Interest rates nudged up a bit this week but remained near record lows. The following are some excerpts from this week's newsletter on interest rates from HSH Associates :
"In a week where a "landmark" forclosure-abuse lawsuit finally came to a close, mortgage rates held close to record low levels. One happenstance is good for potential homebuyers, the other not so much. Inasmuch as $25 billion in penalties for perceived wrongdoing must be paid, and the money ultimately must come from somewhere, we can only be left to conclude that the cost of mortgages will eventually be higher than it would be absent the settlement.
And what of the foreclosure and loan servicing "abuse" settlement, which ran longer than a year, with tens or possibly even hundreds of millions in legal costs? Well, homeowners who weren't directly subject to any kind of foreclosure abuse might be able to get as much as $20,000 chopped off their loan balance, if they are in trouble or in danger of becoming so and if their loan is not a GSE (FNMA or Freddie Mac owned loan ) or FHA-backed model. That's expected to eat up maybe $17-$20 billion of the settlement, while another three to $5B is expected to be distributed in the form of checks to up to perhaps 750,000 folks who lost their homes to foreclosure between 2008 and 2011. Other funds will provide some refinance opportunities for certain borrowers, and most of the rest will go to states for foreclosure prevention programs and such.

Where are the borrowers who were making payments per the terms of their contracts whose homes were taken from them? If they exist, what is $2,000 to them? Conversely, why should a borrower who lost their home to foreclosure for failing to make payments (sometimes for years) be eligible for compensation at all? Does the fact that a human did or did not fully review the paperwork during the foreclosure process change that simple fact? It does not.
Principal reductions are all well and good, but they are being offered to folks who haven't been "abused" by the system per se, but are as much victims of the downturn as anyone else who owns a home. That said, if the house is underwater by perhaps $50,000 (a working figure, according to CoreLogic), the homeowner will remain underwater for many years yet to come. Although it does move the needle closer to zero for some, it fails to solve the problem. Also, if the loan isn't re-amortized after the principal reduction (that is, if the $20,000 is simply treated as a one-time prepayment), there will be zero effect on the borrower's monthly payment, which is stipulated in the loan contract. Rather, the value will come in total interest savings from shortening the loan term. That's great, but is not immediate relief of any sort. It would, however, change the mix of principal and interest due in a borrower's payment, moving them toward solvency at a slightly accelerated pace.
For reasons hard to discern, we seem more intent upon trying to penalize the issues of the past than trying to solve the issues of today. We'd argue that the $25 billion (or more) would better have been used to help promote homebuying. Given how many properties are now going to be dumped into the market as the foreclosure disposition process comes back up to speed, fueling homebuying by whatever means possible should be a priority. Twenty-five billion would cover a lot of GSE-required MI premiums, pay for a pile of crisis-created GSE loan-level pricing adjustments, paid for some of the FHA insurance premium for first-time homebuyers or other ideas.
As we move slowly away from the crash of the housing market, it's of course natural to want vengeance for wrongdoing and to lash out at whatever the closest party might be. "Victims" of virtually every sort can be found if one looks hard enough, but untangling the thorny mess which produced the market collapse to find a responsible party who can be forced to pay damages is harder. It took decades of good intentions (and perhaps some bad ones) to build the mess we have today, and the parties involved range from regulators and politicians at the top to people flipping homes for profit at the bottom and everything in between. Good or bad, the settlement is done. More lawsuits are likely to follow, with mortgage-backed securities up next. More costs to be passed along, more effort expended addressing yesterday's problems, and less on today's troubles.
Mortgage rates are holding pretty steady at very favorable levels. A larger batch of economic data is due next week, including the latest from the National Association of Homebuilders and data on housing starts. The new home market has been showing some signs of enthusiasm over the last couple of months, and it seems likely that this gradual improvement will continue. Minutes from the last Federal Reserve meeting are also due and should prove interesting, given the new communications and policy direction they started last month. There will be inflation news, retail sales for January and more.
We thought rates would tick a little higher this week and they did. That might again be the case next week, just enough to again keep us a whisker or two above record lows.
The following are interest rate quotes from Al Hermann of American California Financial :
|
30 Yr Fixed FHA |
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Rate |
APR |
|
||||
|
3.600 |
4.280 |
|
Conforming 30 Yr Fixed up to $417000 |
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|
Rate |
APR |
|
||||
|
3.750 |
3.895 |
|
Conforming Jumbo 30 Yr Fixed $417001 - $625500 |
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|
Rate |
APR |
|
||||
|
3.875 |
4.014 |
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Jumbo 30 Yr. to $1.5 Mil |
||||||
|
Rate |
APR |
|
||||
|
4.625 |
4.761 |
|
Jumbo 7/1 ARM $1.5 Mil (higher loan amt available) |
||||||
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Rate |
APR |
|
||||
|
3.375 |
3.458 |
The following are interest rate quotes from Jan Schott Bank of America, Home Loans jan.schott@bankofamerica.com 310-802-2300 :
Conforming Loans to $417,000
5 Yr Fixed: 2.375% @ 1.000/pts 2.875% @ 0/pts
30 Yr Fixed: 3.875% @ 1.000/pts 4.375% @ 0/pts
Conforming High Balance to $625,500
5 Yr Fixed: 2.500% @ 1.000/pts 3.000% @ 0/pts*
30 Yr Fixed: 4.000% @ 1.000/pts 4.500% @ 0/pts
Non-Conforming Loans to $2,000,000
5 Yr Fixed: 2.625% @ 1.000/pts 3.000% @ 0/pts
30 Yr Fixed: 4.125% @ 1.000/pts 4.375% @ 0/pts
FHA Fixed Loans to $729,750
30 Yr Fixed: 3.750% @ 1.000/pts 4.125% @ 0/pts
Between the turn of the 20th century and WWII, the White Point area of San Pedro was home to a thriving Japanese community of abalone fisherman and farmers. In 1899, 12 Japanese fisherman leased beach front property at White Point from Ramon Sepulveda, a descendant ofJose Dolores Sepulveda, the original Spanish land grant owner of San Pedro, with the intention of establishing an abalone and lobster fishery at that location. By 1903, they had earned enough money to construct a cannery at the fishery. This profitable industry ended in 1908 when it was alleged that these settlers were using fishing as a front for spying on coastline activities. Laws restricting how much shellfish could be taken were also enacted when the lobster and abalone population was quickly depleted.

