Matt Heisler Real Estate & Investor Services

No offense to Brad Penny, but you're on the market. Sox have a total log jam at SP. Either Smoltz or Penny will need to get dealt, (or Matsuaka). I can't believe it'll be Matsuaka, Lester, or Beckett, and obviously Wakefield is out of the equation. Sox need a catcher - and they are hard to get, so any young arm in the farm system is suspect. Hard to know for sure, but Kottaras hasn't been able to set the world afire, and a .600 OPS is basically backup city. I think he does a nice job behind the dish, and hope that it's just the limited playing time, plus his first major league year, but still..... Regardless, I think he should get more starts so that we have an evaluation to make. That would probably happen if Papi were hitting.

Still, they have options, and will have suiters should they wish to deal.

Games not going well tonight. Typical Matsuaka outing!!

Fingers crossed!

Well, what've we learned about the Yankees and Sox so far is that the Yankee bullpen is pitching terrible. Yes, some of their star relievers are hurt, but that happens to everyone in a season, and you need to be more than two deep to survive. It's going to cost them games for sure, and I don't know how they are going to fix that.

The Sox are starting to look like a M*A*S*H unit. No Youk, No Ellsbury, No Lowrie, No Baldelli, Lugo isn't healthy and Lowell, god bless the man, is playing on one leg but is coming up big on both sides of the bag. Has anyone looked at Lowell running? No way he is pain "free". Not buying it. Hopefully, his leg will continue to heal.

Anyway: My thoughts on the recent HBPs: I have to say, when the Sox were an 'inferior' team, we plunked a lot of their boys. More than they did. One of the problems with being on top I guess. I don't like it - and I don't like ex-Yankee Bob Watson being the referree for these events - but if you can't win, might as well plunk 'em. For the record, I didn't like it when the Red Sox were the plunkers either - at least, not so one sided (Hello, Pedro.). I think it's still part of the game - a good part - for pitchers to protect the inside part of the plate, and keep hitters on their toes. Granted, most of 'em are unaffected. Or seem to be. But you still have to protect your turf.

Nick Green is still slugging away, and I really like the way he'll just chop a ball opposite field when he needs a hit. He's not greedy up there, just effective. Good for him.

April pitching is always a bear - just ask the Yankees and Tampa Bay - but the Sox don't look to good either. The shellacking last night didn't help. But we'll see how they do going forward. As it heats up, and the curves bite a little more, it should be interesting! Plus, the Sox have the capability to find the "hot hand" - and it might not be Penny. Dice-K, Buckholz, even Masterson are clearly in the mix for a solid job and/or season, if they can keep hitters off balance. I'm really looking forward to the return of Buckholz, I just think with his crazy curve he's really going to have a great career.

We'll see!

I've been writing about good real estate metrics for the last couple of posts, and we continue on our journey with my developing customized metric. Let's see how the first pass turns out. Let's review the goal: 1) Get an acurate picture of prices as they have changed 2) Weed out fluctuations in the median 3) Calculate it quickly 4) Eliminate volatility. So, here's the first pass (I'll be expanding on this in later editions.). This looks at quarterly calculations- as opposed to monthly - to smooth out variations. Having said that, Southborough is a very small town, and with only 65 transaction all last year, some variability is to be expected. And that's what we see.

	Southborough (SF)	Westborough (SF)	Northborough (SF)
10/1/2008-12/31/2008	-19% (limited transaction volume)	-3.00%
7/1/2008-9/30/2008	7.85%	5
4/1/2008-6/30/2008	-10.30%	-6.00%
1/1/2008-4/30/2008

So, what else do we notice? Well, how about that prices actually went up a little in the fall of last year? Kind of a surprise. And it'll be really interesting once I add some more towns, see if the trends hold, and soon I'll be tacking on the first quarter of this year to look at those too. How do I calculate it? Well, if you ask me, I might tell you - but for now it's my little secret.

Well so far so good on Nick Green. He's been an adequate replacement with enough bat so far - but he'll be hard pressed to keep the pace, I suspect. The sox still have a bunch of questions, but for the most part the team looks fit to compete, as they've really been handing it to teams. Yankess in this weekend, interesting match up.

With all the home runs hit in Yankee stadium, you have to wonder if it's going to get tough for the Yanks to play away from home. Will some of them start TRYING to belt it out all over the place, leading to more K's, or will they be able to balance it? I don't think the Rockies benefit by scoring so much at home, and then hitting the road - I think the hitters struggle more; I mean, psychologically it can't be much fun playing at sea level after doing your best 'Thunder of the Gods' routine for 6 days on a home stand. I think the Yanks could find themselves in a similar type of issue.

Issues for the Sox to watch:

1) Will Ellsbury be the sparkplug for the sox? He's hitting better, but I think he's the key.

2) Lugo or Lowrie? Can anyone play short and be anything but a drag on the offense?

3) Varitek looks great: BUT (sorry Tek, there's a But) you have to expect at this point in his career that he'll look rough after the break. He can't be the automatic out he was last year in the playoffs.

4) Kotteras: Catcher of the future? I'm not unimpressed, but we haven't seen much yet.

5) Enjoy the bullpen. I bet they are the best in MLB.

6) Can Penny stay in the rotation? Penny, no one's pulling for you more than me, but you can't win with just a fastball in Fenway. Especially if you can't locate it.

7) Will Masterson be traded for a big bat: I'm saying yes.

8) Will Matsuaka return and be effective? And who even knows what's really wrong with the cat?

Lots to watch!