Michael Welk

What is a FICO score?
FICO stands for Fair Isaac Corporation, a company that created the most used credit scoring model in the United States. An individual’s credit score is calculated through a statistical algorithm and is used as a factor in determining the likelihood of a borrower defaulting on a loan. FICO scores are generally used for obtaining mortgages, car loans or consumer credit. The scores are provided from the three major credit reporting agencies: Equifax, Experian and Transunion. Typically, there is a variance amongst the scores since each agency has a slightly different scoring formula. FICO scores range from 300 – 850, with higher scores being considered less risky. For mortgage lending purposes, any score over a 680 is considered good and above a 750 is considered excellent. Any score below 580 is considered great risk and will be challenging for such a borrower to secure financing.
The factors that contribute to a FICO score and the weighted percentages for each are as follows:
• 35% — timeliness of payments (adverse dings to scores for any payment greater than 30 days later, collections, past due accounts)
• 30% — the ratio of used debt to allowable debt for consumer credit (an individual that maxes out their credit cards will see a decrease in their score)
• 15% — length of credit history (the more credit history and showing proof of consistent timely payment, the better the score)
• 10% — types of credit used (installment, revolving, mortgage)
• 10% — recent credit inquiries and recent new credit (taking out a fair amount of new credit with multiple credit inquires can adversely impact a score)

There are some signs of strengthening in our Denver market. The metro area's inventory of available resale housing decreased 20% to 23,120 units in October from October 2007. Some of this reduced inventory is attributed to homeowners taking their properties off the market in frustration because their property is not selling, but lower inventory implies a strengthening market. Remember, the Denver area had housing inventory of 31,989 units in July 2006. Home sales rose 14% to 4,265 in September compared to the same month last year. This is due almost entirely to the lower-end of the market (under $180K) selling like hotcakes. October's median selling price for single-family homes decreased 12% to $206,000 from the same month of '07, and was down 4.7% from September's median of $216,150. Median selling price for single-family homes dropped 10.5% to $222,000 through October, from $248,000 through October '07.Prices are still falling, but at a slowing pace. This trend should continue into 2009 when it is expected to bottom out and slowly climb back. Hang on, it's gonna continue to be a wild ride!

A lot of clients ask me how to figure out what market rents are in a neighborhood. This is a critical input into the calculations an investor needs to make in order to determine what their return on investment will be on a rental property. So you don't want to screw this up! Unfortunately, this is one of the many figures new investors get wrong.

One place people go to get rents is Rent-o-Meter. Rent-o-Meter is billed as an online resource to get accurate market rents. In my experience it is anything but! However, I have a fairly simple solution. Multiply what you see on Rent-o-Meter by 80% and you'll probably be close. I can't explain why but I find rents on Rent-o-Meter to be about 25% high, so multiplying their rents by 80% will get you close (do the math, it works out).

So then, how do you get market rents? Simple: start at the subject property and drive concentric circles around the neighborhood. Call every For Rent sign you see (if you don't see any this is a good sign!). Interview the landlords. A subtle but telling sign is how polite the landlords are on the phone. If they act overly solicitous and desperate it's a sign that vacancies are high and they're desperate to get tenants - not a good sign for you. If they are breezy, abrupt, and even rude, that's GREAT! It means they have too many phone calls for their vacancy and it's a strong landlord market. This is what you want to hear!

In many neighborhoods around town today this is exactly what you'll find. I know. When the vacancy rate was 13% a few years ago I was very nice over the phone. Now that it's 4%...well, a little less nice. Nothing like good -ol' market research.

The talk around the water cooler these days is all about LOANS. Who can get them? At what price? What if I already have a few loans, do I still qualify? A year or two ago the question was at what price do I get a loan (those were the days!). Today it is "am I still in the game?"

Here's the deal: if you have an owner occupied loan and 3 investor loans you cannot buy any more properties and get Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac financing, meaning you can't get a conventional 30-year fixed loan. Now, my hope is that someone reads this and tells me I'm wrong. That would be great! But as far as I know that is the case.

Where does this leave you? You can pursue loans that are warehoused by lenders, meaning they are not sold on the backend to Fannie or Freddie. You are probably looking at a minimum of 20% down but more importantly it will be almost impossible to get a 30-year loan. But a 5/1 ARM is not out of the question. (Lenders, please start a dialogue here and let folks know who has what products available.) There is also Hard Money available. I met with a group of high-end Hard Money lenders today to discuss options and the consensus is that they are proceeding...but with extreme caution.

A final version is to contact smaller local lenders. You'll need 25% down, but if your story makes sense, you'll get your loan - and usually at an attractive rate. Let me know what your situation is and I'll try to refer you to the right person.

Have you ever driven through Aurora North looking for a rental property and taken a close look at the roofs? Here's what you'll see: a bunch of 1950's ranches in varying states of repair or disrepair, lawns that are often grassless, old handcrank windows and roofs in almost perfect condition! This surprised me at first and perplexed me for a long time. Why, in a neighborhood devastated by foreclosures with properties with massive deferred maintenance are the roofs in such condition? Really! Stand in the middle of a typical street and looking at 10 roofs simultaneously, you'll be amazed. Well, it turns out the answer is pretty simple. There was a huge hailstorm in the mid-90's and most of the roofs were replaced by insurance companies then. The result is that while you certainly need to be careful about what you buy in Aurora North, chances are your roof is going to be fine. Thank goodness for small favors.