Only time will tell. But if there is a recession how will it affect the San Francisco Real Estate market? Well since I can't find my crystal ball (kids must have taken it) I decided to pull statistics from the San Francisco MLS. According to yesterday's San Francisco Chronicle our last recession was in 2001. So I decided to go back and pull the median prices from the year prior to the recession through the end of last year. While this is not foolproof, because we have so many micro-markets in this city and the fact that the median price is manipulated by the composition of what is being sold during that time, it is one of the tools often used to determine the relative health of the real estate market.
So with that said, here is the eight year trend of median sold prices and number of sold units for Single Family Homes and Condos/Lofts, all bedrooms.
2000 - SFH $526,000/3,104 units sold - Condos/Lofts $541,000/1782 units.
2001 - SFH $555,500/2,694 - Condos/Lofts $501,000/1,596
2002 - SFH $590,000/3,100 - Condos/Lofts $525,000/2,399
2003 - SFH $640,000/3,392 - Condos/Lofts $535,000/2,818
2004 - SFH $750,000/3,321 - Condos/Lofts $625,000/3,135
2005 - SFH $840,000/3,093 - Condos/Lofts $726,000/2,837
2006 - SFH $840,000/2,718 - Condos/Lofts $730,250/2,470
2007 - SFH $895,000/2,310 - Condos/Lofts $770,000/2,273
What I found interesting is that during this time period Single Family Homes did not see a decline in the median price. They actually experienced a relatively healthy growth rate every year except 2005 to 2006 where the median was flat. Condos/Lofts fell by about 7.4% during 2001 as compared to 2000. They experienced a little over 4% growth the year following the recesssion and by 2004 surpassed the 2000 median price by approximately 16%. So by the end of the third year after the recession Condos/Lofts had fully regained their 2000 value plus a considerable amount.
In addition those people who bought during the recession experienced the greatest amount of appreciation as compared to buying the year prior and year after. So while the housing slump, slowdown etc. continues so does the buyers market.
If there is a recession in 2008 will the real estate market react exactly the same way it did to the recession in 2001? Most likely not. The circumstances are much different now with the subprime debacle. But one fact does remain that we can all agree on, in the long run San Francisco Real Estate will prove to be a wise investment.
Michael Novia
South Beach Real Estate
415-637-2409 (24 hours)
According to MetroRent SoMa has the highest average "asking" rental prices for both one and two bed apartments in the city; 1 bed: $2,716, 2 bed: $4,300. Number two for 1 beds is Potrero Hill at $2,375 and number three is Upper Nob Hill at $2,350. For 2 beds Presidio Heights comes in at number two with $4,183 followed by number three the Marina at $3,800.
Now on with the story...
It's good news for landlords that mortgage applications fell to their lowest level in a year last month because people have to live somewhere and if they can't or won't buy, they'll have to rent.
Here are the nation's 10-most-expensive cities for renters and the average rents. The data is provided by Marcus & Millichap.
Source: Forbes, Matt Woolsey (01/07/08)
Construction at BLU (631 Folsom @ Second) is moving along nicely and appears to be on schedule for a summer 2008 move in.
As part of their offerings BLU will be selling 6 penthouse homes. All of the homes are on 3 levels and have 3 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms. Two of the floor plans also have family rooms. They range from approx. 2000-2700 sq ft. and each home will offer wonderful San Francisco views. You can enter the home on either the 20th floor where the bedrooms are located, or on the 21st floor where the main living area is located. Each penthouse has a 3rd level where homeowners will enjoy an outdoor deck and a glass enclosed solarium. All of these homes will be equipped with exceptional quality finishes. Preliminary pricing; from the high- 2 million to mid- 3 million dollar range.
BLU sales office is expected to be open sometime in March.
Michael Novia
South Beach Real Estate
415-637-2409 (24 hours)
Statistics now include Potrero Hill and the Central Waterfront and include only Condos and Lofts.
2006 vs. 2007
Mission Bay
Median Sold Price: $884,500 vs. $681,692
Number of units sold: 6 vs. 6
Days on Market: 39 vs. 43
The maximum sold price for December 2007 was $1,285,000 (one of ours at the Beacon) vs. $1,315,750 in 2006. The minimum sold price was $510,000 for 12/06 vs. $535,000 for 12/07 .
South Beach
Median Sold Price: $795,000 vs. $640,000
Number of units sold: 27 vs. 9
Days on Market: 48 vs. 54
The maximum sales price was $1,750,000 for December 2007 vs. $1,395,000 in 2006. The minimum sold price was $409,000 vs. $373,000 in 2006.
South Of Market
Median Sold Price: $648,900 vs. $586,000
Number of units sold: 26 vs. 16
Days on Market: 59 vs. 69
South of Market is home to some of the priciest real estate in the city and hit a high this December with $2,480,000 vs. $3,300,000 last December. The highest of the 5 neighborhoods profiled here and the second highest sold price city wide. 999 Green on Nob Hill has the highest sales price for the month with $2,720,000 ($460,500 over asking). The minimum sold price for 12/06 was $284,115 vs. $306,000 this December.
