As promised, I'm highlighting things to do in Phoenix including a hike of the month. This one is one of my favorites. Located in North Phoenix, it is a quiet trail that is great to bring the kids along with or go horseback riding on.
The Go John and Overton Trails are actually two separate trails that come together to create one large 6-mile loop. You can do just either one or the whole thing. Separately, the Go John Trail is a 4.8-mile loop, and the Overton Trail is a 2.1-mile loop.
Hiking is easily one of the local favorite things to do in Phoenix and this trail is a great example of why. The Go John Trail begins as an easy hike through the desert that gradually begins a moderate climb via long switchbacks. At about 4-miles, you come to the junction with the Overton Trail. Here, you can either complete the Go John Trail or you can continue to hike along the Overton Trail. I will say, there is more shade along the Go John trail if that is something of interest.
The Overton Trail, much like the Go John Trail, offers a moderate climb before the downhill. This trail is so quiet that you might forget that you are in the 5th largest city in the nation. Yet, as the Overton Trail turns south, the sight of houses will remind you that you are - indeed - back in the city. The trail then descends toward a picnic area that has very nice ramadas where you can stop to catch your breath and have a drink of water.
As with any hike in the desert, pack lots of water. I also recommend using a Camelback water carrier so that your hands are free and available to take pictures. It's a very scenic hike.
Above all, enjoy the desert beauty. It is one of the best things to do in Phoenix as residents and visitors alike take in the stunning local flora. The Saguaro cacti, rough rocks, and landscape views are quite enchanting. Enjoy!
The stats:
Trailhead: Go John/Overton
Length: 6 miles roundtrip
Difficulty: Moderate
County Park: Cave Creek Regional Park
From Phoenix, take Cave Creek Road north to the Carefree Highway then turn left. Turn right onto 32nd Street and continue into the Cave Creek Recreational Area. There is a fee required to enter the park. Continue along the main park road. There is an access road for the Go John Trailhead on the left.
There are many wonderful things to do in Phoenix. But what really draws some of our retirees to the area is the beautiful landscape and outdoor activities: hiking included. If you are interested in buying a home in the Phoenix area, contact me. It's a great location - with many wonderful things to do in Phoenix - and I'm happy to help.
Many retirees also buy homes that are on golf courses - another one of the favorite things to do in Phoenix
Last year, I wrote a blog for realtor.com about the short sale process given that 2010 was being dubbed by the New York Times as the Year of the Short Sale. Much of the reasoning behind the title of the "Year of the Short Sale" is that - at the time - nearly 22 percent of homeowners were underwater on their home. With that many people underwater, how many options did they really have and the short sale process can definitely be appealing. And, according to Zillow, those numbers increased toward the end of the 2010 and currently around 27 percent of homeowners are now underwater.
So what is behind the short sale process?
By definition, real estate short sales are when a mortgage company or lender agrees to allow the homeowner to sell their home for less than what is currently owed on it. Rather than face foreclosure or bankruptcy, the short sale process allows the homeowner to get out of a financial obligation that could be such that their home value would never return to what was owed - while also allowing the bank to recoup some of the debt. This is where a real estate agent who understands the short sales process well can be of huge value, ensuring that your interests are represented during negotiations with the bank.
Trying to avoid the short sale process?
If you're trying to avoid the short sale process, homeowners have other options such as loan modifications, HUD counseling, or deed-in-lieu-of-foreclosure. Renegotiating loan terms can allow you to retain ownership of the home if that is something of interest. And many banks are interested in avoiding foreclosure however they can, especially in Arizona where we had the second highest rate of foreclosed home in the nation for 2010.
As always, I recommend using a trusted real estate expert who can help guide you through the short sale process. If you're considering buying, selling, or short selling a home, please contact me. I'm here to help.
The short sale process can help sell your home
This data came from RealtyTrac's U.S. Foreclosure Market Report for January 2011. RealtyTrac is a firm that tracks warning signs of foreclosures such as notices for defaults, scheduled home auctions, and home repossessions. The full press release can be found here.
