Mark Thorngren

All About County and City Subsidized Housing in Ventura County

Many folks coming to Ventura County find the home buying process to be a daunting task. Without a good credit score, a large income or substantial down payment, things can be just plain tough. To tell the truth, there are many realtors and real estate consultants that have very little knowledge of what kind of help is available to these folks. Everyone seems to rely on lenders or mortgage brokers for knowledge of financial assistance programs. Most lenders have some kind of in-house programs or might even know a little bit about FHA and CAL-HFA programs. That's where most home buyer assistance knowledge gets a little thin.

Last week I was browsing our local newspapers real estate news and came across and article about the Area Housing Authority of the County of Ventura. I've heard of some of their programs before but had never found source material. I felt like a gold miner that had just stumbled across the mother lode. I downloaded 31 pages of their material and had to quit because I was using up all my printers color cartridges. There is a very large amount of helpful information on their wonderful website. Check out http://www.ahacv.org/home_buyers_workshop.shtml.

This page will give you time, place and date for the next home buyer workshops. The following information is taken directly from their website.

The Area Housing Authority is committed to serving the community by being a resource for housing information. With the skyrocketing prices of homes in Ventura County, first-time home buyers are often overwhelmed with the decision of whether to buy a home here, continue renting, or move to a cheaper area.

Many new home buyers are unaware of State and local programs that help with down-payments, closing costs, and lower interest loans. Households with income between $55,000 and $113,000 may qualify for a variety of assistance programs.

The Area Housing Authority sponsors educational home buying workshops in English and Spanish several times throughout the year. The workshops are provided through a mutual agreement with experts in local, State and federal funding resources.

Workshops cover tax benefits, raising your FICO score, and loan options for first-time buyers available through the state of California.

To find out more or to reserve a spot in an upcoming workshop, please call 1-800-549-0337, extension 167. Seating is limited at our workshops and we encourage you to reserve your place to ensure adequate seating.

To speak with Housing Authority staff regarding a workshop, please call 805-480-9991, extension 235.

For a schedule of upcoming workshops, please click here or go to http://www.ahahomebuyingschool.com/ .

To find information on Housing Programs which include:

-Section 8

-Low Rent Public Housing

-Agency Owned/Managed Housing

-City Sponsored Rental Assistance

Click on http://www.ahacv.org/index.shtml & click again on the Housing Programs Tab (left side)

The Area Housing Authority of the County of Ventura serves the cities of Camarillo, Simi Valley, Moorpark, Thousand Oaks, Ojai, Fillmore and the unincorporated areas of Ventura County.

So what happens if you don't live in one of those 7 areas?

Easy. Oxnard. Port Hueneme, Santa Paula and the City of San Buenaventura (Ventura) all have their own housing authorities which you can find contact information for at: http://www.ahacv.org/community_resources.shtml.

None of these programs are exactly the same, but most of them provide a degree of benefit and usually can be combined with FHA or CAL-HFA loan programs to provide most of your lending needs. The combination of programs is really remarkable help for first time buyers. By the way, the definition of a first time buyer is not what you might think. It can be someone who has not purchased a home for 3 years. Check with your lender and Housing Authority folks for details.

For those folks who are having a really difficult time just finding a place to lay their heads, there is some provision for them as well at: http://www.ahacv.org/emergency_housing.shtml

This is some really great information on local agencies that provide emergency housing assistance.

Here is the basic info from that link.

The Area Housing Authority does not provide emergency housing services. Please contact the agencies listed below for emergency housing information.

You may also call the 211 Help Line by dialing 2-1-1 from any land line phone (cell phone users, 800-339-9597. The 211 Help Line provides information about and referrals to health and human services, including emergency housing. The 211 Help Line is available 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, and multi-lingual service is available.


Homeless Information and Referral
(County of Ventura, Human Services Agency)
Phone:
805-987-6715 or 805-484-2082
Hours:
M - F 8am to 4:30pm
Website:
www.vchsa.org


Ventura County Homeless and Housing Coalitions
(temporary winter shelter locations)
Website:
www.vchhc.org


Ojai Community Assistance Program
(through HELP of Ojai)
Phone:
805-640-3320
Hours:
M - Th
8:00am - 12:00pm and 1:00pm to 5:00pm
Friday
8:00am - 12:00pm and 1:00pm to 4:00pm


Coalition to End Family Violence
Phone:
805-983-6014
24-hr Hotline:
800-300-2181 or 805-56-1111
Website:
www.thecoalition.org


