Today in the Mesquite Nevada real estate foreclosure and short sale market, one in every eight active residential listings is either a foreclosure or a short sale. There are 387 active residential listings and 52 are listed as short sale or bank owned foreclosure.
On the pending side we are seeing a trend developing in Mesquite Nevada foreclosures, out of the 31 currently in pending or "under contract" status, 10 are shown as bank owned foreclosure or short sales, one out of three.
Month to date 8 out of 19 pending residential units in the Mesquite Nevada MLS are listed as short sale or bank owned foreclosure, nearly half.
Mesquite Nevada is primarily a retirement golf community. There are seven golf courses and number eight is under construction, a number of casinos, no state income taxes, and excellent weather. Mesquite Nevada is located 90 miles northeast of Las Vegas, right on the Arizona state line. The Arizona strip as it is called is the north rim of the Grand Canyon.
The proximity to Vegas and all the factors that make Mesquite Nevada so appealing to the retiring baby boomer generation, also lead to a great deal of speculative investing in Mesquite real estate.
192 of the 377 active residential listings today are listed as sitting vacant, that is over half!
Not candidates for the bail out money, those investor properties. Which leads me to believe that we will see more Mesquite Nevada bank owned foreclosures and short sale properties before we work our way through this mess.
This trend is creating a very unusual opportunity. You have high vacancy, high inventory, falling prices, great supply choices, in an area that is well positioned for extreme future demand because of the retiring boomer generation.
This very unusual combination that we have today in Mesquite Nevada real estate will not last forever.
It seems everyday someone asks me are we at the bottom?
Since I do own a crystal ball, I offer this; we will not know where the bottom was until we are past it and prices begin to rise. If you find a property today that meets your needs and is within your budget, waiting is a risk.
At some point in the not too distant future, I believe that risk will out weigh the potential benefits. Some of these sale prices today are near the bottom.
The upside potential future for Mesquite Nevada real estate is real, based on the projected retirees and what they want. Mesquite Nevada is well positioned for the future demand and growth.
We will turn a corner and for many they will have waited too long and missed this opportunity.
Chris W. Miller
ERA Brokers Consolidated
Mesquite NV 89027
702- 346-7200
435-862-5951
For those who like to point to the Las Vegas market with "We hear sales are up", the median resale single family home in Las Vegas sold for $162,999 or $96 per foot in December, according to Home Builders Research, Inc.
This number makes the 15 resale homes closed during the entire fourth quarter in Mesquite look pretty good at an average price of $248,027 or $143 per square foot. Unfortunately, this price is over 25 time's fair market rent and over five times Mesquite median annual income, not good signs.
Realistically, the Vegas number is most likely a glimpse into the 2009 Mesquite Market numbers. The storm of foreclosures is on Mesquite's horizon and moving in fast.
Mesquite MLS shows 25 new homes closed during this past quarter with an average price of $293,151 or $158 per square foot.
Sun City Mesquite had only 10 closings reported through the Mesquite MLS for the entire fourth quarter, and without adjusting for incentives the price averaged $145 per square foot or $240,827.
We closed 14 town home units averaging $129 per square foot and none above $300,000.
With nearly 100 active condo units for sale, only 5 sold and closed in the last 90 days of 2008.
The term "sticky prices" is clearly in play, but the buyers are not buying it. In other words sellers have yet to really drop prices and buyers are waiting.
No commercial sites or commercial buildings closed during the fourth quarter 2008. By my estimate there may be as much as 300,000 square feet of vacant commercial/industrial space, yet 19 new commercial building permits were taken out during 2008. Many will require new permanent financing this year and it will be a real challenge for some given the current credit markets and vacancy rates.
The residential vacant land super pad or subdivision market has gone from bank foreclosures to FDIC owned through bank failure and seizure in some cases. Based on 378 new home building permits issued for the year of 2008, including Sun City there is over a 20 year supply of building lots. These values in some cases look like they may have fallen as much as 80% from 2005 prices.
All total including every residential category we closed 311 units during 2008 compared to 706 during 2005, that is 56% less sales. At the same time inventory of listed property for sale reached an all time high with over 400.
Another telling sign in the market is the failed listings during 2008, they reached 764. They went out of active inventory as expired, canceled, or withdrawn. The problem is that they are still out there and many are vacant or due to negative cash flow, must be sold.
2009 should be a year of opportunity and challenge.
Please remember if you are planning a visit and would like to discuss the Mesquite Market call ahead to let me know you are coming so we can schedule a few minutes. 702-346-7200
Chris W. Miller
ERA Brokers Consolidated
Mesquite NV 89027
702- 346-7200
435-862-5951
The foundation set in place in the Mesquite Nevada real estate market is clear and solid for the growth and future demand. The features of the Mesquite lifestyle including the quality of living, weather, golf, gaming, taxes, the great outdoors and access to it, all rank high on the list of "must haves" for the retiring baby boomer generation.
This segment of the population is looking hard right now for balance and perspective between future lifestyle and budget, debt, future income and health care. They are re-evaluating each part of their lives and budgets to determine what is really important and what is not. For many it is a real soul-searching process. The perception changes taking place will drive the product development of the future.
Mesquite's challenge will be to offer a product to the market that includes lifestyles at a price that is affordable. At the same time Mesquite, Nevada will likely continue to become more exclusive. The excess and particularly the waste of resources of the past will be less fashionable in the future, possibly even shunned.
The turn over in the real estate market taking place today is searching for that same balance. A new awareness seems to be developing among buyers, and lenders, that living beyond your means is not the road to happiness. This will continue to put greater emphasis on conservation and afford ability.
