Mike Hunter

The housing market in Sudbury is looking up. Inventory levels of unsold houses continue to drop ... and is now down to just an eight month supply (though it varies greatly by price points). Since a six month supply is considered to be a balanced market, favoring neither sellers nor buyers, it looks like we're at the closest to a balanced market we've been in a few years. Existing home sales (especially in the mid to lower end homes) have shown promising figures, as first-time buyers take advantage of the buyer tax credit and historically low interest rates. Nationally it has been reported that sales of single family homes surged by a little over 10 percent in October and were 24 percent above where they were a year before. We have had similar results in Sudbury. October sales were up one sale (it doesn't take a lot to be 10% above when you only have 12 sales) and we were very close to that 24% figure for year-to-year increase. Keep in mind that 2008 sales were down 45% from the year before. Why the big jump in activity? The number one reason, in my opinion, is that first time buyers rushed to wrap up deals before the scheduled November 30th expiration date of the $8,000 federal tax credit . That program has now been extended into next summer and we'll see if this takes some of the sense of urgency out of the winter market. On a bright note, it bodes very well for a similar surge in the upcoming spring market. The other factor that has a strong effect on the jump in activity is the drop in prices at the low and mid-level of the Sudbury market which has led to a high affordability index (measured by taking the prices of homes and comparing that with household incomes and monthly payments at current mortgage interest rates). By the way, interest rates for 30-year fixed loans have been hovering around five percent for weeks -- and recently dropped below that into the upper four percent range. A year ago, by comparison, the average 30-year rate was 6.2 percent. The upper end of the market has stubbornly had no measurable drop in prices and thus the low affordability index has severely impacted sales at the above $1 million price points. Recently I've had Sudbury sellers in the $million plus range tell me that "there just aren't any buyers out there". This is nonsense, the lack of sales in this price point is directly related to their low affordability index. For example, if you drive 7 miles east into Weston and Wellesley, where the prices in the $1 to $10 million range have dropped in direct proportion with the rest of the price ranges bringing them to a high affordability index point, there were a total of 164 sales over $1 million so far this year. When the $million+ sellers adjust their prices down to meet the market demand they will find that there are indeed buyers out there.

So how are things doing in our neck of the woods at the tail-end of the 2009 market?

Monthly Units Sold: there is a slight uptick in activity towards the end of the year, and if you look over the whole year we're probably running very close to even with 2008. The bright note is that what activity there is seems to be steady and trending slowly upward. The market environment is still unbalanced with too much inventory. In the high end, even though Sudbury continues to be a very desirable town, the tightness of mortgage money for jumbo loans continues to shrink the real buyer pool or shift the buyers to towns to the east of Sudbury that they couldn't afford a few years ago. Because of that phenomenon, prices especially at the higher end of the market will need to correct/adjust downward by the 15% that the mid and lower ends of the market have corrected to with great results.

Selling Price to Original Price Ratio: The ratios this year are all getting tighter and recently have started trending very close to their historical averages. This is probably due to a higher number of sales on which to base the statistics and the three year lag time for reality to really sink-in with sellers. For the past few years, across the entire price spectrum, the average SP/OP ratio has remained consistently at 91%, that is, the houses that did sell, sold at an average of 91% of what they originally put it on the market for. Looking at this chart, you'll see a spike in April, but that is due to a single sale new build with a host of add-ons, not statistically a repeatable event.

Monthly Average Sales Price: The laws of supply and demand are alive and well in Sudbury. Demand is clearly down, so the most attractive and best valued houses are the ones that have sold, the rest are chasing the market down. Studying this chart we see that over the first half of this year, the greatest demand is coming from the smaller/less expensive homes. As the year has gone on, we see more homes in the mid-range selling, partially due to the inevitable movement of foreclosures and short sales up into this price point. The spike in April is again a fluke due to one very high value home sale. Toward the end of the year, the prices have dropped back into the range of the smaller and less expensive homes, and appear to be slowly trending even or very slightly downward. Generally if there are good year-end bonuses we'll see an uptick in the sale of more expensive homes which has historically shown up on the radar screens in January month-end statistics.

Days On Market: the trend is almost parallel to last year's, but homes that do sell are selling a tad quicker, which is very encouraging. I think this has again been more a function of "High-Quality" houses coming on the market and selling and increased demand created by the stimulus package.

POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENTS IN THE MARKET AND PREDICTIONS FOR 2010: The general tenor among analysts is that the housing market will continue to improve during 2010. These are the reasons why: low mortgage rates, deflated home prices equal good bargains, improving economy, and reduced inventory because of value bargain hunters. While the economy is far from getting a terrific bill of health, things are steadily improving from 2008. I feel that 2010 is the year of high hopes of recovery. I foresee that it is likely that prices will at least stabilize. Looking at today's market I do not see any chance of housing inflation or appreciation beyond the old historical 3% annual rate for a number of years. As prices stabilize, Sudbury buyers and sellers (and developers) who have been watching from the sidelines may acknowledge that we have hit the bottom and enter the market. As the economy improves into 2010, I expect to see more people who have a natural need to buy and sell come back into the market. Plus with mortgage rates at such low levels (even for some jumbo loan products) and looking to remain that way into early 2010, and the expanded income limits for the home buyer tax credit allowing more Sudbury buyers (and some sellers) to take advantage, I think we'll see a nice increase in the level of activity come early spring.

If I can be of help to you in buying or selling a home in Sudbury give me a call at 978-580-1069.

It is likely that for much of 2009 the real estate market will not be greatly different than it is now. That is not to say that there should not be some improvement, and that we might actually be within or near the bottoming period of the market. With confidence affected by the financial turbulence/negative media and having a look at the following statistical information, it is likely we will see demand for housing purchases remain subdued in the near future.

One caveat, before we delve into the statistics: the current real estate market is unlike anything many of us have seen in a long while. Although I will be presenting you actual historical information, it is risky to form opinions based on past indicators that most likely are losing their predictive power in this different market environment. As the saying goes, you can't drive forward by looking in the rearview mirror.

Monthly Units Sold: there is very little activity compared to the same periods last year, and what activity there is seems to have peaked in June and July and is in a general decline. Although it's tough to predict the future, given a five-month trend of less and less, especially when compared to the same periods for the previous year, the market environment is unbalanced with too much inventory and prices will have to go down. Even though Sudbury continues to be a desirable town, the bleak economy will make it out of reach for more people than in the past. When buyers' ability to afford to buy here dips, prices will need to fall in order to sell the homes that are currently on the market.

Selling Price to Original Price Ratio: In the beginning of the year sellers and their agents didn't get it that the market had changed and the prices had to drop. Once they figured that out, around May, the ratios climbed to just a bit below their historical averages. The spike in December is a good one, but too little data exists to call it a trend.

In a hot market everything sells, and condition, location and price are not as critical. They may add to days on market, but not prevent an eventual sale. However, in a weak market like we have now, only the "High-Quality" properties sell: homes with desirable locations, updated, staged and in perfect condition, and priced at the correct point where they are seen as the best value among their competition.

If your home is not that "High-Quality" house, for whatever reason, and you are in a situation where you must sell your house and you still have equity in the house, you should be extremely aggressive in your pricing strategy. Based on a number of market factors, including the current inventory levels in Sudbury, prices are likely to continue to fall. You have the option to price to sell quickly in an effort to preserve your remaining equity or you can hold out for a turnaround that probably will not happen for quite a while. We all know the laws of supply and demand. With fewer buyers due to economics and mortgage restrictions there are not enough shoppers to buy all the inventory. Obviously then the most attractive and best valued houses are the ones that will sell.

Monthly Average Sales Price: As the year started, the drop in sales price started with the small, older homes in the neighborhoods of central and south Sudbury. Later in the year, the decline had spread to the multi-million dollar homes in north Sudbury as well. The smaller homes were impacted sooner by foreclosures, short sales, and vacancies among the entry level homes, which in turn caused competitive pricing among sellers. In the middle of the year the slowdown rippled up to the mid-sized home and in the last half to the larger homes. So we see that over the year, the demand reversed itself, with the greatest demand now coming from the smaller homes - incomes match better with the prices of smaller homes and price reductions have obviously gotten buyers excited. Also, one has to wonder, without all the "trick mortgages" out there are we finding out how few people can really afford to pay over a million dollars for a house.

