Mortgage bond prices rose last week applying downward pressure on mortgage interest rates. Rates found support from falling stock prices. The Dow Jones index fell into the 6,000 range early in the week and was unable to recover. The employment report released last Friday indicated continued weakness in the labor market with the US economy losing 651,000 jobs in February. For the week, interest rates on government and conventional loans fell by about 5/8's of a discount point. The Treasury auctions will take center stage this week as debt supply concerns continue. Most of the other releases are expected to be weaker and, any surprises to the contrary, will likely result in mortgage interest rate volatility. LOOKING AHEAD
|
Economic |
Release |
Consensus |
|
| 3-year Treasury Note Auction |
Tuesday March 10, |
None | Important. Notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
| 10-year Treasury Note Auction |
Wednesday, March 11, |
None | Important. Notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
| Retail Sales |
Thursday, March 12, |
Down 0.4% | Important. A measure of consumer demand. A larger decrease may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
| Business Inventories |
Thursday, March 12, |
Down 1.1% | Low importance. An indication of stored-up capacity. An increase may lead to lower rates. |
| 30-year Treasury Bond Auction |
Thursday, March 12, |
None | Important. Bonds will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
| Trade Data |
Friday, March 13, |
$38.2 billion deficit | Important. Affects the value of the dollar. A falling deficit may strengthen the dollar and lead to lower rates. |
| U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment |
Friday, March 13, |
56.3 | Important. An indication of consumers' willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
Retail Sales Retail sales data is the first indication of weakness or strength in consumer spending released each month. The Bureau of the Census of the US Department of Commerce provides information on how much the consumer spends on the purchase of goods. This data provides the consumption part of the gross domestic product. Retail sales data represents merchandise sold for cash or credit by retailers. Durable goods, such as autos, make up 35% of the figure. The balance consists of non-durables such as gasoline, restaurants, and general merchandise. There are several drawbacks to the report. The data covers purchases of goods only, not services. It is also not adjusted for inflation and is extremely volatile. Economists are concerned that the current economic uncertainty will continue to curtail consumer-spending habits. Consumers have generally been given credit for sustaining the economy even amid the economic turmoil. The data will be a vital component in determining just how bad things really are. Be cautious. Mortgage interest rates rallied nicely last week and continued improvements are not a given. Take advantage of favorable movements when they come your way.
For more new and information visit us at www.ToMortgageServices.com or call (800) 922-3210.
Mortgage bond prices fell last week pushing mortgage interest rates higher. A Freddie Mac report of increased defaults sent bond prices crashing and interest rates higher mid-week. The Treasury auctions generally showed mediocre foreign demand and the overall additional debt supply also pressured mortgage bond prices lower. Most of the data continued to show economic weakness but there was a slight up tick in the consumer sentiment number that was not bond-friendly. For the week, interest rates on government and conventional loans rose by about 1/2 to 5/8 of a discount point. The employment report Friday will be the most important data this week.. Analysts are expecting the worst from most of the data. Any surprises in the data showing the beginning of economic recovery will likely result in mortgage interest rate volatility. LOOKING AHEAD
|
Economic |
Release |
Consensus |
|
| Personal Income and Outlays |
Monday, March 2, |
Income down 0.3%, Outlays up 0.3% |
Important. A measure of consumers' ability to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
| Construction Spending |
Monday, March 2, |
Down 1.5% |
Low importance. An indication of economic strength. A significant decrease may lead to lower rates. |
| ISM Index |
Monday, March 2, |
34.0 |
Important. A measure of manufacturer sentiment. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
| ADP Employment |
Wednesday, March 4, |
Down 600k | Important. A large decrease in payrolls may bring lower rates. |
| Fed "Beige Book" |
Wednesday, March 4, |
None |
Important. This Fed report details current economic conditions across the US. Signs of weakness may lead to lower rates. |
| Revised Q4 Productivity |
Thursday, March 5, |
Up 1.6% |
Important. A measure of output per hour. Improvement may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
| Factory Orders |
Thursday, March 5, |
Down 2.1% | Important. A measure of manufacturing sector strength. A larger decrease may lead to lower rates. |
| Employment |
Friday, March 6, |
Down 7.9%, |
Very important. An increase in unemployment or a large decrease in payrolls may bring lower rates. |
Why Data is Important
One of the easiest and most important things to do when making a decision whether to float or lock a loan is knowing what data is going to be released. Economic releases are important because they provide a snapshot of a portion of the economy. Data is even more important in that it is often the cause of market volatility. Upcoming data events are readily available and there is no excuse not knowing what data will be released in the week ahead. While an in depth understanding of an economic event can help a person make informed decisions, it is more important to have a rudimentary understanding of when an important piece of data will be released and what basic effect that data can have on the market. Understanding the nuances of a release does very little for a person if they are blindsided by not knowing when the release will occur. Accurately predicting how each and every release will come in is impossible. Floating into important economic data can be very risky and can expose a person to huge market swings. Keep that in mind this week, as there is an abundance of significant data heading our way. For more information and news regarding purchasing and refinancing a home visit www.ToMortgageServices.com
Many prospective homeowners looking to obtain mortgage financing have never had credit or need to repair a poor credit history may not qualify for a regular unsecured credit card. For them, a secured credit card may be the only way to establish, or re-establish, credit in order to qualify for a new mortgage loan.