It also leads to a new demand for more efficient, self reliant, and self sustaining housing. Solar will play a huge part in new home design and construction one day soon, as will water conservation techniques. The lack of use of solar applications by the local builders of the past has put Mesquite behind. It is an opportunity today. Utilizing available renewable, free resources is not a fad, it is the future.
While the look of a neighborhood may take a little getting use to, proper home orientation to the sun, clear story windows and over hangs are simple, cheap, and effective. This has been completely ignored by the City of Mesquite and the builders of the past, that fact won't be lost on the consumers of tomorrow.
Why pay to keep a large tank full of water, hot 24 hours a day, when the sun will heat it for free? That same warm water can be circulated through pipes in the slab that will warm the floors during the winter.
Why pay to cool a home that has blazing hot sun streaming in during the summer months or heat a freezing house without the benefit of the warm winter sunshine?
Our sun shine opportunity can be maximized to create a whole new image, adding value, creating positive attention, demand and industry. Imagine how much money we could save if we turned off 8000 hot water heaters.
For those who scoff at the idea, consider this, mankind drilled the first oil well about 100 years ago and we are already talking about peak oil! You just happened to have lived your life while it was plentiful and seemed endless, which affected your perspective. What we have taken for granted will one day be viewed as wasteful and ignorant.
Builders and developers will follow the market. The common sense of the consumers and those new perceptions about what is really important to them will drive the market. Other markets are way ahead of Mesquite in green building technology, the slow down in the building market is an opportunity for Mesquite to change direction and catch up.
Mesquite's bright future surely includes lots of that wonderful sunshine!
Chris W. Miller
ERA Brokers Consolidated
Mesquite NV 89027
702- 346-7200
435-862-5951
Mesquite NV real estate experienced the speculative frenzy and price run ups at close to its worst. High rates of false appreciation and flippers cashing big checks even before new homes were complete, causing market havoc. That market is gone.
Today reality has set in and prices are falling, supply is at all time highs along with vacancy rates. Builders have walked away from whole neighborhoods and some look like gold rush ghost towns.
Land values, based on the supply of build-able residential and commercial sites available are headed south at unprecedented rates. The current supply will last for years.
Mesquite NV real estate fundamentals have not changed as far as desirability, weather, location, recreational amenities, taxes, etc. Retirees will continue to migrate to Mesquite, NV.
Mesquite NV real estate market does not hinge on the employment picture like many markets because most moving to Mesquite are not arriving looking for work. They arrive looking for the golf course and a nice place to go to dinner.
As 2009 unfolds Mesquite NV will continue the current trend to find balance between the extremes of the recent past and the budgets of tomorrows retirees. Land now owned by banks will come back into the market at a new more affordable cost basis.
Competition will continue to grow, Mesquite's new home builders will continue to build and in some areas at even more affordable prices.
Smart buyers will find even better values as the market moves forward. The aging baby boomers are going to retire, guaranteeing Mesquite Nevada's bright future.
For more information about the Mesquite Nevada real estate market or to receive a quarterly market report contact:
Chris W. Miller
ERA Brokers Consolidated
Mesquite NV 89027
702- 346-7200
435-862-5951
The twentieth century was one of the wettest going back several centuries.
University of Arizona scientist Connie Woodhouse said tree rings in the Colorado River basin indicate that the amount of moisture has fluctuated widely over hundreds of years, but has tended to be drier than was seen in the last 100 years.
California ranks No. 1 in population with 37 million people and No. 1 in agricultural output at $ 36.6 billion in 2007. At the present time there is not enough water to supply both those demands. California is facing the most significant water crisis in its history. June 2008, the governor declared a state wide drought.
A study released in February by the Scripps Institute of Oceanography in San Diego said there's a 50 percent chance that Lake Mead could run dry by 2021. Several models by different scientist have made predictions about the future flow of the Colorado River, all of which forecast less water. The current usage is simply not sustainable said Tim Barnett, one of the Scripps study's authors. "It's a question of when," he said. Lake Mead is the Las Vegas water supply.
If the drought continues until spring, California water officials there are planning to ration municipal water deliveries and dry up as much as 200,000 acres of farmland, according to AG Weekly 12/08/08. Without adequate water storage we are putting our food supply in jeopardy.
Land owners up and down the Virgin River Valley have either sold or leased nearly all the water rights in the Mesquite Valley to Southern Nevada Water Authority or Virgin Valley Water District. The fields will not be green next spring; there will be no hay to put up in Mesquite. The Virgin River feeds into Lake Mead.
Added value to Nevada land with water rights, and irrigated farm land in Nevada. Nevada state water laws date back 100 years and are very clear. Laws vary greatly from state to state, and the Colorado River serves seven states. The control, use and ownership of water rights will dictate future development.
Climate change is the wild card in all the predictions, the collision course between supply and demand is clear. Demand for food, and the future demographic population shifts are going to increase pressure. Increased storage capacity may be one of the answers for some areas. Limits on use and conservation will play increasingly bigger roles.
For information about land in Nevada currently available with water rights and irrigated farm land in Nevada. Call Chris W. Miller
Chris W. Miller
ERA Brokers Consolidated
Mesquite NV 89027
702- 346-7200
435-862-5951
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Mesquite Nevada Real Estate, 32+ Years Real Estate, Experience you can trust. Nevada farm and ranch land with water rights, irrigated land, cattle ranches, agricultural land. Market reports available
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