
Today I decided to take a look at sales trends over the past 6 years to see if anything interesting popped out. Below are sales reported by our MLS from 2003 through 2008. I've listed number of homes sold, average days on market, average list price, average sales price, median sales price, and sales price to list price ratio for each year.
2003 Lakefront Sales
Number of Homes Sold: 22
Average Days on Market: 96
Average List Price: $898,584
Average Sales Price: $845,068
Median Sales Price: $703,750
Sales Price/List Price: 96%
2004 Lakefront Sales
Number of Homes Sold: 23
Average Days on Market: 118
Average List Price: $935,086
Average Sales Price: $904,208
Median Sales Price: $824,500
Sales Price/List Price: 96%
2005 Lakefront Sales
Number of Homes Sold: 43
Average Days on Market: 101
Average List Price: $1,272,536
Average Sales Price: $1,213,295
Median Sales Price: $1,025,000
Sales Price/List Price: 97%
2006 Lakefront Sales
Number of Homes Sold: 34
Average Days on Market: 127
Average List Price: $1,519,585
Average Sales Price: $1,391,191
Median Sales Price: $1,100,000
Sales Price/List Price: 92%
2007 Lakefront Sales
Number of Homes Sold: 20
Average Days on Market: 132
Average List Price: $1,523,836
Average Sales Price: $1,438,973
Median Sales Price: $1,420,000
Sales Price/List Price: 94%
2008 Lakefront Sales
Number of Homes Sold (from January to November 10): 13
Average Days on Market: 190
Average List Price: $1,459,453
Average Sales Price: $1,307,230
Median Sales Price: $1,350,000
Sales Price/List Price: 90%
Things that stick out to me
Obviously there's a big drop off in sales in 2008. That is expected. Sales Price/List Price ratios have also dropped which is expected with so many homes on the market. Days on Market has increased with Supply. What's interesting to see is that sales prices haven't dipped like the rest of the market. We've seen depreciation of approximately 20-30% throughout the valley but the lakefront market has been relatively stable. Click here to read a recent article regarding lakefront homes by Tyler Wood who also works at Coldwell Banker.
Originally Posted at www.bigbearlakefrontinfo.com
Monday morning I received an email from a past client who asked me, "When's the best time to sell a Lakefront in Big Bear"? My initial response was Summer. The weather is great, the water level is usually at it's highest point after the winter snow melt, and it seems like the recreational focus shifts from the ski slopes over to the lake. I wasn't sure if my answer was convincing enough (for either of us) so I thought it would be a good opportunity to do some research and share it with everyone. So here you go, Jim.
I looked at 4 key factors in determining when to put your home on the market:
1. Let's take a look at when lakefront homes have sold in the past. I've broken down sales per month over the past 6 years below. It's important to note that these are closed sales. Most buyers and sellers have been in escrow for 30-60 days prior to this so the activity was really 1-2 months prior to the recording date.
Looking at the numbers above I get the following information: January averaged 1.83 sales. February averaged 1.33 sales. March averaged 2.0 sales. April averaged 2.67 sales. May averaged 2.33 sales. June averaged 1.17 sales. July averaged 2.33 sales. August averaged 2.67 sales. September averaged 2.5 sales. October averaged 2.83 sales. November averaged 2.6 sales. And December averaged 2.4 sales. I think you would agree that the first quarter of each year seems to be slightly weaker than the rest of the year......probably because of the weather. But the numbers aren't THAT far off. If homes are priced right, they seem to sell in all seasons of the year.
2. Next, I would recommend that you look at the lake level. Over the past 6 years, the lake has been down over 17.47 feet at the dam (on October 18, 2004) and it's been as high as .34 inches from being full (on May 15, 2006). For more information on lake levels read this post, or click here to see how lake levels impact property values. The photos below were taken from the backyard of the same home and visually prove my point. The top photo was taken in 2004 and the bottom in 2006.
