Andre Shambley

As the elections come to a close, we will find out soon enough who are next president is and the make up of both the House and Senate. Expectations are that Congress will become even more Democratic but the economic recovery will be well under way by the time the new guys, or gals, take office. Regardless of who sits in the White House or who dominates the Capitol, there are four things that need to happen for our economy to turn around.

First, we need to make sure we have all the pieces. In late 2007 we all thought the sub-prime situation will be contained, or at least that's what Bernanke told us. But then oil prices skyrocketed, credit markets froze, global growth slowed, and the consumer was halloweened into the lowest confidence index ever!! So first things first. Let's try to figure out what else is lurking in the shadows on all hollow's eve. Like Humpty, we can't fix'im if we don't have all the pieces.

Second, it's going to take time. It takes time for wounds to heal and it will take time for any financial aid to flow through the system. Many banks are still in the process of applying for capital. And although there are now doubts as to how the banks will use taxpayer money, more of them are committing to use the money for what it was intended...lending. There are still some details to iron out as to specific requirements the banks must meet, but two areas that have been mentioned are that the funds are used for lending to business and consumers, and that executive compensation will be limited. It's not clear how the Treasury will enforce these two requirements but at least the phased release of the $700B will allow for monitoring compliance with these rules and enable additional requirements to be defined.

So that leads us to the third thing that needs to happen to hasten the economic recovery. We need the banks to tighten their belts and come up with disciplined, attainable standards, that allow qualified borrowers to get loans. Banks have gone from lending to anyone at anytime with little to no collateral, to not lending at all. Well, we now know, that was stupid! However, setting standards so strict that no one qualifies is also stupid. Get some legitimate underwriting guidelines and get back to what you are supposed to be doing! By the way, the first sector to lead in an economic recovery is the financial sector but without the confidence to begin lending, the economic pain will linger, the situation will worsen, and like Halloween, things could get gruesome.

Finally, the consumer has to get rid of fear and trepidation. Some people have lost their jobs and estimates are that unemployment may increase to 8% (from 6%) before coming back down. However, even the gainfully and permanently employed are proceeding carefully, as if in the dark in a haunted house. Television stations and other media, vying for advertising dollars in an increasingly competitive environment, continue to dramatize the tiniest detail, often resulting in a highly influential, yet overblown perception in the mind of the average person. The result is a hesitation to spend, a minimalization of life's everyday pleasures, and constant conversation about how bad things are. Spurred by big media, the consumer ends up scaring himself even more. BOO!!

This trend and this mentality need to be reversed. It begins with an understanding that we've been in a downturn before. Sure, this one could be worse than any we've experienced since the Great Depression, unlikely due to aggressive action by the FED and US Treasury, but scary nonetheless.

In times like these we all need to have patience and stick to our long term financial goals.

3 cups cooked rice, cooled to room temperature
1 1/2 cups cooked turkey, cubed
3/4 cup fresh tomatoes, finely diced
1/4 cup green onions, sliced
1/4 cup green pepper, finely diced
1 Tbsp. fresh basil, chopped
1/2 tsp. seasoned salt
1/4 tsp. ground red pepper
4 eggs, beaten
1/2 cup milk
3 oz. Cheddar cheese, shredded
3 oz. Mozzarella cheese, shredded

Combine rice, turkey, tomatoes, onions, green pepper, basil, salt, ground red pepper, eggs and milk in greased 9x13-inch pan. Top with cheeses. Bake at 350 degrees for 20 to 25 minutes or until knife inserted near center comes out clean.

To serve, cut quiche into eight squares, and then cut each square diagonally into two triangles.

Makes 8 servings.

One day a young husband came home from work and his wife met him at the door with an excited expression. She was home on maternity leave and had been perusing real estate ads in the newspaper and magazines. The Internet had not taken off yet.

"Call this number," she said.

It was an ad for a house for sale.

"But be careful," she added. "The agent will try to get you to make an..." she paused and looked cautiously from side to side....

"...an appointment."

This is a true story, by the way.

