Lake Winnipesaukee Market Conditions January 1, 2008 through October 31, 2008 versus January 1, 2009 through October 31, 2009
Some of my predictions for Lake Winnipesaukee real estate sales for the second half of 2009 have already become true. For instance...there are more pending and closed Lake Winnipesaukee real estate sales over $3,000,000 than there were during the same time period last year (January 1, 2008 through October 31, 2008 versus January 1, 2009 through October 31, 2009),
For this same time period, there were 63 Lake Winnipesaukee waterfront real estate sales in 2008 and 64 sales in 2009. The highest price sale for this time period in 2009 was $6.5 million versus a highest sales price of $4.1 million in 2008. The average sales price in 2009 so far has been $1,125,478 versus $1,272,458 for this same time period in 2008. There has been a dramatic upswing in sales prices so far for the second half of 2009. The sales during the first half of the year were primarily below $1,000,000. If the pending sales are an indication of how 2009 will continue, it looks as though the dramatic upswing in sales prices for the second half of the year will continue. The second half of the year will have an unusual number of the highest end sales, even if all of the pending sales don't close this year.*
To view the rest of my predictions from the second half of the year, view my Lake Winnipesaukee Real Estate trends page on my website www.NicoleWatkins.com. To search for all current MLS listings visit the MLS Search page of my website. View current Lake Winnipesaukee real estate listings and make your predictions on what Winnipesaukee other waterfront properties will sell in 2009.
(*Based on information from the Northern New England Real Estate Network, for the Lake winnipesaukee shored towns of Center Harbor, Alton, Meredith, Moultonborough, Gilford, LaconiA, Tuftonboro, Wolfeboro for the above-referenced time periods. This information includes Residential properties only, NOT condos or land.)
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Lake Winnipesaukee Real Estate Market Conditions.
Lake Winnipesaukee Waterfront real estate trends from 01/01/2009-06/28/2009 versus 01/01/2008-06/28/2008
In the first 6 months of 2009, between 01/01/2009-06/28/2009, there have been 28 Lake Winnipesaukee waterfront residential sales. (Not bad for predominantly second home statistics in a down economy).
The median selling price for these Lake Winnipesaukee waterfront homes, in the above- referenced time period, was $760,500. The average selling price was $856,990. The average number of days on market was 128.
During this same time period in 2008, there were 31 Lake Winnipesaukee waterfront home sales. The median selling price during this time period in 2008 was $1,460,000. The average selling price was $1,447,672. The average number of days on market was 148. *
The number of days on maket are slightly fewer this year. The median and average selling prices are down significantly in the first half of 2009 versus 2008, but, in my opinion, that is partly because the number of Lake Winnipesaukee waterfront properties on the market this year, which have less square footage, and which are on canals or narrow waterfrontage, and which are both listed and assessed at under $1,000,000 is a far greater number than last year.
We obviously don't know the statistcs for the second half of 2009 yet. Let's take a look at the second half of 2008 and see if we can predict anything for the second half of 2009. From 06/29/2008 to 12/31/2008 there were 46 (forty-six) Lake Winnipesaukee waterfront residential home sales. The average number of days on market for the second half of 2008 was 230. The average selling price during this time period was $1,040,457.
The median selling price was $786,000. The median selling price for the second half of 2008, therefore is almost exacly the same as the first half of 2009.
With recent high end activity greatly increased in June 2009, my prediction is that the median selling price for the second half of 2009 will be higher than 2008. I also predict that the number of Lake Winnipesaukee waterfront sales over $3,000,000, will be approximately the same as the number of sales over $3,000,000 in 2007 and 2008. (There were a total 5 (five) Lake Winnipesaukee Waterfront home sales over $3,000,000, in both 2007 and 2008.)
(*Based on information from the Northern New England Real Estate Network, for the all of the Winnipesaukee-shored towns ( Alton, Meredith, Center harbor, Moultonborough, Wolfeboro, Tuftonboro, Laconia, and Gilford ) for the above-referenced time period. This information includes residential homes with owned waterfrontage, NOT condos or land Please note that days on market will not be accurate if a property listing has been listed with more than one real estate agency or if the property was off the market for 30 days or more.)
My personal impressions aside, the number of Moultonborough Lake Winnipesaukee waterfront home sales is down so far for the year 2008 compared to 2007. The average selling price of Moultonbrough Lake winnipesaukee waterfront home sales, however, is up....significantly.
The average Moultonborough Lake Winnipesaukee waterfront home sale was only $960,152 in 2007, which increased to $1,272,918 in 2008*.
(*Based on statistics from the Northern New England Real Estate Network for the time period January 1, 2007-August 27, 2007 compared to January 1, 2008-August 27, 2008. This includes Lake Winnipesaukee owned waterfront home sales only, not condos, land, or water access properties.)
This trend for higher selling prices, but with fewer sales has been a trend since the beginning of 2008. (Please note that my blog entry "Moultonborough NH Lake Winnipesaukee waterfront home sales statistics for January 1st-February 18th 2007 vs. this same period in 2008" notes that the average selling price for January 1 2008-Feberuary 18, 2008 was $2,000,000 on the lake versus $$1,022,400 for this same time period in 2007.
My personal impression is that activity on the high Moultonbrough Lake Winnipesaukee real estate market has increaseed significantly in recent weeks. Our office has had many more waterfront customers coming though through our doors...and through the doors of our many Moultonborough Lake Winnipesaukee waterfront real estate listings. The Moultonborough Lake Winnipesaukee homes for sale, which are seeing this surge of activity will likely see offers brought to their Sellers in the upcoming weeks.
It is anybody's guess how many Moultonborough Lake Winnipesaukee properties will go "under contract." My personal experience is that the nicest properties are the ones that always hold their value or apprciate. No matter how cheaply an inferior property is purchased for, it will never attract the number of potential buyers that the superior Moultonborough Lake Winnipesaukee properties attract.
Moultonborough Lake Winnipesaukee land values are not depreciating. The "deflation" that has occurred will be the extent of the deflation. The best land parcels are more scarce than ever and the new changes to the Shoreline Protection Act as of July 1, 2008 will further restrict what can be done to lakefront property. Moultonborugh Lake Winnipesaukee new construction therefore, which had foundations in prior to July 1, 2008, made full use of the more relaxed laws, and will be more valuable to buyers. Buyers usually do not look kindly on having more restrictions placed on a proeprty for which they are paying millions of dollars.)
To sum up, Moultonborough lakefront property which appraises at $1,000,000 or more currently, will hold its value or appreciate in the coming months. What is your opinion?
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