RAIN Project Transitional Housing
(County of Ventura)
Phone:
805-389-3308 (24-hrs)
Address:
1732 South Lewis Road, Camarillo


Community Action of Ventura County
(Goldberg House)
Phone:
805-648-6088
Address:
946 E. Thompson Blvd., Ventura,
Hours:
M - Th: 8 am - 3:30 pm
Friday: 8 am - 3:00 pm


Simi Valley Homeless Partnership
Phone:
805-527-2533

Housing Reports and Necessary Documents http://www.ahacv.org/housing_reports_and_docs.shtml

There is a great deal more information available for renters, folks looking for the reduced price housing maintained by the various housing authorities and income limits to qualify. Some of these programs require you to use their approved lenders. Others allow you to shop for the best deal on your new home mortgage program costs. There is everything here you need to get started except a really good local mortgage broker to help steer you through this sea of information.

I can fix that. Call Aracely Avila (805) 504-0221 or email Aracely@YieldFinancial.com.

Of course you are welcome to contact me or browse my website for additional Chamber of Commerce websites, or the individual city websites and county information. http://www.markthorngren.com/.

Warmest Regards,

Mark Thorngren

The Village at the Park development in Camarillo http://www.VillageAtThePark.com/index.html/ is approaching the final sales stages. We are beginning to see some resale numbers from those homes purchased in the earlier sales years. I have done some comparisons of those homes offered during the last 12 months of activity. These numbers are derived from our local MLS and the Ventura County Coastal Association of Realtors. The comparisons include 68 homes and are broken down into $100,000 increments which run from the lowest priced home at $398,990 which was an expired listing in October of 2006, all the way up to $1,049,000 for a home that is being actively marketed right now. The information presented here does not intentionally include rentals.

This is my own analysis and does not include information on the new homes still being built and offered by the various builders at Village at the Park. I am not affiliated with, nor do I receive any consideration from the various builders, contractors or service related industries at Village at the Park for this analysis. That means I'm getting myself into trouble without help from anyone else! I also caution the reader that although I have been a repeat visitor to Village at the Park, I have never listed a home in that development, and of course most of the sales have been handled by the builders in this relatively new development.

Also, there are several price categories where very few transactions have taken place. My conclusions must be taken with a grain of salt within those categories since each transaction becomes mathematically a major player. I am not considering home upgrades or if a listing might be a short sale. Obviously, these facts can have a significant effect on a home price as well. My remarks are not intended to reflect poorly on the abilities of the listing agents or their clients. That doesn't mean I won't poke fun at them. I know they'll get me back no matter what I say.

There are various categories or sale status terms used for homes listed in the MLS. These are my very abbreviated and marginally accurate definitions for those categories. Each home transaction is very different and sometimes you need a shoehorn to make a specific definition fit. Quotes are from the VCCAR definitions

In all market analysis the best comparible homes are those which have Sold. They are irrefutable evidence of where the market price was at the time the home sold.

Pending or Contingent status homes are of the next most important status since these homes have accepted offers and may soon close escrow and become sold status. Maybe.

Cancelled, and Expired properties I consider failed transactions.

An Expired listing is generally a listing that has timed out. The agent usually will have an agreement - typically up to 6 months to represent the sale of the home. Whatever the agreement states, if the home does not sell in the specified time it usually becomes Expired unless a new listing agreement is made with the seller and the property is re-listed.

A Cancelled listing is a listing which did not make it past it's listed time frame. There are many reasons this can happen. Poor market pricing - typically a home priced too high for the neighborhood, Seller dissatisfaction with their agent, the failure to meet a condition of sale. "Contract has been cancelled. Check to see if re-listed before calling owner."

A Conditional Cancellation "is the same as a withdrawal from the MLS. Contract is still in effect."

A Release from Showing Status According to VCCAR, "this is a temporary withdrawal (clients out of town for a week or two, repairs being made, etc.) The contract is still in effect."

The Active status is a current listing or sale price of a home on the market. It varies widely depending on if the home is a short sale or foreclosure (usually priced below market for a quick sale), or has been market priced with or without regard to neighborhood short sales. In many cases, it represents the sellers desired sales price without regard to the local market (usually priced too high). Active status homes do reflect market conditions to the extent that you can see how long a home has been offered at a particular price. Presumably the longer a home has been for sale at a specific price, the less accurately it has been priced. As a very rough rule of thumb, you don't want to see a large gap between the Active price and the Sold price of a similar home sold within a month or two of the Active listing. Why would a buyer pay more for the same home?