3. Interest rates are another key factor to take a look at. Now.... I understand that some buyers in the $1M to $4M price range for a second home aren't affected by this as much (they pay cash, they may have a better credit rating, etc), but it does affect the affordability for everyone in general. Below is a graph completed by homefinders.com which shows where interest rates have been over the past 25 years on a conventional 30 year fixed rate. Some lenders are speculating that rates will go above 7% next year if more people put money in their pocket instead of investing in long term bonds. It will be interesting to see. If a buyer is in the jumbo loan market, things will change dramatically! Rates for jumbo loans right now are lousy which impacts loans over the $417,000 mark and home sales in the upper end.
4. I saved the most important factor for last. Supply and Demand....the true measure of when to sell your home. How does your home compare to the competition and how many homes are on the market? A great tool in determining how your home compares to others is to put yourself in a buyers eye. Physically view the competition. Walk through each home as if you wanted to buy in the area and see the positives and negatives of each property. Are they clean? Is the water deeper near one home or another? Are they offering it furnished? Does it have rental history? How's the view? The access? And how does this compare to yours? Currently there are 39 lakefront homes for sale in Big Bear. That seems high, considering only 13 have sold so far this year. Most of these properties have been sitting on the market all year. They've been rejected for one reason or another (price, location, size, etc) and probably won't sell unless they lower their price. So lets make sure your property stands out and is competitively priced!
If I can answer any questions or if you would like to know what the value of your home is in todays market feel free to email me at mikewochner@gmail.com
Originally posted at www.bigbearlakefrontinfo.com
Below are pending and closed sales along the lake in Big Bear Lake, California for the 3rd Quarter.
(July 1, 2008 through September 30, 2008)
Pending Sales
|
Property Address |
List Price |
Days On Market |
Residential Square Footage |
Square Footage of Land |
|
$695,000 |
112 |
1418 |
8500 |
|
|
$1,150,000 |
136 |
2622 |
8469 |
|
|
39427 Silver Pine Court |
$1,495,000 |
204 |
5609 |
14201 |
|
$1,695,000 |
108 |
1352 |
41000 |
|
|
$1,699,000 |
850 |
3629 |
13750 |
|
|
$4,775,000 |
989 |
7786 |
31821 |
|
|
Average |
$2,714,000 |
400 |
3736 |
14320 |
I've decided not to give my opinion on each particular pending sale because I would hate to have it affect any of the transactions positively or negatively in either direction.
Closed Sales
777 Cove Drive, Big Bear Lake, CA 92315
Built in 1961, 3153 Square Feet, 3 Bedrooms, 2.75 Baths on a 27,700 square foot lot with Lake Views from virtually every room. Vaulted ceilings, 4 fireplaces, 3 bedrooms, a great room, den, family room and custom kitchen. Quality built-ins. High end custom windows and doors, indirect lighting, a step down bar and a custom 3 slip covered dock. Listed for $2,250,000 and sold on 10/2/2008 for $2,100,000. It was on the market for 85 days.
My Opinion: This is a premium location. It was protected from the wind, you had plenty of breathing room around you (it sits on a 27,700 square foot lot), and the homes around it are consistently large which will help it hold it's value from a comparable standpoint. Some might not like the layout, but you cannot deny the views and the location if you want a deep water lakefront. It is a little further from the ski slopes but owners pay a premium to be on the west end of the lake because of the depth of the water. I grade this buy an A.
41368 Condor, Big Bear Lake, CA 92315
This home was never in our MLS but was listed by owner for about 3 months. It was custom built in 2006 with 3 bedrooms, 3 baths, and approximately 3329 square feet just outside the Eagle Point Estates area. It sits on an 11,000 square foot lot but there is only approximately 20 feet of lake frontage. The owner was asking $1,800,000 and it sold on 07/10/2008 for $1,675,000.
My Opinion: Great newer construction in Eagle Point. Good location but not because of the depth of the water: Close to shopping, Snow Summit and Bear Mountain Ski Resorts, the local hospital, etc....but it is not a deep water location. I bring this up because our water levels vary from year to year depending on the precipitation we get. I've seen the lake down 18' at the dam in drought years and I've also seen the lake completely full (everything along the lake looks good when we have a full lake!). I don't doubt the quality of construction or the convenient access to everything "in town", but I question the price for a shallow water lakefront. I grade this buy a C-.