Days On Market: the trend is generally downward, which is very encouraging. It's probably hard to remember, but just a couple of years ago we used to think of a property as "stale" if it had been on the market for 90 days. Looking at the numbers for 2007, I think we can see that the market was much more stable than it became in 2008 when days on market jumped all over the place. I think the trend over the last few months may be more a function of "High-Quality" houses selling and sellers who would like to sell but are waiting on the sidelines for a while for the market to recover, than increased demand.

POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENTS IN THE MARKET
The question on everybody's lips (especially potential buyers of course) is "Will Prices Stop Dropping?" Probably, possibly, maybe. Buyers are mostly on the sidelines, waiting for prices to correct. It will surely soon be apparent to most buyers and sellers, however, that prices are really so close to the bottom that it makes no difference where the exact bottom is. As buyers become more active, this will encourage more potential sellers to list their homes for sale. The likely effect is that there will continue to be a wide choice of homes to buy for the next few months as we approach the "Spring Market" , and it is quite possible that there will be a shortage of "High-Quality" homes to buy.

It generally takes a long-established sellers' market, or at the least a balanced market, with the levels of inventory matching the demand before price stability becomes a reality. What we probably can look forward to in the near future in Sudbury is a bottoming-out in 2009, possibly even happening during the Spring Market. Average sales prices will fluctuate a little just as they have over the past several months. Home sales will continue around their present rate for the coming months and sellers who price their homes for sale at fair market value will sell them reasonably quickly, say in 45-90 days.

The Bottom Line:

For buyers, especially first time home buyers, this is a GREAT time to buy. We are at or near the bottom range in prices, and mortgages rates are at record lows.

For sellers, the near future may continue to present challenges, but the market is expected to start stabilizing this year and if you have a desirable house properly priced, selling it is going to get a little easier.

Now that the traditional busy "Spring Market" is about to begin, if I can be of help to you in buying or selling a home in Sudbury give me a call at 978-580-1069.

Mike Hunter, the House Hunter
Your Neighborhood Realtor for Sudbury and Metrowest Boston.

Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage
447 Boston Post Rd, Sudbury, MA 01776
Tel: 978.580.1069
Blog: http://househunter3.blogspot.com
Email: Mike.Hunter@NEMoves.com
Web: www.HunterTheHouseHunter.com

Information for charts from MLSPIN. It is deemed Reliable but not Guaranteed.

Urban legend has it that when asked about the color selections of Model-T Fords, Henry Ford was said to have answered, "You can have any color you want as long as it's black".

That was a long time ago, and we all live in a very colorful world now.

To get the latest color trends you only have to watch HGTV or go to the paint department of any respectable home improvement store. But have you ever wondered what the real estate market has to say about the exterior color of your house?

Of course it's a truism that white houses have universal appeal, but there are many other choices, too. So I decided to see how other house colors fared.

We realtors use many different color names, for the purposes of this chart I've simplified the color descriptions somewhat, combining the likes of "buttercup", "briarwood" and "sandalwood" into the "tan" category.

The chart below shows the most popular colors by the number of sales in the MLS-PIN for Sudbury in the year 2008.

I hope you enjoy and find the information useful.

Everybody's heard the old saw about "location, location, & location".

But have you ever wondered what the market has to say about the style of your house?

Although it's hard to go wrong by buying a colonial in Sudbury, there are many other choices, too. So I decided to see how other house styles fared.

Of course, we here in New England have many styles of colonials, such as Cape, Saltbox, Garrison, & Four-Square, for the purposes of this chart I've combined some of them together. If you want to see definitions and examples of House Styles in New England click here.

So below is a pie chart of different house styles in Sudbury showing the most popular styles by number of sales in the MLS-PIN in the year 2008.

I hope you enjoy and find the information useful.

Hello and welcome to Mike the House Hunter's market analysis for the Sudbury, MA real estate market as of September 2008. Rather than the typical nominal Buyer/Seller market information, I am going to give you a complete picture of all segments of the Sudbury market. I hope you'll enjoy it and/or find it useful. BTW if I can be of help to you in buying or selling a home in Sudbury give me a call at 978-580-1069.

First, let's start with the Median House Prices.