*

398 to 500K Homes There are only 5 homes in this price bracket.

Sold - Only 1 home in this price bracket has sold in the last year. It sold in March with 1072 sq ft for 407K. It was on the market for 91 days and was reduced by about $1,000 during that time. Obviously, it was well priced.

Contingent - One 1,553 sq ft home went contingent on 1 Oct for 499,990 after only 12 days on the market. Again this home appears to have been well-priced and the additional 500 sq ft fetched an additional $53,000 or 10k per extra 100 sq ft.

Active - Only 1 home listed. 1135 sq ft for 429K and on the market for 35 days to date. This is 22k above the sale price for the home sold in March that was roughly the same size.

Expired - Two listings expired in of October 2006. A year ago a 1,093 sq ft listing was removed after only 92 days on the market and priced at 421,990. The other listing was removed at 398,990.

Summary: Three of these homes had about 1100 sq ft and were priced from 407 to 429K. The one contingent property was 500 sq ft larger and really belongs in the next price category. The agent was smart and dropped the price into a lower category for a quick 12 day sale. He/she also sold for more - at about 322 $/sq ft compared to the 317 and 319 $/sq ft that two homes are still currently being listed for after 40 days on the market in the 500 to 600k price range. He sold more quickly and at a higher price for his client by dropping his listing into the top of a lower price category. He caught the market as it was dropping!

501 to 600K Homes There are 7 homes in this price bracket.

Sold - Three homes sold. A 1610 sq ft home sold 24 October 2006 for $599,990 in only 15days. A similar sized home with 1553 sq ft sold in March 2007 for $517,000 in 91 days. This is a market drop of 83K in home prices in just 5 months = over 16k per month from October to March. The third home was a bit larger at 1814 sq ft and sold at the end of August for 600K. This home was originally listed for 745K and took 207 days to come down to the 600k sale price! Obviously, homes will not sell until they find the market price.

Active - Two homes offered. One 1752 sq ft home on the market for 39 days and priced at 559K. The second 1859 sq ft home offered for 44 days at 589K. The second home is significant because it is being offered at 316 $/sq ft versus the 330 $/sq ft of the latest sold property in this price category and is nearly the same size. This might indicate the market is still soft for these homes. That is an 11k lower price in 1 ½ months.

Expired - Two homes expired this year, one 1553 sq ft home in October 2006 after 92 days at 530,990 and one 1920 sq ft home in July 2007 after 120 days at 599K. Actually this second home was originally listed for 650k. If it had been priced at the lower amount from the start it would have had an excellent chance for selling. It was slightly larger and lower priced than the home that did sell at the end of August for 600K.

Summary: These homes ranged from 1553 sq ft to 1920 sq ft and are now listing around 316 to 319 $/sq ft, down from 330 $/sq ft in August. So far we have seen 3 examples of how crucial the effect of proper pricing is on a successful home sale in just these first two price categories.

601 to 700K Homes There are 14 homes in this price bracket.

Sold - Nine homes sold. These ranged in size from 1610 sq ft to 2126 sq ft and sold from 615K to 695K. The average price per sq ft is a bit more at 336 $/sq ft and average days on the market (DOM) was 46 days for this group. All of these 9 home sales were in October and November of 2006! No other homes have resold in this price range since the beginning of 2007.

Pending - One 1920 sq ft home pending at 629,500 and reduced from 639K after 149 days. It is currently in escrow at about 328 $/sq ft which averages 9 or 10 $/sq ft higher than the lower priced homes.

Cancelled - Three homes cancelled in July and August this summer. Two identical 1920 sq ft homes listed for 619K and 636.5K and one 1814 sq ft home listed in the stratosphere for 699,900! (Remember the other 1814 sq ft home that sold in the lower price range for 600K?)

Expired - One 2,022 sq ft home was originally listed at 749K and after 183 days on the market it had been reduced to 699K and expired this October. Even at 699K it was priced at almost 346 $/sq ft. or roughly 18 $/sq ft above the current pending property at 328 $/sq ft.

Summary: These homes are really only represented by one current Pending home. If one sale can be depended upon to represent this group, then sale prices should average about 328 $/sq ft in today's market for homes in the 1600 to 2100 sq ft size range. That is 8 $/sq ft less than what these homes sold for as a group last October and November.

701 to 800K Homes There are 16 homes in this price bracket.