39569 Lake Drive, Big Bear Lake, CA 92315
This is a new construction overlooking Metcalf Bay in Big Bear Lake with 4 master suites, 6 bathrooms, and a media/office/exercise room. It features an open living area with cathedral ceilings, tall windows and doors, oak hardwood floors, lots of travertine, and limestone. The bottom floor has a huge family room with wet bar and wine cellar. Listed for $1,990,000 and sold on 9/25/2008 for $1,850,000. It was on the market for 390 days.
My Opinion: Nice newer construction overlooking Metcalf Bay and to the west. Great finishing touches with quality materials. I was a little disappointed with the layout. It's very up and down with a lot of steps and it felt like the builder kept adding square footage because they had it left over in the build-up area (the lot is sloped). From a replacement cost, I think the buyers did fairly well, but I thought they could've gotten a better price. The property was on the market for over a year and it is borderline busy in this area because you are on the cusp of seeing all the boating traffic coming in and out of Holloway's Landing and Pleasure Point Marina. I would grade this buy a B-.
392 Gibralter, Big Bear Lake, CA 92315
Refurbished 3 bedroom (or 2 plus huge game room with wet bar), 2 1/2 bath lakefront home had new paint inside and out, new flooring, a dock slip, and a 2 car garage. Built in 1981, this conventional floorplan covers 1560 square feet and sat on a 8525 square foot lot. Expansive lake views and centrally located. Listed for $875,000 and sold on 7/14/2008 for $850,000. It was on the market for 3 days.
My Opinion: Decent location at a great price. This was not a deep water location, nor was it a very shallow water location. Nothing too flashy about the home but the buyer was a contractor and saw the potential in buying on the lake in the mid 800's and over time this property will appreciate because they bought on the lower end of lakefront prices and there's room for improvements. I would grade this buy a B+.
The Current Lake Level from the Municipal Water District as of Monday September 29, 2008 is 66'3" measured at the dam (6'1" below full). Last quarterly update the lake level was 4'8" below full.
These numbers were pulled from the Big Bear Association of Realtors MLS on 10/1/2008. All information herein is deemed reliable, but is not guaranteed.
Originally posted at www.bigbearlakefrontinfo.com
First Annual Big Bear Marathon September 06

The first-ever event of its kind in the Big Bear Valley, perfect for the outdoor enthusiast and athlete who seeks high altitude training. The course is truly one of the most scenic courses you will ever run. Starting and finishing in Big Bear's downtown village, the course runs around Big Bear Lake clockwise towards the golf course. With slight rolling hills, this is actually a relatively flat course, however it is at a higher altitude. Elevation ranges from 6,750 feet (the elevation of Big Bear Lake) to around 6,900 feet. Click here for a course map.
General Information & Fees:
| Event | Regular Fee | Late Fee* |
|---|---|---|
| Marathon | $80 | +$10 |
| ½ Marathon | $45 | +$10 |
| Bike Tour | $45 | +$10 |
| 5K Run | $25 | +$5 |
| Kids 1k Run | $20 | none |
Big Bear Lake International Film Festival September 11-14

| DATE | TICKET SALES & EVENTS 2008 | COST |
|---|---|---|
| September 12-14 |
All Event Weekend Pass - unlimited films & all events Includes Opening Night Gala and Wrap Party as well as all seminars and panels. PLEASE NOTE: Does NOT Include Sunday's Pitchfest! |
$75.00 |
| September 12-13 | Weekend Movie Pass - unlimited films both Friday and Saturday Also includes panels and seminars both days. |
$25.00 |
| September 12-13 | Individual Day Movie Pass - All-Day Friday or All-Day Saturday Also includes panels and seminars for that day. |
$15.00 |
| September 12 | 6:00 pm - 10:00 pm - Opening Night Gala Cocktail Reception, Presentation of Honorary Lifetime Achievement Award & Premiere Film. Location: Performing Arts Center (Business Attire) |
$25.00 |
| September 13 | 6:00 pm - 10:00 pm "Full Flavored" Wrap Party & Awards Ceremony Networking reception with food, drinks, presentation of Acting Award of Excellence and Filmmaker & Screenwriting Competition Awards Ceremony Location: Performing Arts Center (Casual Attire) |
$35.00 |
| September 12-13 | General Film Screenings Admission - purchased at the door the day of screening |
$5.00 |
| September 14 |
9:00 - 1:00 pm Pitchfest One-on-One 5 Minute Meetings with Industry Professionals |
$50.00 |
38th Annual Big Bear Lake Oktoberfest! September 13-
38th Annual Big Bear Lake Oktoberfest Schedule of Events
(Updated July 24, 2008. Schedule is subject to change)
Ongoing events taking place each weekend include:
* Log Sawing & Stein Holding Contests - held several times throughout the day both Saturdays and Sundays.