After the fishery closed, the area became a Japanese farming community and a resort locale. In 1915, Tojuro and Tamiji Tagami, with the help of Sepúlveda, developed the area as the White Point Health Resort, a sea side resort centered around a sulfur spring at the base of the cliffs. Tamiji suffered severely from arthritis but after several weeks of immersion in the hot water from the ocean, he recovered and was again able to work. So they built a bathhouse and then constructed the balance of the resort which consisted of a two story50 room hotel and restaurant with a dance floor, three salt water plunges, an enclosed boating area, a bathhouse, and a pier which ferried tourists to a nearby fishing barge . Local children often bathed in the sulfur water on their way home from school. Doctor would send patients to the resort for the therapeutic powers of the hot springs, and tourists would stay there for the beauty of the weather and location.

Diver at White Point Resort
Various disasters in 1928 and the late '30s, led to the decline and eventual closure of the property when storms damaged the pools and some of the buildings. In 1933, an earthquake sealed off the sulfur springs.Although the Tagamis continued to operate the hotel, they never actually owned the land. Ramon Sepulveda could not legally sell the land to Asian immigrants under a California law which prohibited ownership of land by those not eligible to become citizens. Although the hotel continued to operate despite these set-backs, the final blow came in the late 1930’s with the rise of anti-Japanese prejudice and depressed economic conditions forced the closure of the resort.
After the start of World War II, The federal government took over the area, becoming part of the nearby Fort MacArthur military complex. The resort's buildings were demolished, and fortifications were added to the shoreline and nearby hillside.
The state of California bought the beach area in 1960, and it became Royal Palms State Beach. In 1995, the land was acquired by the county of Los Angeles and became Royal Palms County Beach.
White Point Health Resort - Circa 1920's
The Silver Spur area of Rancho Palos Verdes and Rolling Hills Estates (Area 176 in map below) had the following real estate market activity for single family residences during the 4th Quarter of 2011 :
Properties Sold: 13
Address Sales Price BR BA Sq.ft. $/Sq.ft Yr.Blt. MLS# Sold Date Days on Mkt.
26453 Basswood AV $680,000 3 2.00 1,753 $387.91 1956 S10113690 10/19/11 71
5940 Finecrest DR $700,098 4 3.00 2,270 $308.41 1959 V11087256 11/18/11 82
27051 Springcreek RD $721,960 3 2.00 1,780 $405.60 1960 V11102759 12/16/11 124
5547 Bayridge RD $730,000 3 2.00 1,321 $552.61 1956 P802819 12/30/11 7
27161 Fond Du Lac RD $750,000 4 2.00 1,890 $396.83 1958 S673218 10/21/11 3
5302 Littlebow RD $765,000 4 2.00 2,340 $326.92 1957 P789544 11/28/11 100
5507 Bayridge RD $782,000 3 2.00 1,773 $441.06 1956 V11076837 10/27/11 133
26332 Grayslake RD $785,000 4 2.00 1,890 $415.34 1961 S11114085 10/21/11 14
26916 Springcreek RD $825,000 3 2.00 1,642 $502.44 1960 V11153114 12/30/11 18
11 Via De La Vista $830,000 4 2.00 2,339 $354.85 1965 S11096590 10/11/11 14
26644 Shadow Wood DR $870,000 4 3.00 1,917 $453.83 1961 P796824 11/04/11 6
5951 Flambeau Road $870,000 5 2.00 2,190 $397.26 1959 V11099943 11/16/11 109
27100 Mesaba DR $902,000 4 3.00 2,245 $401.78 1958 V11110300 11/09/11 26
Average Sales Price of homes sold during 4th quarter: $ .8 million

