Matthew Ricker

In the last few years, we have seen and heard a lot about the Lents Neighborhood in Portland, OR. Most of that attention has been due to the Urban Renewal and Max projects that have occurred. According to the PDC, or Portland Development Commission, one of the goals of the development in Lent's is to revitalize the area and make it an important town center within the Portland Metro area. The latest talk of development in the area relates to the arrival, maybe, of a Major League Soccer franchise in Portland.

Portland currently is the home of the Portland Timbers, a USL division franchise that plays down at PGE park. USL is the United Soccer League, and is one step below the MLS level in regards to prestige and ability. The teams owner is attempting to bring an MLS franchise to Portland, which would require a new soccer-specific stadium at the location of PGE park. The question is, where do the Portland Beavers end up playing?

Merritt Paulson, the owner of both the Timbers and the Beavers, is looking to build a smaller, more intimate baseball stadium in the Lents neighborhood. The idea is that it has access to public transportation, highways, and the price is right. If you look quickly at the Real Estate Market in Lents you see a slight increase in the median pricing of homes over the last year. Pulling numbers from RMLS I found over 1500 units listed in the immediate area within the last year and over 600 units sold. The average sold price in September 2007 was roughly $246,000, and in mid-September 2008 it is near $260,000. The number of units sold per month varied from 32-70, with the majority of months seeing sales of 50 or more homes. The average days on the market for these homes was just under 2 months.

Has the Urban Renewal project made a difference? I would say that the sales look consistent if not slightly positive. The area looks nicer than it used to, and I have more and more clients that are looking for homes in the Lents neighborhood. Prices are still affordable, and the feeling is that positive change is coming to the area. Some people believe that the influx of the Beavers will tip the scales in bringing more restaurant and retail business to the area... and more money.

The jury is still out in Portland, but my question is for those of you that have seen a new and/or revitalized pro franchise enter your community recently. This could include a new or refurbished arena. Have you noticed new interest in the community? Have you noticed new investment? Importantly, what has it done to that local community as far as home prices are concerned?

May stats were really interesting indeed, and were an anomaly to the overall energy in the market. People are feeling good, but the numbers didn't reflect that feeling. Last RMLS report we had an inventory of 9.1 months, and we jumped in May to 10.3 months. This is a significant jump, and means that at the current rate of sales it would take 10.3 months to sell out of the homes on the market. The interesting fact is that pending sales grew almost 7% in the last month, according to RMLS. However, closed sales dropped almost 6.5% and we had an increase of new listings. I see some positives in these numbers, however. The increase in pending sales should mean a higher percentage of closed sales next month. Additionally, the increased number of listings means that sellers are not as afraid of the market as they once were. Many sellers have been holding off on selling their homes because they don't think the buyers are there, but the fact that we have more sellers coming into the market suggests that this feeling is dissipating.

Another positive stat is that the year-to-date number of days on the market is at 83 and last month's average number of days on the market was 74. One interesting anomaly is that the average sales price in the Portland area has dropped 3.9%. However, we are still seeing home prices increasing in the N, NE, SE, West Portland and Lake Oswego. The culprit of this statistic is the drop in the number of homes sold over 1 million dollars. In this high-end market, we are seeing prices down 31% from last year! Again, this is all a case by case, neighborhood by neighborhood basis. The bottom line is that we are still one of the top markets in the country, and a well-maintained home at the right price will attract offers. Have a great month!

The daffodils are starting to bloom and so are the stats. According to RMLS the month of February was promising for Sellers, and still great for buyers. Inventory is at 10.4 months, 2.4 months lower than our record high of 12.8 in January. This means at the current rate of sales it would take 10.4 months to sell out of our inventory. Homes are still moving much slower than they did last year at this time, but the optimism in the air is refreshing.

The fact that closed sales are up over 25% and that pending sales are up almost 10% suggests that the trend will continue through March. This is a good sign that buyers are starting to come out again to take advantage of good rates and a lot of housing choices.

Again, we are seeing an appreciation in housing prices throughout the city with NE, SE and N Portland still increasing at rates above 6%. Lake Oswego and West Linn have seen the most appreciation YTD with an increase of over 8% in home prices. The average sales price in the city YTD is $344,700 according to RMLS and the median sales price is $290,000, and the average days on the market for a home is 84 days.

In review, we have inventory decreasing with an increase of closed and pending sales from last month, a steady increase in appreciation, and a continual increase in the average and median sales prices. All of this information should be good for sellers. The fact is that inventory is still high, so sellers must price their home well and make it look great compared to the competition. Let's not forget that it still is a buyers market. Change is on the horizon, probably with a few bumps along the way.

RMLS posted its newest stats on Friday and they were definitely different from the rest of the Fall and Winter. We tend to see a natural slowing of the market because of the Winter and the Holidays, but we have seen a significant drop off in the market in the month of January. RMLS reported an inventory of 12.8 months, as opposed to 8.3 last month. This is the highest inventory since 2000. At the current rate of sales it would take 12.8 months to sell out of the inventory on the market. Average days on the market have also risen to 83 as opposed to 58 from last month, and we now have over 13,000 homes on the market.

A positve point for sellers is that Year-To-Date appreciation is still up in many areas of the city including North Portland (8.3%), Northeast Portland (7.3%), Southeast Portland (6.7%), and West Portland (4.6%).

It is normal for more listings to come on the market each January and there is always a bump in inventory in the first few months of the year. This is a much higher bump than normal, but I still believe that the market will pick up as the Spring and Summer get closer. Interest rates are too good for buyers and investors to just sit and wait, and I can't believe that they will. To research home values in your market look at www.portland-listings.com

One of the things to note is that many people speak about the market being slow, but that doesn't mean it is bad. It just means that inventory is not moving as quickly at the moment. It is fantastic buyer's market here in Portland with great prices, a lot to choose from, and great interest rates. It is all in how you look at it.

Things are looking up my friends, at least for buyers. If you looked at a newspaper this month you know that the Federal Reserve has made some cuts in the prime rate, looking to jump-start the economy and avoid a recession. What does this mean for you? It simply means that interest rates have dropped a bit and your money can go a bit further in the market. It adds to the already great opportunity that we have right now in the market for buyers. Inventory is higher than it has been at anytime in the last three years, so there is plenty out there to choose from.

How can inventory get any higher you ask? Well, at the moment it is at 8.5 months according to the RMLS. That means that it would take 8.5 months to sell all of listings at the current rate of sales. This is a little bit higher than last month (8.3). Days on the market was at 73 days, 15 days above the yearly average of 58. The holidays are over and Sellers have put a few more houses on the market, and it seems that buyers are still waiting to see how things settle out. Things will naturally speed up as the Spring arrives, and there should be a steady drop in inventory over the next few months as more and more buyers come into the market with the new interest rates.

We will see how the overall economy impacts the Real Estate Market in Portland. A lot of noise has been made nationally regarding the economy, but Portland has still had an annual appreciation in housing prices at 6.3% throughout the city.

People still have to live somewhere, and people will always buy and sell homes. Things are pretty much the same as they have been much of the late Fall and Winter. Buyers have it good, and sellers have to make sure that their homes are priced right and are in good condition.