All Listings-The REO and Short-Sale segments below are NOT in addition to these numbers but are simply what COMPRISES or makes up, these base numbers!
Base Numbers: # DOM (Days on the market) Median Home Price
Actives: 1506 DOM: 121 $625,000 Median
CTS: 1087 DOM: 116 $299,000
Pend: 226 DOM: 103 $315,000
Sold: 450 DOM: 101 $325,000
Sold'08: 466 DOM: 93 $355,000 ONLY down 8.5% over last year! Good News Here! Compare this to the historic 25-30% slips of the past few years!! Can you spell "Bottom"??But wait! If the REO market comes roaring back count on this number to falter and fall. That's IF the Asset Managers insist on "dumping" inventory.
REO:
Actives: 126 DOM: 41 $281,200 Median
CTS: 146 DOM: 45 $256,200
Pend: 63 DOM: 44 $196,500
Sold: 151 DOM: 55 $251,300 Down 18% over ‘08
08 Sold: 202 DOM: 68 $305,450 Sales down 25% over ‘08
Short-Sale:
Actives: 162 DOM 95 $335,475 Median
CTS: 658!!DOM 143 $275,000
Pend: 71 DOM 166 $280,000
Sold: 79 DOM: 177 $276,700
08 Sold: 49 DOM: 151 $340,000 down 19.5% from '08
Conclusions:
•· Sales for SS are UP 62% from '08 but are the lowest since March of '09 and down from the "historic" high of 107 in June.
•· Days on the market for SS still BIG. A smidgen under 6 months!
•· If you do short-sales only you'd better have it down! The high DOM time is most likely due to Realtor/Agents taking on "SS" that just won't ever close, no hardship, no insolvency, just a disgruntled homeowner and/or NOT KNOWING how to process the sale.
•· Look at how high the Median is for ALL Active Listings: A whopping $625,000 reflective of the skinny inventory of the REO and Short-Sale markets!
•· The proof though is in the Pendings AND Sales!
•· Lack of REO inventory is causing much frustration amongst Buyers AND their Realtors! The competition is making Realtor/Agents bid way over the asking just to get looked at!
•· The Asset Managers are getting hip to the "overbid" ploy and some Reo Agents are being told to have the big offers be prepared to either remove their "appraisal contingency" at offer acceptance or have their earnest money deposit be forfeited should they NOT get the appraisal!
•· Short-Sales once again account for a staggering 60+% of ALL CTS! But ONLY 17.5% of Sales!!
•· Nothing to really "hang your hat on" as far as the amount of Shorts being completed.
All Listings-The REO and Short-Sale segments below are NOT in addition to these numbers but are simply what COMPRISES or makes up, these base numbers!
Base Numbers: # DOM (Days on the market) Median Home Price
Actives: 1506 DOM: 121 $625,000 Median
CTS: 1087 DOM: 116 $299,000
Pend: 226 DOM: 103 $315,000
Sold: 450 DOM: 101 $325,000
Sold'08: 466 DOM: 93 $355,000
ONLY down 8.5% over last year! Good News Here! Compare this to the historic 25-30% slips of the past few years!! Can you spell "Bottom"??But wait! If the REO market comes roaring back count on this number to falter and fall. That's IF the Asset Managers insist on "dumping" inventory.
REO:
Actives: 126 DOM: 41 $281,200 Median
CTS: 146 DOM: 45 $256,200
Pend: 63 DOM: 44 $196,500
Sold: 151 DOM: 55 $251,300 Down 18% over ‘08
08 Sold: 202 DOM: 68 $305,450 Sales down 25% over ‘08
Short-Sale:
Actives: 162 DOM 95 $335,475 Median
CTS: 658!!DOM 143 $275,000
Pend: 71 DOM 166 $280,000
Sold: 79 DOM: 177 $276,700
08 Sold: 49 DOM: 151 $340,000 down 19.5% from '08
Conclusions:
•· Sales for SS are UP 62% from '08 but are the lowest since March of '09 and down from the "historic" high of 107 in June.
•· Days on the market for SS still BIG. A smidgen under 6 months!
•· If you do short-sales only you'd better have it down! The high DOM time is most likely due to Realtor/Agents taking on "SS" that just won't ever close, no hardship, no insolvency, just a disgruntled homeowner and/or NOT KNOWING how to process the sale.
•· Look at how high the Median is for ALL Active Listings: A whopping $625,000 reflective of the skinny inventory of the REO and Short-Sale markets!
•· The proof though is in the Pendings AND Sales!
•· Lack of REO inventory is causing much frustration amongst Buyers AND their Realtors! The competition is making Realtor/Agents bid way over the asking just to get looked at!
•· The Asset Managers are getting hip to the "overbid" ploy and some Reo Agents are being told to have the big offers be prepared to either remove their "appraisal contingency" at offer acceptance or have their earnest money deposit be forfeited should they NOT get the appraisal!
•· Short-Sales once again account for a staggering 60+% of ALL CTS! But ONLY 17.5% of Sales!!
•· Nothing to really "hang your hat on" as far as the amount of Shorts being completed.
Sales Data-July 2009 Sonoma County
2009 July Sales:
ALL CATEGORIES (Single family,condos,Farms and Ranches ONLY) :
Active listings-1574
Continue to show or just in escrow:-1058
Pending-firmed up escrows: 227
Sold: 500 Up 6.5% over last year at this time-not spectacular by any means!
However, Median Price down ONLY 11.25%!!