They reported that the number of homes receiving an initial default notice fell 1 percent last month from December 2010 and dropped 27 percent from January of last year. That being said, foreclosure filings - which is defined as including default notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions - has slightly different numbers. The foreclosure filings saw a 1 percent increase from the previous month but a 17 percent decrease from January 2010.
A statement made by James Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac, in their official press release read that "We've now seen three straight months with fewer than 300,000 properties receiving foreclosure filings, following 20 straight months where the total exceeded 300,000." Essentially, all of these numbers are welcome news but they also may be a bit misleading. It is believed that foreclosure filings are decreasing due to the backlog of filings at banks - not that more people are avoiding foreclosures altogether.
What is happening with the Phoenix foreclosure market?
It's not great news. At a state level, Arizona posted the second-highest foreclosure rate (after Nevada and before California) in the nation. Our foreclosure activity increased 16 percent from December 2010 but - the good news is - foreclosures are down 25 percent year-over-year (from January 2010).
As a metro, the amount of Phoenix foreclosure filings put us as the eigth highest area in the nation.
So this new report offers mixed news: foreclosure filings are down but it looks like they are going to continue . . . and the Phoenix foreclosure market is down significantly but we're still leading the nation.
Overall, I think this report doesn't offer anything significantly different than what we already knew: it's going to take some time for the foreclosure filing to cycle through the market . . . and Phoenix remains a really good buy with many "deals" to be had.
If you are considering buying a Phoenix foreclosure, contact me. I have a lot of experience with bank-owned properties and am here to help.
Phoenix Housing Report - February 2011 from ARMLS
This is a copy of the ARMLS STAT report and is reprinted here with permission. The new year, buoyed with optimism from the December sales figures, was put back into its place with a disappointing 22% decline in January sales. The Phoenix housing report shows the total number of closed sales in January was 6,541 compared to December's 8,401. The natural sales decline from December to January has occurred every year since December 2001. This Dec/Jan drop is the second highest of the decade, surpassed only by the Dec 2008-Jan 2009 decline of 24.4%. However, the January figure is only a small deviation from November. If we consider that December was an anomaly driven by seasonal pressure to close by December 31st, then the market simply picked up where it left off in November. In any event, the Valley continues to struggle.
SALES Year over Year
Sales for January at 6,541 rose 13% over January 2010 (5,789). Both December 2010 and January 2011 sales figures are higher than their preceding year's counterpart. While it is tempting to project that this is as an indication of a better year to come, it mimics the robust increase (22.1%) of January 2010 over 2009, which disappointed us with year over year declines from May through November. It is, however, the second highest since 2001. Total yearly sales have been trending upward starting in 2006. With the exception of the record high total sales set in 2004 and 2005 (98,922 and 104,725), the total sales for 2009 and 2010 represent the 3rd and 4th highest of the decade (93,308 and 91,972). The positive year over year sales figure for this Phoenix housing report for January though is a good start, and fuels optimism that 2011 will follow the total yearly sales patterns of 2009 and 2010 . 
NEW INVENTORY
Total new listings are up 30.1% in January to 12,290. This is a reversal of the declining trend in new inventory from other Phoenix housing reports like September through December, but is typical of every January of the decade. While the increase in January's new inventory is no surprise, its 30.1% is well below the decade's average January rise of 63.74%. 
TOTAL INVENTORY
Total inventory remained relatively stable with only a 1% increase to 42,881. Total inventory has fluctuated within a narrow range between 41,317 and 45,353 for the last twelve months, with the average monthly inventory of 43,202. Total inventory is a key component of supply and demand. 
MONTHS SUPPLY OF INVENTORY (MSI)
Not surprisingly, the MSI for January in this Phoenix housing report jumped to 6.56 from December's 5.05, an aberration when considering that MSI has hovered above six months since July. While a market-wide MSI is not reflective of months supply in smaller niche markets, it is a barometer of the overall supply and demand balance and health of the market. At 6.56 we are clearly in a Buyer's market. Such conditions do not support any significant rise in the average or median sales prices. Until total inventory declines and sales rise, we can expect that the market will remain favorable toward Buyers. 