Sold - Four homes ranging from 2004 sq ft to 2806 sq ft have sold this year in Jan, May, June and again in August. That's not exactly a red hot market, but it is better than the other categories for this calendar year. Remember the one pending 1920 sq ft home in the previous lower price category? It is in escrow for 328 $/sq ft. What do you think these homes average per sq ft? The answer is 327.81 $/sq ft!

In all fairness, this is a remarkable coincidence since the home that sold in Jan was at 300 $/sq ft while the home that sold in August went for 361 $/sq ft. There may be some firming of the market in this price range, but let's see what the Active properties are doing.

Active - Two homes are listed here and provide a real contrast to each other. One home is 2181 sq ft which is about 200 sq ft larger than the latest home sale in this category. It has been priced at 729.9K or just slightly higher than the last home sold at 723.5K. The second home listed is much larger at 2806 sq ft and is listed for 769K. This is just 5K above the same size home which sold in June for 764K. Both of these homes are probably priced just above what the seller actually thinks he will be able to sell for. Since the result would be no actual increase in price from earlier this year, I would hazard the statement that in this price range the market is rather flat with a favorable spike in a recent sales price. That still beats taking a sizeable drop in price.

Cancelled - Three homes in this category. Two homes that were both roughly 2800 sq ft in size were listed at 274 and 287 $/sq ft which is above the 272 $/sq ft of the 2800 sq ft home that sold in June. The other 2181 sq ft home was priced originally at 754.9K and on the market for 128 days. It was eventually reduced to 729.9K and canceled in June. It might have sold if it had been priced there to start with, as it compares favorably with the home that sold in August.

Conditional Cancel - This home is still under contract but has been withdrawn from the market. There was another home that listed in Jan '07 that was the exact same size and it sold for 795K. It originally listed at 866.5K but within 55 days the agent reduced the home price 71K and caught the market. Not so with our conditional cancel. This home listed originally for 879K some 3 months later. The higher price for this home was presumably because the seller didn't realize the market was headed down not up! Instead of reducing the home price right away, the home sat on the market for 201 days, gradually reducing in price until conditionally cancelled this month at 759K. Homes are currently listed in this category at 304 $/sq ft while this home was Conditionally Cancelled at about 287 $/ sq ft. That is 17 $/sq ft below the already reduced market price our two active listings represent.

Expired - Five homes in this category. Three of these properties would probably sell if they hung in there for more than 3 months at their final list price. The other two were both listed too high for too long. Sorry if this is a bit abbreviated, but I'd just be repeating my previous discussions for this home status.

Released from Showing - One 2921 sq ft home in this category and priced at 799K it is at 273 $/sq ft which is at the very edge of what these homes sold for in June. In my opinion, a slight price reduction and the home would probably sell.

Summary: This group had the strongest price per square foot and the most sales this calendar year. The smaller 2000 to 2200 sq ft homes are stable around 330 $/sq ft while the larger 2800 sq ft homes are going for a bit above 270 $/sq ft. Outside of those ranges they may have trouble.

801 to 900K Homes There are 9 homes in the category.

Sold - One 2760 sq ft home sold in 15 days for 829K or 300 $/sq ft. Great Price!

Contingent - Two 3151 sq ft homes which sold for 859K in 53 days and for 879K in 21 days. That is 273 and 279 $/sq ft respectively. Again, very good prices and both sold this month.

Actually, if you look into property history a bit you would see that the home that presumably sold in 53 days was actually previously listed for 133 days at a starting price of 989K! That's a 130K reduction to get it to market and sold. That's amazing work by the agent in my book.

Cancelled - There were four properties listed but two were shifted into sold and contingent after reducing their prices. So they were not permanently cancelled. The other two homes were both roughly 2800 sq ft each and within 3 months reduced to a price within 10K of the 2800 sq ft home that did sell. They might have hung in there. 3 months isn't always enough time to compete, especially if you need part of that 3 months to find the market price.

Expired - Four homes in this category. Originally priced from 859K for a 2800 sq ft home to 969K for a 3417 sq ft home. In my opinion, all of these homes were priced above market for over 120 days each. One home was finally reduced to market but they gave up. The other homes needed a reality check a lot sooner.

Summary: Homes in this category are pending at 860 to 880K for roughly 3200 sq ft. These are especially interesting numbers because these are October 2007 escrows. The slightly smaller 2800 sq ft home sold for 829K in 15 days!

901 to 1M Homes There are 11 homes in this category.

