Mike Conner, City Realty Inc. Olympia, WA

Yes, its that time of year already. Summer in the Northwest...not too many things can beat it. The weather is gorgeous, the city is hopping with events, and the real estate market is.....STABLE.

Obviously the climate in the real estate market and the wider economy is a little less sweltering than our weather has been so far this summer, but overall things could be much worse . The trick in analyzing market trends is to have data to measure against. For us, the data available to measure against just happens to be from the hottest real estate market in history. It is crucial to keep that in mind when looking at these trends. At first glance, you may feel that the charts I'm going to share paint a bleak picture. But when you consider that the data I'm using is from the past 5 years (translation: ridiculous, unsustainable growth rates and loose credit standards) then you may feel pretty good about the recent market activity.

Number of Sales

The first chart we'll look at shows the number of homes sold during the first half of each year (2005-2009). Pretty apparent that we are down in numbers from 2006, but I'm not convinced that is such a bad thing. Think about it...in 2006 we were in the midst of loose credit, risky loans, and EVERYONE was jumping in. A few years later when mortgage defaults began piling up, we realized that values had inflated due to an artificial demand. Now we are seeing demand drop back down to a realistic level, where subprime mortgages don't make up a large market segment. The downside, all that "equity" you built during the boom years may have dried up. But "equity" experienced through market value increases is not real money. Its sort of like going to a casino with $20 and sitting at a blackjack table. If you win your first couple of hands you can likely gamble for awhile with "house money", but you might want to pocket your $20...otherwise you could end up with "negative equity" when your hot streak ends.

Median Sale Prices

When you consider the drop in number of sales you would think that prices have dropped through the floor. However, you'd be wrong (at least so far). Though sales have become less frequent, the prices of those sales has remained relatively strong. This next chart shows the rise and fall of median sale prices for sales in the first half of each year (2005-2009). Interesting to compare the trends in this chart to the previous one...

Sitting on the Market

One of the main worries I hear when I'm talking with people about the prospect of selling their home is "I don't want my house to just sit on the market forever". This is a reasonable concern. I mean, who wants to keep their house spotless day in and day out just in case that perfect buyer decides to walk in the door TODAY? Well, hopefully this next chart will help you rest a little easier. If your home is near the median value for homes in our area and you are willing to be realistic with your pricing, you should experience pretty speedy results. Market time is up from a few years ago, but still relatively low. Here are the median days on the market for sales from the first half of each year (2005-2009).

If you want to get an even more detailed look at recent sales trends in our area, please see my previous post titled "Making Sense of the Olympia Real Estate Market: A 10 Year Snapshot". Now quit reading about statistics and go enjoy the sunshine!

From the views of Mt. Rainier and Puget Sound, to the majestic state capitol building, Olympia, WA has quite a bit to offer! Aside from the convenient location between Seattle and Portland, Olympia itself is brimming with opportunity. A healthy local economy driven by state government and local business has helped Olympia remain one of the best places in the country to call home.

I think this video is an excellent testament to the many wonderful things Olympia, WA has to offer. You can view the article from Kiplinger.com,  which ranks Olympia #6 on its Best Cities 2009 list, click here . The following tour of Olympia is provided courtesy of Kiplinger.com . ENJOY!

If you've turned on a TV or read a newspaper in the last year then you have likely heard talk that we are in the midst of a buyer's market in the real estate world. A buyer's market would lead you to believe that buyers are in control and are able to negotiate fantastic deals on their purchases. You may also be led to believe that sellers are desperate and that they will welcome all offers. While these things may be true in parts of the country, they certainly ARE NOT true here in the Olympia area! Unless you plan on purchasing a property that needs some good old sweat equity (in other words it is UGLY), you should plan on likely paying within 10% of the asking price.

Depending on what price range you are looking at, you may actually find yourself in the middle of a bidding war. In fact, the last 10 offers I have written with my buyer clients have been situations where there were competing offers on the house. Now logic will tell you that if you want to get a screaming deal on your house, competing with other offers is not ideal!

So, in what price ranges are you most likely to get a big discount from the asking price and in what price ranges are you likely to find yourself competing? The following chart will shed some light on that...

In this chart the green bars represent demand, or the percentage of total sales that fall in each price range. The purple represents supply, or the percent of active listings in each price range. You can see here that the price range where demand is higher than supply is everything under $300,000, and most dramatically in the $200,000-$250,000 range. This is the price range where you can expect to pay closest to the asking price (on average) and you are most likely to find yourself in competition with other offers. However, once you get above $300,000 the tables begin to turn. There is far more supply than there is demand. This means that sellers in this price range are going to be more likely to entertain a low offer and you may get a bigger discount on your purchase.

The most important thing for home buyers is to get connected with a real estate professional who is knowledgeable about local market trends, able to show you a detailed market analysis, easy to communicate with, and skilled in negotiating on the behalf of buyers. Finding the right agent will make your home buying experience far less stressful and should also save you money!

Are you waiting for mortgage rates to drop back down? It seems many potential buyers out there in the real estate market these days are trying to hold out until that perfect scenario presents itself: Low prices AND low rates.

Well here is my word of caution...don't wait TOO LONG! We've been fortunate over the past 15 years to have some extremely low interest rates available to homebuyers. However, when you turn the clock back a bit further things begin to look quite different.

Rather than rattle off a list of statistics and data I think this message is best told with a picture. I've created a chart which tracks the Annual National Average Contract Mortgage Rate Index. This index tracks conventional fixed and adjustable rate mortgages on resale single family homes, as reported by a sample of mortgage lenders. To get a good picture of HOW GOOD WE STILL HAVE IT, you have to look back about 30 years. So, here is my chart with average mortgage rates over the past 30 years:

STILL FEELING GREEDY?

Lacey Parks and Recreation Department has yet another action packed summer planned for kids and adults alike. Starting June 23rd, you can enjoy some great family friendly entertainment ABSOLUTELY FREE at Huntamer Park (map).

On Tuesday evenings at 6:30 you can enjoy the Children's Entertainment Series with events including Shakespeare in the Park, The Tom Question Show, and Recess Monkey.

Then on Wednesdays at noon, starting June 24th, there will be live musical performances in the park for "Lacey in Tune" concert series. Come out and see local performers take on jazz and swing, American pop, calypso & reggae, The Beatles and more.

On the weekends bring the whole family out for the Outdoor Cinema Series. Starting July 11, Saturday evenings will start off with 'Lacey's Got Game' at 7:00. The theme will be favorite TV game shows and audience members will be invited to participate and win prizes. Some of the games covered during the series are 'Let's Make a Deal', 'Family (and Friends) Feud', and 'Are you Smarter than a Grade-Schooler?'. After the sun goes down and the big screen comes down, you can settle in to watch one of the great movies offered like 'Kung-Fu Panda', 'Raiders of the Lost Ark', 'IronMan', and 'The Incredible Hulk'.

You can view the full schedule of events as well as some of the other programs offered for a fee by Lacey Parks and Recreation Dept. - Summer Event Schedule