Median Home Price Explaination: The median price is a useful statistic and is commonly used by the national market giants like Case-Schiller and others, as it shows the point at which half of the homes that sold in the time period are above and half of the homes are below. As you can see on the chart the median for the year ending December 31, 2007 was $31,750 higher than we are seeing today. Taking the difference between then and now you get a drop of 5.15% from last year, not great, but not catastrophic.

Now, let's go into more depth on the Sudbury market.

There are three distinct segments to this market: entry-level; mid-range; and luxury, and as might be expected, they've all behaved very differently this year.

Buyers and sellers of real estate in the Sudbury market need to look at four charts to truly understand what's happening for each of the price segments, noting that the figures shown are averages for the month.

• First, you need to see the number of units sold in each month that will give you an idea of the actual activity that is taking place.
  
• Next, you need to look at the monthly average price which will tell you the general part of the market that is moving off the shelves.
  
• Next, you need to look at the list to sales ratio which will tell you the point at which sellers sell and buyers buy
  
• And last, you need to look at the days on market, which will give you a general idea of the time it takes to sell one of these homes in today's market.

To Begin With, let's look at what's happening in the ENTRY LEVEL MARKET in Sudbury this year so far.

Entry Level Market Statistics Explanation

• Monthly units sold: activity seems to have bottomed-out in early summer and is in a general recovery.
  
• List to sales ratio: sellers and their agents needed most of the year to understand (and believe) that the market has changed and the prices have dropped. Once they figured that out, around May, the ratios climbed to just about their historical averages.
  
• Monthly average price: As the number of units goes up, the prices go down - again the buyers, sellers and their agents seem to be getting the message.
  
• Days on market: the time it takes to sell in this price point should not be this high, and reminds us all that a home is not a liquid investment.

Next, let's look at what's happening in the MIDDLE LEVEL (MOVE-UP) MARKET in Sudbury this year so far.

Mid Level Market Statistics Explanation

• Monthly units sold: there is very little activity, and what activity there is seems to have bottomed-out in early summer and is in a general recovery, and although it may be too early to call, August figures may be predicting another slide.
  
• List to sales ratio: sellers and their agents in this price range are still in denial that the market has dropped and this is evident in this chart.
  
• Monthly average price: the few homes that are selling are in a very narrow range, which suggests that the traditional move-up buyers are having trouble selling their starter homes, and some of the buyers in this price point may well be first-time home buyers.
  
• Days on market: the trend is generally upward, which is not encouraging if you're a seller, but great if you're a buyer with no house to sell.

And last, let's look at what's happening in the LUXURY MARKET in Sudbury this year so far.

Luxury Home Market Statistics Explanation

• Monthly units sold: there is very little activity, and what activity there is seems to have spiked into a general recovery in June (it may be spurred by needing to get into a home before school starts), and although it's tough to predict the future on a three-month trend, August figures are looking like a steady downward slide.
  
• List to sales ratio: luxury homes are very difficult to price, as once you get up to a certain square footage in size, the real differences in price are directly related to the level of detail, fit and finishes, updating, and desired amenities. This chart shows that buyers and sellers have very different ideas of what adds value, an age-old dilemma.
  
• Monthly average price: the few homes that are selling are tending to be in the upper end of the range which sort of reflects the consolidation of wealth in our current economy. As a side note, there does not appear to be a market for properties above $2 million in Sudbury at this time.
  
• Days on market: the trend is generally downward, which is very encouraging, but may be more a function of sellers who would like to sell but are waiting on the sidelines for a while for the market to recover.

In Summary, all Markets are LOCAL!

Just as the national statistics you hear on the news can't tell you how your local market is doing, buying or selling in different price points within a town can be a different experience. I hope the information I've presented here has increased your awareness of the inability to generalize even within a local market, and helped you to be a more informed consumer!

Mike Hunter, the House Hunter
Your Neighborhood Realtor for Sudbury and Metrowest Boston.

BTW if I can be of help to you in buying or selling a home in Sudbury give me a call at 978-580-1069.

Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage
447 Boston Post Rd, Sudbury, MA 01776
Tel: 978.580.1069
Blog: http://househunter3.blogspot.com
Email: Mike.Hunter@NEMoves.com
Web: www.HunterTheHouseHunter.com
Information deemed Reliable but not Guaranteed.

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