Sold - One 3879 sq ft home in this category which sold for 950K or 245 $/sq ft. What a great price. And it sold in 1 day! Last January. Ten months ago.

Active - One 4143 sq ft home listed for 915,990. That's 221 $/sq ft! Just on the market for 7 days now. Run don't walk. This is a seriously interesting value.

One 3151 sq ft home is listed for 920K. They have already been on the market for 138 days! That compares with the two 3151 contingent properties in the 801 to 900K category that just went into escrow this month for 859K and 879K.

Cancelled - Three of these homes. One 4147 sq ft home started life at 1M and was finally reduced after 154 days to market price at 915K and they gave up. The other two homes started high and still haden't found market price when they gave up.

Conditional Cancel - There is one 3151 sq ft home which started at 949K 207 days ago and is now at 909K. Sound familiar? You can tell me what it needs to be at now.

Expired - Four homes listed from 913K to 969K. Three of which were 3500 sq ft and one which was 3129 sq ft. Only the 969K home reduced to close to market price. None of the other homes reduced their prices (which were above market). There was only one way these homes were going to sell and they didn't reduce their prices.

Summary: Homes in this price range are not extremely difficult to price. However, the owners may have a hard time accepting their real market value. Often, they are investors and cannot afford to accept a lower price. We saw repeatedly that 3151 sq ft homes are selling for 860k to 880K. The 3900 sq ft home sold at 950K in January which is probably above market now. The 4143 sq ft model is listed at about 916k and is probably a very good price. We just don't have any real comps to confirm it.

1.01M to 1.1M Homes There are 3 homes in this category.

Sold - One 3879 sq ft home sold for 1,011,000 in January 2007. Compare that to the 3879 sq ft home that sold for 950K next door and on the same exact date. $61k difference in price! Somebody was motivated, and yes the lot size was the same.

Active - One 3417 sq ft home has been listed now for 80 days at 1,049,000. This story will probably not have a happy ending.

Expired - One 4115 sq ft home which made it from 1.044M down to 1.017K in 85 days. Close but no cigar.

Summary: The market for many of these homes was much stronger this last January. These homes could sell but I suspect they may be priced according to seller needs rather than according to market price. The last 3900 sq ft home in this price range sold in January for 1.011M and I feel prices may have weakened a bit over the last 10 month period. There is a 4143 sq ft home currently being offered at 916K. I would wonder about anything listing for over 950K.

Conclusion: Among the more moderately priced homes there appears to be a gradual resolution of market pricing. However, it appears that as home prices go up, the willingness of owners to part with them at market price diminishes. I'm sure that the new home builders are offering large home discounts on their brand new homes in order to sell them. This can obviously have an adverse effect on those folks who bought at the top of the market two years ago as an investment. With one or two year selling restrictions just now releasing owners to sell, they probably are finding it difficult to recoup their investments. They may be competing with their own home builders. Many of these investors are going to be unwilling to take a loss and sell at a lower price if they can make their payments for a few more years until their equity builds again. That may be part of the reason for the large number of cancelled and expired listings in the more expensive homes. That is really too bad, because these are beautiful homes that deserve to be filled with appreciative families.

For more commentaries and market surveys you are invited to visit my website blog at http://www.markthorngren.com/.

Warmest Regards,

Mark Thorngren

I did a Comparative Market Analysis for a friend (and client) of mine in the area just Southwest across the 101 from the Oaks Mall. This is about a quarter mile square area and featrures larger sized "move-up" homes built in the 1980's. The CMA was done on the 12^th of October and included 6 active listings and 9 sold listing covering the previous 12 months of activity.

The Active listings were priced between $594,900 and $799,950. The average days on the market (DOM) is 104 days with prices reduced from an average $756K to and average $716K over that time frame. Keep in mind that these prices reflect back just a bit over 6 months.

The Sold listings went for between $550K and $875K. The average days on the market was 58 days and the average sale price was roughly $728K. The sold listings covered 12 months or an additional 6 months before the Active listings in this CMA. These are averaged numbers.

Sold listings give us the best info and here are four homes of particular interest since they are somewhat close in size and square footage.

In November ‘06 a 5/3 2,600 sq ft home sold in 35 days after reducing from 819K to 816K.

In March a 4/3 2400 sq ft home sold in 151 days after reducing from 764K to 745K.

In June a 4/2.5 3000 sq ft home sold in 116 days after reducing from 965K to 828K.

In July a 4/2.5 2500 sq ft home sold in 77 days after reducing from 815K to 801K.

