ORANGE COUNTY - OVERALL
Supply is low. There are currently 9,184 homes on the market in Orange County. This is the lowest we've seen since early 2006. Two years ago, inventory was nearly 17,000 and cobwebs were forming on for sale signs across the county. The reduction of inventory is the result of an incredible increase in demand - both first time home buyers and investors.
Demand is high. There are currently 6,449 properties in escrow or awaiting short sale approval. This number represents the total of pending and back up status listings. In addition, 2,611 homes sold in the last 30 days. In total, we have nearly as many homes sold or in escrow in the last 30 days as homes on the market. While actual inventory supply time is 3.5 months based on closed sales, we have just over a month's supply of inventory when you combine sold, back up and pending sales.
It's a SELLER's market. This means we are in a pronounced seller's market in Orange County. As a buyer, you can expect to pay listing price or above and be competing against 10 - 20 other buyers for each property that is priced correctly.
ORANGE COUNTY - FORECLOSURES
Bank owned foreclosures. If you are a buyer or investor hoping to pick up foreclosures for pennies on the dollar, the time has passed. Today, you need to place your offer quickly and strongly to even have a shot. Check out the market snapshot for bank owned foreclosures:
Supply - 402 homes (compared with almost 5,000 in mid-2008)
Demand - 218 in back up status, 807 pending, 677 closed in the last 30 days = 1,702 properties are pending or closed in the last 30 days.
In other words, REAL demand for bank owned foreclosures are 4X the level of current supply.
ORANGE COUNTY - $750,000
Due to the concentration of investors and first time home buyers in mainly the sub-$500K market, the market over $750,000 is dramatically different.
Supply - 3,841 properties
Demand - 490 in back up, 287 pending, 408 closed in the last 30 days = 611 properties are pending or closed in the last 30 days
We have a 9.4 month supply of inventory based on closed sales and 4.9 month supply based on pending and back up sales for properties over $750,000. These price ranges are still in a buyer's market, and the numbers shift more toward a buyer's market over $1M.
For specific information on the cities and price range you are most interested in, please give us a call and we'll create a custom market snapshot for you.
Nancy Moeller, CPA, Real Estate Broker
Seven Gables Real Estate
License #01727426
www.TheOCExperts.com
Direct: 714 276-7006
Did you know ... 82.5% of all statistics are made up on the spot?
Don't worry about remembering the number, because there is 93.2% chance I will change it next time.
In our industry, numbers and statistics help us understand our market, project sales and make educated predictions about the future. However, like the glass that is half full or half empty, the same number can easily mean different things to different people.
One of the most quoted real estate statistics is the median price of homes. Most cite median price to show market increases or decreases. In fact, median prices have very little to do with prices, and more to do with the concentration of demand. The median is simply the middle point of demand - half the houses sold for less than the median price and half of the houses sold for more than the median price.
In today's Orange County market, demand is concentrated in the sub-$500,000 and even more in the sub-$300,000 price range. In fact, it's a hot SELLER's market in these ranges. For homes priced over $700,000 - the story is dramatically different with demand at a virtual standstill. The higher the price, the lower the demand.
As such, the median price of homes in Orange County is continuing to fall, reflecting the higher concentration of demand in the lower price ranges. The key is to STOP there. Do not further assume that prices are declining.
To determine if prices are declining, level or increasing, you must narrow your focus to 1) a specific price range, 2) a specific city or neighborhood and 3) a specific time frame. The more general the statistic, the more skewed the interpretation.
Whenever someone asks about the Orange County market, the first question we ask is the price range and area they are referring to, because unlike most markets, our current market is divided and there are no universal truths or predictions that would be accurate for the entire Orange County real estate market in general.
Nancy Moeller, CPA, Real Estate Broker
Seven Gables Real Estate
Direct (714) 276-7006
www.TheOCExperts.com for Orange County Real Estate
www.OCBankDeals.com for Orange County Foreclosures
www.ZeroShort.com for options available to avoid foreclosure
Dear Nancy and Todd,
We wanted to express our thanks for assisting us in finding our new home. Being first-time buyers, we were searching for a realtor who was able to guide us through the process of home buying and financing.
We were initially impressed with your down to earth nature, your knowledge, and honest presentation. Thankfully, Nancy, you were able to put the numbers down on paper, helping us see exactly how much house was right for us. Todd, as we searched for homes, you did not pressure us, nor did you show us homes that were out of our range. You made it a fun experience with your sense of humor and knowledge of the area.
When we finally found our home, you both hit the ground running and acted as our advocate throughout the entire escrow process - even after we moved in and the escrow period was over! As you know, we hit some major bumps in the road during escrow. I am certain that if it wasn't for your perseverance with the lender, escrow company, and homeowner's association, we wouldn't have been able to move in on time - which would have resulted in utter chaos, including putting our belongings in storage and moving into a motel.
We cannot thank you enough for your services. We will happily refer you to everyone we know who is selling or buying a home.
With thanks,
Tom and Michelle Fox
I can't remember the details of the episode, but I'm often reminded of the title and point of an old Twilight Zone episode titled, "How to Serve Humans". In the story, the main character believes that aliens refer to the manual, "How to Serve Humans" to learn how to be of better service to humans. Later, he understands that the manual is actually a recipe book and he is about to be cooked - literally.
In real estate, we often find ourselves with a similar misconception. While we all believe that our purpose is to be of service to our clients, our industry and our families ... too often, agents and other real estate service providers are just trying to figure out how to cook a deal and sell a house.
Today, I'm sitting another open house for a rental property. We held it open last weekend. I arrived early to place advertisements on cars at the local shopping center to drive traffic to the open house. We advertise it daily and created a website to promote the listing. By the way - if you know anyone in the market for a terrific, upgraded home in Corona, please send them to www.7576WalnutGrove.info ... as of this post we have not found the right tenant for our client.
Here's the point. While our commission will be less than $300, we are giving it as much as much attention as our $1.9 million listing. Why? Because this is a good client who was originally referred to us by another good client. We helped them find this investment property and offered to help them find a tenant. It's really that simple. Our job of serving our client is not over.
At the same time, our team still must reach our goals, focus our attention and support our families. And this means we must sell houses. The key is to balance service with sales. While the idealists among us will argue they are the same, the honest understand the difference.
Nancy Moeller, CPA, Real Estate Broker
Seven Gables Real Estate
Direct (714) 276-7006
www.TheOCExperts.com for Orange County Real Estate
www.OCBankDeals.com for Orange County Foreclosures
www.ZeroShort.com for options available to avoid foreclosure
For our clients and friends who urged us to design an ad that did not look like a standard "Realtor Ad", we thank you for your encouragement and hope you like the new concept. Our slogal is "It takes more than a sign in the yard to sell real estate", and as always, we welcome your input. It is scheduled to launch in the community based @In Home Magazine Anaheim Hills / Yorba Linda next month.
Todd and Nancy Moeller
Seven Gables Real Estate
Direct: 714 276-7006
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As a CPA, REALTOR® and financial expert, I focus on protecting our clients financial interests in the sale.
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