NEW LIST PRICES
New list prices in this Phoenix housing report took a jump in both the average and median in January. The average new list price rose 7% from December's $191,000 to $204,300. The median new list price rose 5.8% from December's $118,000 to $124,900. Unfortunately rises in new list prices do not directly correlate with increases in actual sales prices. However, if December's numbers were an anomaly driven by seasonal Seller reticence, leaving only new Sellers who must sell to drive the new list prices, then January figures are close to where the market left off in November . 
SALES PRICES
The median sales price for January held stable at $110,000, only a .2% decline from December's median of $110,200. The average sales price fell by 2.1% to $157,000 from $160,400. Downward pressure on prices continues in the current buyer's market, as a result of high inventory levels and the disproportionate percentage of distressed sales in the overall sales count. The looming high levels of foreclosures pending will prolong the downward pressure. 
THE ARMLS PENDING PRICE INDEXTM
Pending properties in the MLS system continue to be reliable predictors of median and av-erage pricing ninety days into the future. The ARMLS Pending Price Index (PPITM) is a metric unique to ARMLS since only ARMLS possesses sales price data on properties under contract awaiting future closing.\ Last month the PPI predicted $159,400 as the average sales price for January. The actual figure fell short of the prediction by 1.51%, with January's average sales price coming in at $157,000. This follows a steady 12.73% ($22,900) decline in average sales price that started with June's twelve month high of $179,900, and culminated in January at $157,000. The predictions for the average sales price for February, March and April are $161,000, $157,000 and $164,000 respectively, a pattern reminiscent of a fish flopping around the bottom of the boat trying desperately to get over the gunwale. The median sales price predicted by the PPI last month was $115,000, but the actual figure fell 4.35% lower to $110,000. This may be reflective of the large percentage of distressed properties in the pending property pool exerting downward pressure on the market's me-dian price. PPI's predictions for median sales price for February, March and April are $114,000, $113,000 and $110,000 respectively. 
FORECLOSURES PENDING
Foreclosures pending fell to 40,461 from the previous month's 41,485, continuing on a steady, fourteen month downward trend that marked its high point in November 2009 at 50,568, and ended this month 20% lower (a drop of 10,107). These levels though remain very high, and since they are not yet on the market, they are a reliable harbinger of con-tinued downward pricing pressure well into the future. Foreclosures pending must wend their way through the system before they enter the marketplace and are absorbed as new sales. 
LENDER OWNED SALES
Lender owned sales fell 23.37% from December's 4,061 to January's 3,112. This current Phoenix housing report figure is in line with the twelve month average of 3,170. Lender Owned Sales in January accounted for 47.6% of total sales. 
AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET
Average Days on Market dropped two days from December's 115 days to 113 in January, making December and January the highest DOM in the last twelve months. Days on mar-ket will typically be lengthened in a Buyer's market, as the consequence of large inven-tory and a smaller Buyer pool.
DISTRESSED SALES
Distressed sales are a composite of closed Short Sales and sales of Lender Own Proper-ties. They exert a disproportionate pressure on the supply and demand balance and negatively affect average and median prices of both listings and sales. Of the 6,541 total sales in January, 70.2% (4,591) were distressed. Closed Short Sales of 1,479 accounted for 22.61% of total sales and 32.22% of all distressed sales, as Lender Owned Sales con-tinued to dominate the market.
Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) COMMENTARY on this Phoenix Housing Report
This is a copy of the ARMLS STAT report and is reprinted here with permission.
The numbers for January are disappointing, yet they follow a very typical seasonal pattern: decrease in sales at the start of the year and increase in inventory as Sellers come back into the market after the holiday season. On the pricing front, the market seems to be engaged in the perfect storm: small Buyer pool, very large inventory, high foreclosures pending, and disproportionate percentage of distressed sales: all creating a greater Months Supply of Inventory and higher Days on Market. Like all storms there is no other strategy but to wait it out. The PPI shows that prices will continue flopping along the bottom, and the high numbers of foreclosures pending indicate that as the market glut of lender owned proper-ties are sold, there will be plenty more to take their place, for some time into the future.