Compare these homes with 3 homes similar to them in the Active category.

In April a 4/2.5 2,800 sq ft home listed for a 189 DOM and reduced so far from 829.9K to 769.9K

In Sept a 4/3 2,800 sq ft home listed for 36 DOM and has not been reduced so far from 799K

In Sept a 4/2.5 2,800 sq ft home listed for 25 DOM and has not been reduced from 799.9K

Summary: These 3 Active homes are of fairly equal size and are being listed between 770K and 800K.

Referencing the trends from Sold listings, my personal guess is that they will sell between 760 and 780K. If that is true, those homes will represent about a 40K to 50K price drop from homes selling in the same area six months ago. That is about 8K per month drop in prices overall. Not too far out of line with what we have been seeing in other neighborhoods in East Ventura County. Contrast that with some Oxnard neighborhoods where we have seen homes listed a year ago in the 770's and 780's now listed for 600K and less!

You are welcome to study other market information and blogs on my website at http://www.markthorngren.com

It is important that you know that I do have time for you, your family, friends and people you like who could use my help right now.

Mark Thorngren

I have done a little research on new home developments in Ventura County today for you. I have had some mixed success for your clients. All of these new developments are within 10 or 20 miles of the ocean. I have not included new developments in Moorpark, Simi Valley or Fillmore. Those developments are in a bit warmer climes further from the ocean. These developments are normally made up of neighborhoods with differing home types and styles. Most have HOA's, a few have Mello Roos. There is a county tax of 1.25% of the sale price of each home in Ventura County. Some developments are large enough to have schools and even firehouses of their own. It is important for home buyers to understand, if a tract in a new home development sells out, they will eventually become available again when the original owner sells. Often the original seller is an investor trying to "flip" a property for a quick profit. That is difficult to do in today's slower market, which means the investor is often stuck with a second mortgage longer than he planned; and that is good for buyers who can sometimes take advantage of the seller's situation. These sales are normally handled through the local realtors and real estate consultants. Bottom line- there really isn't such a thing as a sold out tract if you are patient.

Camarillo - Village in the Park

The largest new home development is Village in the Park. This is an upscale planned community with 9 separate tracts and home styles, which sits just South of the 101 and square in the proposed FEMA flood plain between Camarillo and the ocean. This is a community which has it's own school, YMCA, a Central Recreation Center, East Cove Recreation Area and a West Garden Recreation Area. As of this moment only Brookshire (485K to 510K) and Kensington Court (starts in low 900K's ) are still "available". HOA's are based on square footage and run from $250 to $300 a month in Brookshire. The HOA's at Village in the Park include water, sewer, trash, hazard insurance and maintenance of the common areas. That makes it a reasonable value for our area. There are incentives gallore and these include home upgrades, and a 10K closing cost give back for using their lender. Excellent maps, floorplans and general information can be found on their website. Http://www.villageatthepark.com/index.html.

The tract names are:

•· Kensington Court

•· Camden

•· Brookshire

•· Cedar Creek

•· Hampton Roads

•· Wickford

•· Easton Crossing

•· Addison Lane

•· Madison

Oxnard - Riverpark - 1,800 homes along the Santa Clara River

The largest new home development currently being built in Oxnard is Riverpark There are 15 different home plans by my count, located just North off the 101, along the banks of the Santa Clara River. HOA's vary by neighborhood, by square footage and by builder. Standard Pacific Homes is currently marketing the Celadon tract. Their HOAs can run from less than $100.00 up to nearly $300.00. There is also a 30 year Mello Roos which is about 1.1% but it is combined with a city special tax assessment. Agents in the development have told me to just multiply the Sale Price x 1.9 to get a rough idea of the combined total. Add the HOA and you will come close to your monthly fees. The HOA in the homes built by Standard Pacific Homes includes outside maintenance, landscaping and lender insurance - typically fire. Add these to your mortgage payment for your monthly housing costs. This does not include all utilities or your personal property insurance. Even with all the added costs, the homes tend to be very competitively priced with more floor space than I would expect. In one case that I know of, a home was offered for 70K below market with a special 6% give back at close of escrow. It was the last home in the tract and had fallen out of escrow previously. This was a nicely upgraded home in a nice location. Good things can happen. Call them to find out what is currently available or I can check for you if you prefer.