If you're thinking about purchasing a home and have no credit or poor credit, here are the answers to frequently asked questions about secured credit cards.
Who Needs to Build Credit?
Anybody without a history of using credit needs to build credit. You never know when the need for a loan will arise, and it is a lot easier to get a loan with a solid credit history. Many who are just starting to learn about financial responsibilities need to build credit, and recent immigrants to the U.S. also find themselves without a credit history.
What is a secured credit card?
A secured card requires a cash collateral deposit that becomes the credit line for that account. For example, if you put $500 in the account; you can charge up to $500. You may be able to add to the deposit to add more credit, or sometimes a bank will reward you for good payment and add to your credit line without requesting additional deposits.
Where can I get a secured credit card?
Check Mortgage Services list of secured credit card issuers. If you're a credit union member, ask about a secured card there. About half of the nation's credit unions offer secured cards to their members and may offer lower interest rates and waive annual fees.
What kind of charges will there be?
Many cards will charge an application fee, and every secured card charges an annual fee that varies. Secured cards are a good option for those with less than stellar credit, because, even with higher-than-normal fees, the total cost for a secured card can be less than the astronomical interest charged on unsecured cards for those with very poor credit provided they can even obtain a card. The terms and conditions of a secured credit cards are furnished to the consumer at the time of the account being opened, just as with other cards, and should be reviewed carefully by the consumer to be sure he/she knows what they are getting themselves into.
How much money do I have to deposit?
Again, the amount will vary by the card. Most are $300 to $500. Your credit limit will either be the amount of your deposit or some percentage above that amount.
Do all banks offer secured credit cards?
No some lenders will shy away from secured cards and toward unsecured cards with lower limits and higher interest rates and fees. Still, secured cards are a good choice -- and sometimes the only option -- for people who are just starting out or rebuilding after a major life event, such as a divorce, job loss or serious illness. In addition, some issuers only give secured cards to people who are new to credit -- not those who have already had one crack and blown it.
Why we need credit cards?
Not only will you need a solid credit history to obtain a mortgage, but the truth of the matter is that credit cards have become a necessary tool to exist on this planet. You need one to make a hotel or plane reservation, or to rent a car, even if you plan to pay cash. Many stores require a credit card to accept your check. Responsible use of a credit card builds a good credit rating, too, marking the owner as mortgage-worthy.
A Safe Way to Build Credit :
Secured Credit Cards are a safe way to build credit without going into debt. You can make a deposit to your account and have a credit limit in the amount of your deposit. The bank takes little risk, and reports your transactions to the credit bureaus as you build credit slowly. You can find more information about secured credit card issuers by CLICKING HERE. For more news and information about purchasing a home or refinancing you can visit www.ToMortgageServices.com .