Potrero Hill
Median Sold Price: $709,000 vs. $775,000
Number of units sold: 6 vs. 7
Days on Market: 52 vs. 40
Potrero Hill the only neighborhood profiled here that saw an increase in volume (+1) from last December also saw an increase in the maximum sales price from $850,000 last December to $1,425,000 this year. The minimum sold price this December was $430,000 vs. $286,150 last December.
Central Waterfront
Median Sold Price: $732,000 vs. $725,000
Number of units sold: 3 vs. 1
Days on Market: 67 vs. 110
The emerging Central Waterfront saw only one sale this December compared with three last December.
SoMa Combined ( All 5 neighborhoods)
Median Sold Price: $741,000 vs. $639,000
Number of units sold: 65 vs. 39
Days on Market: 52 vs. 57
City wide total volume for condo sales was 117 units with a mediam price of $740,000 vs. 210 units with a median sales price of $749,000 last December. The 5 neighborhoods profiled here accounted for just over 35% of the total sales volume. Add all of the non reported sales in the new developments and I would not be at all surprised if we accounted for over 50% of the total sales volume for the city.
City wide the total sales volume for condos were at it's lowest point since December 2000 when 111 units were sold with a median price of $549,000.
Michael Novia
South Beach Real Estate
415-637-2409 (24 hours)
I have extensive knowledge of the SoMa Real Estate Market. Please visit my website for more info.
Mission Statement
To provide accurate information and negotiate the best possible price for my clients.
Memberships
San Francisco Planning and Urban Research Association, San Francisco Association of Realtors, California Association of Realtors, National Association of Realtors.
My Practice
My experience has been primarily working with buyers and sellers who have an interest in condos, lofts and single family homes throughout the city.
I enjoy providing first time home buyers with the extra attention they need as well as marketing homes for sale.
I have extensive knowledge of the SoMa Real Estate Market. I publish information about market conditions, inventory, new developments and redevelopment areas on a daily basis. I have experience working on and selling homes in new developments (my wife currently sells new developments as well). I have been a guest on a local radio show, have been interviewed by SF weekly, have given the SF Chronicle information and am a source of information to other REALTORS.
My clients have a diverse background including artists, financial advisers, professors, techies, etc.
My association with South Beach Real Estate allows me to provide my clients with exceptional service through a state of the art office in a convenient South Beach location.
If you are looking for a REALTOR and not just a sales person to help you with your transaction, I am the best person for the job. Please call/text me at 415-637-2409 (24 hours a day). I look forward to meeting you.
Are you interested in buying a home in San Francisco? Are you unsure of the process and costs involved? Attend a South Beach Real Estate Home Buyer's Seminar with REALTOR® Michael Novia and you will learn about these details and more:
The real costs involved including mortgage, title, and inspections.
Buying in a new development - what you can ask for to save money and who is currently offering the best deals.
How to make an offer and at what price.
What's important for the resale value of your home.
Covenants Conditions and Restrictions.
The Purchase Contract.
What a contingency is and why it's very important to you.
Your 3% deposit and liquidated damages.
Mediation and Arbitration.
Views and outlooks, are they guaranteed?
Square Footage estimates and their accuracy.
Neighborhood characteristics.
Lofts vs. Condos.
Tax savings and adjusting your paycheck.
Setting goals and expectations.
To schedule your appointment call 415-637-2409 (24 hours) or email. Appointments are available on Sunday morning, and Tuesday and Wednesday evenings. First come, first serve.
"We have known Wendy and Mike for many years now, and it 's been a true pleasure working with them. Their honesty, integrity and efficiency are truly exceptional, and very hard to find in the real estate world. We purchased a home few years ago, thanks to Wendy, and we are now working together again to find another one. It has been a continuing pleasant experience for us. We consider them friends that we can trust completely".
anto
Antonello B., M.D.
Associate Professor
Ernest Gallo Clinic and Research Center
And Department of Neurology
University of California, San Francisco.
"Buying and selling a home in the Bay Area can be a daunting and overwhelming process. But Wendy and Michael Novia's professional and expert advice allowed for a problem free transaction. Most importantly they made certain that I received the maximum value for my property. I was so pleased with their service that I have used the multiple times".
John P.
SF Radio
A big thank you to you and Wendy!!! You did a really great job. If we hear of anyone who is buying or selling in SF, we will send them to you.
Maryanne & Ada
"As a first time buyer new to the process, one of the main criteria I had in looking for a real estate agent was attentiveness. Michael definitely lived up to that impression as he was always reachable and quick to respond to emails.
In this market, watching the best properties taken off the market within days of listing, it was important to me to have someone who wouldn´t be late to the game. Michael definitely stayed on top of things.
In addition, I found his website and blog to be pretty informative and frequently updated.
Michael always has time for you; his strengths lie in that he treats all matters with a sense of urgency. Thank you Michael."
M.F.C.
Barclays Global Investors
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