Shea Homes is offering the Market Street Tract of luxury townhomes. Plans 1 - 4 range in price from 486K for 2,362 sq ft to 545K for 2,631 sq ft. HOAs are up to $292 for Phase 2. This covers the Riverpark master association dues ($32) with the balance for Fire and Casualty Insurance of the building and exterior maintenance of the building. There is a property tax rate of 1.15% of the sale price, plus a Mello Roos Tax Assessment of $4,587 per year.

Several other tracts are still under construction. They have a new school opening there this Fall. There are very nice websitesq at http://www.riverparklife.com/ or http://www.standardpacifichomes.com/ or http://www.sheahomes.com/.

The tract names are:

•· Celadon

•· Destination

•· Luminaria

•· Market Street

•· Promenade

•· The Avenue

•· Tradewinds

•· Trellis

•· Westerly

•· Collage

•· Meridian

•· Morning View

•· Veranda

•· Waypoint

•· Daybreak

Oxnard Seaside - Westport at Mandalay Bay, Seabridge at Mandalay, Harbor Island

Take a bunch of earth movers and dig a residential marina just North of, and eventually joined with, the previous Oxnard Harbor. Viola! You have Westport at Mandalay Bay, Seabridge at Mandalay, and Harbor Island. If you have a nice sailboat, motor cruiser or yacht - now you can live next to it. This is about as good as it gets for new tract homes. Many priced below 1M. The great location is reflected in the home prices.

Westport at Mandalay Bay - Very tony area, all newer homes - salted with a Vons and some smaller shops and restaurants. Some ocean view properties. Many of these homes are sold out, but again, homes can be had through local realtors as they become available the second time around. http://johnlainghomes.com/whitesails.

The tract names are:

•· Lighthouse

•· Villas

•· Sea Cove

•· Sea View

•· Sea Side

•· Whitesails

Seabridge at Mandalay - Extends just East of Westport at Mandalay Bay and includes 2 man-made islands. A bit more reasonably priced (or rather less prohibitively priced) Seabridge at Mandalay includes 6 individual tracts. Much of this development is still under construction. High rise condos are part of this offering and a Marina Village that contains 3 of the tracts guarding the central bridge.to Coral Island, and flanking the Southern Bridge to Shell Island. This will be a very impressive area when complete with tiny parks and plenty of public sidewalks around the marina. All inner marina properties, but the high rises should have a great view of the beach.

The tract names are:

•· Port 121

•· Port Oceano

•· Port Marluna

•· Port Meridian

•· Port Province

•· Port Haviland

Harbour Island - The island is actually a westward extension of Shell Island and pushes closer to the ocean. To be honest, I don't know if there are any homes available there yet.

East Ventura - Chapel Lane - Just North of the Santa Clara River and a little East of Riverpark is a new and much smaller home development named Chapel Lane Lofts. Named after an historic church that was transplanted from downtown Ventura and which recently burned to the ground under mysterious circumstances, Chapel Lane Lofts should hopefully fare better. These are brand new 3 story townhomes with no Mellos Roos. The townhomes were built in "Loft A thru E" and in several phases as well. Each of the homes has a two car garage and an abundance of room. From 1,177 sq ft for 399k up to 2,026 sq ft for a bit over 500K these homes are a very good value. There are mountain views from most homes, although a mobile home park abutts the back of the property. There is talk by the listing agents of a new shopping center and coffee shop to be built a few blocks away. This is a semi- rural area, which means there is still a little crop land nearby. There is no Mello Roos. There is a 1% County Sales Tax instead of the normal 1.25%. All of the units have a $250 HOA which they promise will be reduced to $200 when all units have been built and occupied. The HOA includes water, trash, landscaping. There is a $6,000 dollar give back for closing expenses or to pay down interest rates on loans or for home upgrades. If a buyer uses their lender they receive an additional $2,000. There is no website for this development, but I can email or fax you information.

Again, these are just a few of the new home developments recently completed or nearing completion in the coastal parts of Ventura County. They are fairly representative of what can be found in new homes. All of the prices and fees I've quoted you come from the sales counselors at the developments. All of their literature bears the remark that "all information, prices and floor plans are subject to change without notice."

All of these developments have experienced some slow sales in the last year but seem to be doing quite well now. As a result of the slower market, the developments I've named do cooperate with brokers throughout the area. This can be a significant advantage for new home buyers. Instead of the old "take it or leave it" experience prevalent a few years back, sellers are working much harder to entice buyers. Buyers who shop more ( ie - look at more than one development ) will often find a better match for their needs. Brokers from outside the developments often have a more comprehensive idea of what is available in the county since they are not constrained to any one home development. Outside lenders also love to compete with the developers own lenders and often are successful in lowering the mortgage of a potential buyer.