* The Safe Slam Beer Drinking contest is held every Saturday evening after 8:00 p.m.
* Children's contests held Sundays at approximately 3:00 p.m.
* Outside Budenstrasse (Game Booths, Exhibitors, Petting Zoo) is open Saturdays from 12:00 Noon to 8:00 p.m. and Sundays from 12:00 Noon - 5:00 p.m.
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9th Annual Big Bear Cowboy Gathering September 19
Now you folks can start off your weekend with our
THURSDAY NIGHT.... Fundraising "River Boat Dinner Cruise" with breathtaking views as far as the eye can see of our mountain ranges and lake...this is one boat you won't want to miss. There will be great down home food, libations, gambling, prizes, entertainment and more....
FRIDAY NIGHT... giddy up on over to the PAC (Performing Arts Center) for Poetry and Music you won't forget. All from well known and loved artist‘s. Wander around and check out the vendors before and during intermission have some libations and laughs.
Don't tucker out yet........
SATURDAY AFTERNOON is full of rough riders our own mounted Posse will be there keeping our gun slinging Wild West Reenactors in line. There will be a Western horse drawn stagecoach you can ride on. Proprietors of fine mercantile will be here so you can put a few trinkets in your poke. There will be a harmonica workshop for all you dusty trail riders so you'll be able to amaze your friends with your musical talent at your next cowboy campfire. Also a cowboy magician to bamboozle the little buckaroos. A singing guitarist will be wandering the forest for your pleasure. Great food will be provided by our own local Jasper's BBQ restaurant. Libations will be flowing like a creek after the spring thaw. Center stage will muster up entertainment through out the day. And if that's not enough for y'all......
SATURDAY NIGHT....We have the one the only legendary RED STEAGALL to be performing at the PAC (one night only) The famous Artist for this years poster JACK TERRY will be available to sign his artwork and books. Vendors will be there before and after the shows. Libations and snacks will be available too. Don't miss RED STEAGALL'S Big Bear performance...his words are sure to leave you pondering.
SUNDAY ... The gathering will be hosting a non denominational Cowboy Church service. Music and Poetry and some inspiring words will leave your hearts a little lighter. This is a special event not to be missed. Get up early cuz before church y'all are invited to have some morning grub (breakfast) with some of the amazing performers and the cowboy gathering committee members. Then you can stroll around and check out the vendors goods.
Hot Dawgz and Handrails September 20
Valley snowboarders have a reason to celebrate months before the snow starts falling in Big Bear. The fifth annual Hot Dawgz and Handrails snowboarding extravaganza is set for Sept. 20 at Bear Mountain.
There will be more than $15,000 available in cash prizes, including a $1,000 best trick prize. Movies debuting at the event include Bear Mountain's "Walk in The Park," and Mad Dawg Production's "Double Decade." The competitions begin at 2 p.m.
1st Lt. Jared M. Landaker Memorial Run for Freedom September 27
5K and 10K Race at Snow Summit honoring Jared Landaker. Jared was a pilot of a CH-46 medevac helicopter serving in the Global War on Terrorism in Iraq. His helicopter was shot down by a ground to air missile killing all 7 on board. This race is to remember those heroes that lost their lives on February 7, 2007. Freedom is not free. For more information please contact Mark Clifton at The Seven Stars Foundation at (530)559-4845 or www.sevenstarsfoundation.com
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