So the husband called the agent to find out where the reasonably priced two-bedroom "starter" home with the "charming back yard perfect for barbecues" was located. The couple liked to barbecue and entertain close friends and relatives.

The agent wanted to "meet" with the couple.

Uh-oh.

When the husband indicated reluctance to meet, the agent gave him the address. He sounded confused.

So the couple went and looked at the outside of the home (because they could not get in without the agent). Two years later, they bought their first home.

Years later, the wife is now a real estate agent and she remembers this first experience vividly.

She realizes she could have probably bought her first home when her child was a baby, if she had just talked to the agent. She now knows what agents really do.

He would have helped them figure out what they could really afford, had them preapproved by a reputable lender, and slowly eased them into being homeowners.

Not like a salesperson, but like an agent working on their behalf.

In America, the most common way to accumulate wealth is through home ownership.

At the time of a survey conducted by the National Association of Realtors, the "average" homeowner has $50,000 in "unrealized wealth" in their home. Those families with incomes over $75,000 averaged $100,000 in "unrealized wealth." Families with incomes less than $40,000 averaged $40,000 in unrealized wealth.

"Unrealized wealth" just means your house is worth more than what you owe on it. This is also called "equity." Savings. You own an asset that appreciates in value.

Over the last year, the "average" house increased 7.1% in value. Since the "average" house is worth $153,300, that means in one year the "average" homeowner accumulated $10,884 in wealth -- by doing nothing more than making a mortgage payment (plus taxes and insurance). Since interest and property taxes reduce your taxable income, the federal government is subsidizing this increase in "home wealth."Three out of four homeowners say their "home wealth" is greater than their "stock wealth."

The most common way to "tap in" to unrealized wealth is to refinance and pull cash out of the home, get a home equity line of credit or sell your home. At least forty percent of those who sell their home use some of the money to buy a bigger, better, or newer home.

Renting does not accumulate wealth.

No, I am not talking about going to the mall and meandering through all of the shops, looking for items on sale, or even better, a clearance sale! Well, actually, I am talking about that, in a way.

Existing-home sales increased last month as buyers responded to improved housing affordability conditions, according to the National Association of Realtors.

However with so many foreclosures being offered for sale at steep discounts, still many homebuyers are fearful of the direction the real estate market is going, while others have even decided to wait until the sale is over before jumping of the fence. Now does that sound silly?

Anybody knows that when high quality apparel, electronics, home furnishings, or household items go on sale, it is a good time to buy. Sure, it is quite possible that if we wait another week the item will be reduced even further. It is also possible that other savvy shoppers would find the sale price so compelling there will not be any left to mark down. Personally, I think this is a great time to start shopping.

I am not proposing a free-spending spree even if Louis Vuitton is on sale. (What? You say Louis Vuitton never goes on sale? More on that later!) What I am suggesting is that there are good quality properties whose prices has plummeted right along with the market despite fundamentals that are still very strong. Hey, if you do not believe me, listen, or rather, look at what internationals buyers are doing...buying real estate in the United States!! Sure, they get great deals that are not available to all of us due to some of them paying cash or in excess of 60% for a down payment , but the point is that there are deals out there.

Ladies, if I told you that Manolo shoes were on sale for 50% of retail price, would it not be time to go try some of those high-heeled beauties on? Guys, if YOU hear that Manolo shoes are selling for 50% off, you might win some points, or the game, by suggesting to your lady a trip to the store. While out shopping, you might also find some really good deals for yourself. Of course, you’ll have to try everything on, make sure it fits well; look at yourself in the mirror to make sure it looks good; and compare it to other items and see which one you like best. (This is called shopping)

All I am suggesting is that it is time to do the same thing with real estate. This will also require trying them on in the form of proper research. If we find a property we like at a good price, we buy. (This is also called shopping)

*Now, back to the suggestion earlier that Louis Vuitton never goes on sale. At a PE of 11.6, a yield of 6%, a stock trading near a 52 week low, and other brands like Moet Chandon, Dom Perignon, and Tag Heuer, among others, LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SA may already be on sale! Contact your area Realtor ASAP.

You can contact me: andreshambley@keyes.com