Properties for Sale as of 12/31/11: 11 
Average List Price at 12/31/11: $ .9 million
Average Price per Sq. Ft. for Properties Sold during 4th Qtr: $ 411 per sq. ft.

Properties sold at an average of 98% of List Price

The Eastview area of Rancho Palos Verdes ( area 177 in map below) had the following real estate market activity for single family residences during the 4th Quarter of 2011 :
Properties Sold: 18
Address Sales Price BR BA Sq.ft. $/Sq.ft Yr.Blt. MLS# Sold Date Days on Mkt.
1839 Jaybrook DR $407,500 2 1.00 853 $477.73 1950 11556983 12/16/11 33
2034 Jaybrook DR $520,000 2 2.00 1,100 $472.73 1950 P797983 11/16/11 50
2036 W Macarthur ST $530,000 4 2.00 1,629 $325.35 1955 S11067145 11/18/11 113
27630 Tarrasa DR $569,000 4 3.00 1,902 $299.16 1960 V11070978 11/18/11 164
2079 Noble View DR $590,000 3 2.00 1,719 $343.22 1957 S11129469 12/14/11 92
1921 Summerland ST $610,000 3 3.00 2,064 $295.54 1955 S11103210 12/09/11 110
1966 W General ST $620,000 4 2.00 1,781 $348.12 1955 S11135149 11/22/11 28
27905 Pontevedra DR $654,000 4 2.00 2,136 $306.18 1959 S10083217 10/13/11 250
28614 Mount Sawtooth DR $670,000 4 3.00 2,460 $272.36 1973 S11103172 12/30/11 105
1465 W Toscanini DR $675,000 4 2.00 2,100 $321.43 1974 S11042705 11/09/11 166
29004 S Bayend DR $685,000 4 3.00 2,376 $288.30 1987 V11104151 11/08/11 76
28621 Mount Hood CT $700,000 3 3.00 1,768 $395.93 1974 V11109007 12/02/11 93
1815 W Toscanini DR $710,000 3 3.00 2,029 $349.93 1962 V11062959 12/28/11 208
2042 Crestwood ST $715,000 4 2.00 2,015 $354.84 1956 V11122603 12/02/11 75
2062 Upland ST $725,000 3 2.00 1,716 $422.49 1957 V11099311 10/01/11 33
27904 Alaflora DR $735,000 4 2.00 1,746 $420.96 1959 S11109970 10/20/11 64
27831 Pontevedra DR $737,500 4 2.00 1,746 $422.39 1959 V11089587 12/08/11 118
27636 Tarrasa DR $740,000 3 3.00 1,900 $389.47 1960 V11065503 10/01/11 131
Average Sales Price of homes sold during 4th quarter: $ .6 million

Properties for Sale as of 12/31/11: 13

Average List Price at 12/31/11: $ .6 million
Average Price per Sq. Ft. for Properties Sold during 4th Qtr: $ 361 per sq. ft.

Properties sold at an average of 98% of List Price
The Peninsula Center area of Rancho Palos Verdes and Rolling Hills Estates (Area 175 in map below) had the following real estate market activity during the 4th Quarter of 2011 :
Properties Sold: 2
Address Sales Price BR BA Sq.ft. $/Sq.ft Yr.Blt. MLS# Sold Date Days on Mkt.
27509 Elmbridge DR $930,000 4 2.00 2,165 $429.56 1965 V11030733 10/14/11 210
27926 Longhill DR $1,100,000 5 3.00 2,494 $441.06 1967 V11071606 10/13/11 107
Average Sales Price of homes sold during 4th quarter: $ 1.0 million
The Peninsula Center area had low sales activity during the 4th quarter primarily due to a large decrease in the number of listings, with only 2-4 properties in this area listed for sale during the quarter.

Properties for Sale as of 12/31/11: 4

Average List Price at 12/31/11: $ .9 million
Average Price per Sq. Ft. for Properties Sold during 4th Qtr: $ 435 per sq. ft.

Properties sold at an average of 95% of List Price
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