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Meryl Masters-Alexander

Durham & Orange County entering a shifting market

The Table below is data compiled from the Triangle MLS. The number listed is as of 3/15/06, 3/15/07 & 3/18/08. The number sold is from 1/1/06-2/28/06, 1/1/07-2/28/07 & 1/1/08-2/29/08.

Market Stats

From this table you can see that:

  • the percentage of Number of Homes Sold/Number of Homes Listed in Durham County in '06 is 24.4%
  • the percentage of Number of Homes Sold/Number of Homes Listed in Durham County in '07 is 27.0%
  • the percentage of Number of Homes Sold/Number of Homes Listed in Durham County in '08 is 18.4%
  • the percentage of Number of Homes Sold/Number of Homes Listed in Orange County in '06 is 31.9%
  • the percentage of Number of Homes Sold/Number of Homes Listed in Orange County in '07 is 26.9%
  • the percentage of Number of Homes Sold/Number of Homes Listed in Orange County in '08 is 16.0%

Although our area has been insulated from the effects of the national real estate trends for the past few years, it is evident from the data presented that our market is changing. In Durham County, the market is down by 60% from its peak in 2007. In Orange County, the market is down by 50% from its peak in 2006. We are seeing more homes on the market with less buyers buying. This means that we are in a shifting market. Typically this means that more homes will be competing for the same buyers and those buyers will be making choices for the homes priced most aggressively.

Chapel Hill Market Stats

Enclosed below are past and current statistics from the Chapel Hill Market this year.

Table of Chapel Hill Market Stats over time

As expected, the market is picking up. Then number of single family homes on the market in one month increased by 40 homes and the number of pendings increased by 6. The percentage of homes pending in January at 4.89% of the actives and in February then number increased to 5.5%. This amount should continue to increase in March.

New Construction in Chapel Hill/Carrboro

There are several new subdivisons being built in Chapel Hill/Carrboro. Both Claremont and Winmore are being built on Homestead Road. Claremont will have 79 homes, a pool, clubhouse and playground. The pricing starts in the upper $500K. Winmore will have 86 townhomes and 98 single family homes, playing fields, playground, swimming pool and a mixed use village. The pricing will start at $400K for the townhomes. There will be several affordable townhomes built slated to start in the $250K. Triple Crown Estate is on Dairyland Road. Triple Crown Estates is a 15 multi-acre lot development prices starting from the $700K upwards of one million. The Orchard is off of Jones Ferry Road. It is an 18 multi-acre lot development pricing ranging from $900K and up. Chancellor's View is off of Mt Carmel Church Road on Zappata Lane. Chancellor's View is a community of 21 single family homes, approximately 0.5 acre lots. The homes are slated to be 4,000+ sq. ft. in size and pricing upwards of one million. Lake Hogan Farms will continue with a mix of 64 townhomes and single family homes. The pricing is still to be determined. Lloyd Harbor in Carrboro is a 17 home subdivision starting in the $700K. In all cases, the least expensive single family home is in $500K range. The majority of the single family homes being built in these subdivisons are $700K and up. Some of the subdivisions must provide affordable components or pay not to have them.

Transfer Tax being sought in Orange County

The Orange County Board of Commissioners is looking at ways to increase revenue. One way is to have a 0.4% transfer tax on all properties sold. The other way is to increase sales tax by 0.25%. They are seeking to put this on the May 6th Primary Ballot. This is not the way to increase revenue in a smart manner. Much of the area is a bedroom community with not much commerical development to support a tax base. Increaseing commericial opportunity in the area will help over a long term period. Orange County also has an impact fee that builders have to pay to start new home in the county, then that house generates property taxes, and when it is sold the seller has to pay excise tax on the property. Adding another tax just seems too much. The seller is taxed coming and going. We need smarter long term planning for growth in the area.

What is Happening to Our Triangle Real Estate Market?

Most of us by now have continued to see or hear the reports about the decline in the Real Estate Market. What everyone must remember is that real estate is very local. Different areas are affected differently. In general, our market has noticed a trickle down effect. Many deals for new and resale homes have not closed because people from other areas have not been able to sell their homes in order to move to the Triangle. In addition, those home buyers with questionable credit have not been able to buy because of tightening requirements from the lenders. The decrease in total # of sales has not, at this point, affected the average pricing of the homes. Prices have continued to rise but it has slowed down and the "days on market" has increased, meaning it takes longer to sell your home. In an article in today's Herald Sun, "Housing Market Cools Down", by Monica Chen, it highlights these points. It also hints that it might we may be at the beginning of a shifting market in the Triangle. Only time will tell.