Market Comment
Mortgage bond prices fell last week pushing interest rates slightly higher. Governments across the globe continued to battle the credit crisis and economic instability. Billions of dollars of debt offerings by the US Treasury continued to be announced. Unfortunately, the additional supply caused bond prices in general to fall and rates to rise the middle of the week. Record weekly jobless claims, weak factory orders, and strong productivity data released Thursday provided much-needed boost for mortgage bonds. For the week, interest rates on government and conventional loans rose by about 1/8 of a discount point. The retail sales data Thursday will be the most important event this week. The Treasury will auction 3-year, 10-year and 30-year notes and bonds starting Tuesday. The additional supply may pressure rates. LOOKING AHEAD
|
Economic |
Release |
Consensus |
|
| 3-year Auction | Tuesday, February 10th 1:30 pm, et |
None | Very Important.. Treasury to auction 32B in 3-year notes. |
| Trade Data |
Wednesday, Feb. 11, |
$37 billion deficit | Important. Affects the value of the dollar. A falling deficit may strengthen the dollar and lead to lower rates. |
| 10-year Auction | Wednesday, February 11th 1:30 pm, et |
None | Very important.. Treasury to auction 21B in 10-year bonds |
| Weekly Jobless Claims |
Thursday, Feb. 12, |
585,000 |
Moderately important. A measure of unemployment. An increase in jobless claims may bring lower rates. |
| Retail Sales |
Thursday, Feb. 12, 8:30 am, et |
Down 0.3% | Important. A measure of consumer demand. A smaller than expected increase may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
| 30-year Auction |
Thursday, Feb. 12, |
None | Very important.. Treasury to auction 14B in 10-year bonds |
| U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment |
Friday, Feb. 13, 10:00 am, et |
61.5 | Important. An indication of consumersʼ willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
Trade Data In the distant past the US economy tended to be viewed as relatively unaffected by economic activity in other countries. However, increased trades with other countries and an increased reliance on foreign purchases of US debt have generated a market awareness of trade-related issues. The exchange rate of the dollar and foreign trade flows are interrelated. One must buy dollars to purchase US exports, and sell dollars to buy imports. Likewise, foreign investment in US debt requires the purchase of US dollars, and is thus affected by exchange rates. Each month the Commerce Department gathers an enormous amount of detailed data on exports and imports. The data is broken between goods and services trade. The overall trade balance is the dollar difference between US exports and imports on a seasonally adjusted basis. The report also highlights trade flows between the US and various partners. Since the mid-1970ʼs, US imports of consumer and capital goods have exceeded exports, so a merchandise trade deficit has existed. The US has always maintained a service trade surplus, and because this surplus is not enough to offset the merchandise trade deficit, a net export deficit has resulted. Due to the overwhelming amount of data considered, trade is difficult to forecast, and can present surprises. For a variety of reasons, the financial markets will often be unaffected by surprises in trade data. However, the data still has the ability to cause mortgage interest rate volatility. A higher than expected trade deficit could hurt gross domestic product estimates. Lower growth expectations have historically caused stocks to fall and bonds to rise. Keep in mind that market conditions as of late have been choppy and unpredictable. Any future data releases showing a rebound in the economy could lead to mortgage interest rate volatility, so lower rates are not a given.. A cautious approach to float decisions should be taken. For more news and information about purchasing or refinancing visit: www.ToMortgageServices.com
Mortgage bond prices fell last week pushing rates higher. In an announcement earlier in the month, Fed Chairman Bernanke indicated the timing of a global economic recovery was "highly uncertain.." This uncertainty was reinforced last week as the economic turmoil continued across the globe and Spain joined Greece to become the second Euro zone country to have their debt downgraded by Standards and Poorʼs. A lower debt rating increases the cost to borrow further aggravating the attempts to fund the massive bailouts. For the second week in a row, interest rates on government and conventional loans rose by about 3/4 of a discount point. The Fed meeting on Wednesday will be the most important event this week. Gross domestic product and employment cost index data Friday will also be important. LOOKING AHEAD
|
Economic |
Release |
Consensus |
|
| Existing Home Sales |
Monday, Jan. 26, |
Down 0.8% | Low importance.. An indication of mortgage credit demand. A significant decrease may lead to lower rates. |
| Leading Economic Indicators |
Monday, Jan. 26, |
Down 0.1% | Important. An indication of future economic activity. Weakness may lead to lower rates. |
| Consumer Confidence |
Tuesday, Jan. 27, |
38.0 | Important. An indication of consumersʼ willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
| 2-year Treasury Note Auction |
Tuesday, Jan. 27, |
None | Important. Notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
| Fed Meeting Adjourns |
Wednesday, Jan. 28, |
No change | Important. Few expect the Fed to change rates, but volatility may surround the adjournment of this meeting. |
| Durable Goods Orders |
Thursday, Jan. 29, |
Down 1.5% | Important. An indication of the demand for "big ticket" items. Weakness may lead to lower rates. |
| New Home Sales |
Thursday, Jan. 29, |
Up 1.9% | Important. An indication of economic strength and credit demand. A decrease may lead to lower rates. |
| 5-year Treasury Note Auction |
Thursday, Jan. 29, |
None | Important. Notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
| Q4 Advance GDP |
Friday, Jan. 30, |
Down 5.0% | Important. The aggregate measure of US economic production. Weakness may lead to lower rates. |
| U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment |
Friday, Jan. 30, |
None | Important. An indication of consumersʼ willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
| Q4 Employment Cost Index |
Friday, Jan. 30, |
Up 0.7% | Very important.. A measure of wage inflation. Weakness may lead to lower rates. |
A Fundamental Week The abundance of fundamental data this week provides a good opportunity for mortgages to improve. If the data shows weakness in the economy then it is possible for mortgage bonds to rally resulting in mortgage interest rate decreases. However, if the data shows that the economy is rebounding or any significant signs of inflation, mortgage bonds may fall pushing mortgage interest rates higher. You can find more information about mortgage rates and loan programs on the web at www.ToMortgageServices.com .
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