REO(Real Estate Owned-bank foreclosed properties):
A-131 (only 8% of ALL current listings!)
CTS-153 (14.5% of all )
Pending: 78 (34% of all)
Solds: 147 (29% of all sales)
Short Sales -Those selling below current loans secured on their house:
A-186 (12% of all Actives)
CTS-645 (61% of CTS!! A BIG number!)
Pending 67 (29.5%)
Sold: 86 (17% of all sales Short-Sales: Up 42% over last year but DOWN 14% from previous month!)
Total foreclosure market is 46% of SOLDS or 233 of marketplace
REO's-sales down 32% over last year!
HOWEVER!! VACANT HOMES:
A-545 Median $440,00 DOM 102
CTS-416 Median $279,000
Pending-119
Sold-303 $310, 85DOM 60% of all the sold listings are VACANT!!
So what do these numbers tell us? Our Median Price overall is down ONLY 11.25%!! REO Median sales price- DOWN 20% dispels the therory of price creep in the REO market? Short-Sales: Median DOWN 25% over last year!! Still not much to hang your hat on! So what in the Wide,Wide,Wide world of sports is a goin' on around here?
I taught my training class today at Keller Williams here in Santa Rosa, Sonoma County, "The Wine Country"! Now I think we can do a play on words here because I keep hearing Realtors/Agent complaining about the lack of inventory, lack of REO's and now having to "Sell" the dreaded "Short-Sale". Yes, this is truly becoming the "Whine Country"!!
Our local newspaper, the Press Democrat, made a nice headline with "Sales are slipping" as our "closed sales" are down and we should be hitting 500+ units but just eecked out about 480 in June. Now here's the reason our "Sales" are down. The hottest price point is the sub $400,000 price point. This is why our median price still hovers around the $305,000- $315,000 range. We are selling half above and half below this price point. Now the bulk of those sales have been the foreclosed home market or REO (Real Estate Owned) bank owned properties. However, with the moratorium and more informal agreements with Uncle Sam, we've seen this popular listing waning in our "Whine Country". Hence Realtors/Agents are taking the pent-up demand and selling "Short-Sales".
The scoop on Short-Sales is this; we have 1050 Continue to Show sales now in escrow. This is the less firm escrow where inspections, loan approval, etc have yet to be done and more importantly, with the Short-Sale, we've YET to get LENDER APPROVAL!! What happens is the average time on the market for Short-Sales is 180 days and we have over 665 of those 1050 Continue to Shows being "Short-Sales" escrows. They go in and take forever to close. Hence our "Closed Sales" are being delayed as the time gets stretched further out into the future. For the first time since we've tracked "Short-Sales" we broke the 100 closed sales mark for this type of transaction. The "Short-Sale" has been tracking upward very slowly. And it shows the learning curve, though still tough for many an agent, is starting to yield some decent numbers. We are NOT closing THAT many more REO's! Perhaps 165 for the month of June.
If you add the two we've got about a 45% share of ALL sales still being the foreclosed market segment. Now with this lack of inventory comes "overbidding" and then the subsequent appraisal issues. We no longer have "Willing Buyer/Willing Seller"! An overbid of $50,000 in our county is being shot down by an appraiser from Gilroy who has gotten his "assignment" from the HVCC to perform the appraisal. This is creating major headaches for one and all. So now you've got to sell your house not only to the Buyer but the underwriter, appraiser and most likely a "final review" guy!! Daunting to say the least.
The California Association of Realtors has found their First-time Buyer Housing Affordability Index stood at 69% in the first quarter of 2009!! With a median price of an entry level home at $213,040 the average payment would be $1,270/month! You would need an annual income of $38,090 to afford this home.
Consider the 2nd quarter of 2007 when the affordability factor was at 26%! Median House price for entry level was $503,000, Monthly payment of $3,193.00/month with an annual income of $95,803!!
We've come a long way in pricing and are allowing SO MANY more buyers into the marketplace!! Here in Lovely Sonoma County we have 63% affordability for first timer homebuyers with median rice of $275,000 (you can get homes for a LOT LESS! We just sold a condo for $72,000!) With payments of $1,640 and an income of $49,260!! Big news. Now's the time to take advantage of decreased pricing, low interest rates and motivated Sellers!
Many lament the FHA loans we are making now predicting another wave of foreclosures in the near future. Let's remember this vital point--The monthly payment is almost 63% LESS than at the market peak!! This is much more SUSTAINABLE! Now if we can just get some inventory!
The June sales data shows the amount of REO's listing WAY DOWN! Here in Sonoma County the REO market represents just 9% of ALL ACTIVE listings BUT 35% of ALL SALES!! The Short-Sale market is markedly UP from 80 sales last month to 98--a historic high for OUR County, accounting for 21% of all sales in June. Still not much to hang your hat on but certainly being done! Oddly enough Short-Sales make up a whopping 42% of all of our 1059 Continue to Show listings! If you add the two numbers you see our market is still dominated by the "pre-forclosure" and "Foreclosure" markets with 56% of All sales being either REO or Short-Sales.
On the horizon-- the Alt "A" and "Option ARM" reset nightmare!! Is this just the beginning? Will Short-Sales begin to dominate the marketplace replacing the REO as THE hot-property as the banks hold onto their foreclosure inventory? Time will tell!
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I am a Realtor working exclusively in Sonoma County for the past 30 years. I have a weekly radio show which is heard every Sunday, 9:00AM to 10:00AM PST, broadcasting over the Internet at www.KSRO.com
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