To be fair, my experience with the sales counselors in these developments has been quite positive. They know their own homes very well and have many incentives to entice buyers to buy their homes. My advantage is I know a little bit about most of the developments, enough to get you to the best developments for your needs, without any restrictions to what I can show you. I can also help you compare a wide range of mortgage programs without fear of loosing my job.

Warmest Regards,

Mark Thorngren

The market in Ventura County is showing signs of waking up again. In the last 3 weeks I have had numerous clients begin to search for homes. This is a very different feel from a month or two ago. I'm not sure I can put my finger on any one thing, but I think some of the change is coming from more strong buyers, and also from a developing change in the way banks are doing business. Buyers are adjusting to the changing mortgage market and see the foreclosures and short sales as a wonderful opportunity for themselves. Prices and interest rates are still falling. Banks are carrying an ever expanding inventory of homes they need to get rid of.

Little help is coming from the new government programs aimed at helping out unfortunate home owners who are behind in their payments. These programs are helping only a very small group of people. The Bush Plan is expected to bail out many less borrowers than the 240,000 subprime loans claimed - very ineffective. Meanwhile, in Stockton California - roughly one out of three homes is in foreclosure. However, this is an extreme example. In most towns, REOs are still a small percentage of the total real estate market.

Are any Federal Programs working? Maybe the new mortgage limits for FHA insured loans will help a bit at 417K, but there are not going to be a great many folks affected in this market. We need something more like a 650K loan limit to really jump start this county's market again. Still, the market offers many underpriced homes for people who are ready to buy right now.

A few days ago in Ventura County, there were 4970 active listings, only 351 of which were REOs. (Bank owned sales). Of 468 properties in a pending status, only 72 were REOs. That means less than 10% of our market is being offered by the banks. Are there a lot of REO's? Yes! Are they driving the market? It depends.

In neighborhoods with many foreclosed homes and short sales, the normal market has been gutted. Some of the newer Oxnard neighborhoods have seen 25% to 30% reductions in home prices over the last year. Some homes listed close to 800K a year ago are now below 600K. However, in neighborhoods where there are few foreclosures, the market prices are much less affected and tend to indicate about a 10% reduction over last years prices. Both of these conditions can exist in locations within miles of each other. That is one of the wonders of this market. Most neighborhoods fall somewhere in between.

I spoke yesterday with another Realtor in Thousand Oaks who had offered a 1462 sq ft home several months ago at 650K. It is a short sale (they owe more than the asking price). Within two months they dropped the home to 450K. The realtor told me they had to repost the price at 617K to slow down all the many offers that they received and had to forward to the foreclosing banks Asset Manager!

What I am intrigued by - is how the mortgage bankers are coping with the deluge of short sales and foreclosures. Even though the percentage of foreclosures is small, the bank asset managers are literally drowning in foreclosed properties. Nationwide, it is predicted there will be 2 million subprime foreclosures by 2009. In September of 2007 there were 72,571 California NOD's (notice of Default) filed. Ventura County NOD's are up 138% in 2007 with 1,377 filed as of October.

What does all this really mean?

I think we are beginning to see banks more willing to consider low offers for homes they own or are about to own. They must move these homes more expeditiously or face even more extended business losses. The trick for realtors will be to identify those banks which are most buyer friendly. Those banks which can adjust to the new times and are willing to do what it takes, will accept lower offers from the lucky home buyers that are fully capable of meeting the new lending requirements.

I have clients now in a transaction for a townhome which is in a neighborhood market of around 550K. The listed price for one of these homes is now less than 400K on a short sale. The bank is considering our offer, even though that is a huge drop from the mortgage owed on that home. Six months ago no bank would have looked at such an offer.

The willingness of some banks to consider offers for less than the mortgage owed (on REO and Short Sale properties) is the biggest change I see in our market today.

I believe that there is a developing realization among banks, of the hole they have dug for themselves. Their outmoded REO policies are preventing them from quickly selling these homes and it is hurting the banks financially. We may be seeing the beginnings of a new banking paradign and willingness to accept a bit of a loss up front, rather than a protracted draining of bank coffers as these homes sit and sit and sit on the market. Bank auctions are also becoming more frequent as another indication of willingness to settle at a loss.

It will be fascinating to see how this new trend develops over the next few months as we enter the traditional home buying season.

Mark Thorngren
Movewest Realty, Inc.
http://www.markthorngren.com/