Ok you read it here first. This "economic melt down" or recession will end when the the US housing market bottoms out. Actually when you think about it it's pretty simple. The economic boom of the past 7 or 8 years was driven in large part by US households who accounted for most of the spending growth. As real estate prices were driven up, households had more room to borrow on equity which further drove spending. The house of cards began to fall when dodgy borrowers began to default in ever increasing numbers. This brought on the subprime mess. So now a large number of US household are "upside down" in terms of home equity. They owe more than there homes are worth. The result is: no more spending power and a drastic decline in economic activity. It stands to reason that the way out of this mess will only begin take shape when this massive amount of bad debt is "unwound" . The banks will have to feel the pain of it. The government can't keep postponing that pain. Once that is done there will be some sort of signal such as a decline in foreclosures for 3 straight months. When you read about this or some similar article you'll know that there is light at the end of the tunnel. And you read it here first.
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