Accompanying the disproportionate percentage of distressed sales is the discomforting reality that lenders, through their negotiation on short sales and liquidation of lender owned properties, exert undue influence on the Valley pricing. It is always an unhealthy phenomenon when any sector dominates a market, but 70.2% distressed sales is chronic pain and suffering. However, more short sale closings mean those properties don't go to foreclosure. That's good. More foreclosure sales means we are getting rid of them, albeit slowly. That's good. And the pending foreclosures are coming down which means fewer replacement lender owned listings. So an increase in the number of distressed sales may just be the medicine the market has to take for a while to help it on its way. Many economic indicators evidence that recovery has started. On the national level, the U.S. Commerce Department released an advance estimate of gross domestic product (GDP) for the fourth quarter of 2010, indicating a 3.2 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter, up from a third quarter growth rate of 2.6 percent.* The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the net change in unemployment in Q2 was 728,000, the first positive net employment change since the recession began in December 2007. In addi-tion, the national unemployment rate fell by 0.4 percentage point to 9.4 percent in December. ** In Arizona, employment in most sector categories (manufacturing; wholesale and retail trade; transportation, warehousing and utilities; finance, insurance, real estate; professional and business services; education and health services; leisure and hospitality; non-farm) realized a month over month gain from No-vember to December 2010. The Phoenix Metropolitan Area (Maricopa and Pinal Counties) mirrors the same pattern. *** The essential ingredients to the Valley's real estate recovery have always been jobs and net migration. In Maricopa and Pinal counties, the December unemployment rate declined for the sixth month in a row to 8.41%, compared to the state rate of 9.14%. The decline, coupled with the employment growth in many sectors, is a healthy sign. Unfortunately, population increase from 2008 to 2009 was only .9%, and 2010 figures may be even lower, given the loss of residents due to immigration issues. *** A new resident considering a relocation to the Valley will look for affordable housing, financing and a job. The first two we have covered, and we are creeping in the right direction on the third. * http://www.commerce.gov/news/press-releases/2011/01/28/statement-us-commerce-secretary-gary-locke-advance-estimate-gdp-fourt ** http://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm#major *** EBR Database Online Copyright ARMLS February 2011. Reprinted with permisson.
Phoenix Home Values Report - February 2011
The numbers for January are in and well, they are mixed. Pricing is still soft, but the experts are saying there are many indicators that there are better times coming very soon. The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service or ARMLS released their STAT report today and you can click here to read it.
Phoenix home values for homes coming on the market in January 2011 increased by nearly 7%. But don't get too excited because the median sales price for January fell by .2% to $110,000 compared to December. The average sold price in January fell by 2.1% to $157,000 from $160,400. Downward pressure on prices is being blamed on the high inventory levels in the market and the number of short or distressed sales.
In terms of the number of sales in January, they dropped by nearly 22% from December. But there is good news here! The number of sales is actually UP 15.0% compared to January 2010.
Pending sales are also on the rise which should translate into a reduction in inventory. Sales rose 19.4% from January 1 to February 1, an unusually large increase suggesting strengthening demand and a busy buying season ahead. The total of 10,565 is 0.8% lower than 2010 and experts blame that reduction on the fact that there was a tax credit being offered last year at this time.
Another sign Phoenix home values maybe rising soon is that active listings declined between January 1 and February 1 by 1.8%. Sellers should be happy with this number because a lower supply means higher demand and price increases.
So the bottom line is that there are still plenty of great values out there, especially for the buy and hold investor or for those looking to owner occupy a property. For more a more detailed look at the numbers, please click here for the ARMLS STAT report.
I specialize in selling Phoenix real estate -- Scottsdale homes and Phoenix homes, including Phoenix short sales and bank owned homes. To see my listings and learn more, visit www.MyPhoenixMLS.com
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