minette goldsmith

MARKET COMMENTARY

Mortgage Rates have moved only slightly this week over last week. The relevant news this week focused on changes suggested by the Mortgage Bankers Association to FNMA and Freddie Mac and to the possibility that the Treasury will significantly reduce buying securities that effectively have been holding down mortgage interest rates. This past week they bought $26 billion in such securities. Both the suggestions from the MBA and the purchase reduction of mortgage securities by the treasury have long time horizons so the impact on rates now are minimal, but they are issues to keep an eye on.

Today's news about employment is tempered because while the total percentage of unemployment is up more than expected, 9.7%, the additional number of people losing their jobs this month, is again a smaller increase than before so people continue to say things are getting better. Unfortunately, lots of people are staying unemployed for a long period causing them great hardship.

Next week, there are treasury auctions for another $70 billion. The 10 year treasury, the index that most closely tracks mortgage interest rates, will be auctioned on Wednesday. Look for rates to move a bit more that day than the rest of the week.

These are my opinions and don't represent the Southern Arizona Community Bank's. This is for informational purposes only, not investment advice.

WHY MOVE TO TUCSON, ORO VALLEY OR MARANA? In my earlier post on August 8th, TOP REASONS TO MOVE TO TUCSON, I highlighted the WEATHER, ACTIVE LIFE STYLE, AND THE OLD WEST ATTITUDE as great reasons to move to Tucson. This time let me go into more detail on TUCSON HOME PRICES, LOW TAXES AND COST OF LIVING, AND RELATIVELY LOW COST, HIGH QUALITY HIGHER EDUCATION.

Like most of the rest of the country, TUCSON'S HOME PRICES HAVE DECLINED OVER THE PAST YEAR. The amount of the decline differs by neighborhoods. In general the Tucson MLS indicates HOME PRICES declined 17.3% from last year. The average sales price in July was $210,767. Home prices play a big part in making Tucson more affordable than many places. Sperlings Best Places website indicates that Tucson's COST OF LIVING is 5.10% lower than the national average. In comparison to two other retirement communities, Hilton Head has a 74% higher cost of living and Fort Lauderdale has a 30% higher cost of living. Real estate taxes are approximately 1% of your home value. As an aside, both Fort Lauderdale and Tucson have palm trees.

My experience in moving from Northern New Jersey to Tucson is that housing is almost half, real estate taxes are much less, you don't need as much heating for your home and you really only need air conditioning for at most five months a year, clothing is less and entertainment is less. No need for heavy winter clothes here. The price of a Broadway in Tucson show is less than those on Broadway, but I have to admit, it's not Broadway...

The UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA AND PIMA COMMUNITY COLLEGE provide MAJOR BARGAINS in HIGHER EDUCATION compared to most universities back east. The UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA has over 36,000 students and they estimate a semester's tuition for in state students at under $5000. PIMA COMMUNITY COLLEGE is even less expensive and is now coordinating 4 year degrees with other institutions. According to WWW.STATEUNIVERSITY.COM the UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA is ranked 406 out of 2000 universities while it's cost is 885th. There are many free charter schools here besides the traditional public schools and private schools for grammer and highschools.

If you are thinking of moving here, happy to chat about what is important to you. Give me a call.

Ronstadt Insurance, a local Tucson Health and Life Insurance Company, is owned by the decendants of one of the founding members of the Tucson community. Fred Ronstadt came to Tucson from Mexico as a teen to be a blacksmith apprentice back in 1882. His family has played an important part in the history of Tucson from the prospective of politics, business, the arts and charity.

I spoke with Jill Baumann who works for Ronstadt Insurance. Her specialty is individual health insurance and small group insurance. She has a social services background and thinks of her work as a continuation of protecting people. Both she and I have seen the impact of people being uninsured or underinsured. Most people in the mortgage banking industry such as myself, have seen mortgage applicants who were bankrupted by health costs. People have to work their way back to financial health as well as physical health after that.

In this economic environment, Ms. Baumann sees employers cutting back the health care they provide their employees just so they can keep the staff on their payroll. People who lose their jobs are also often losing their health care given the high cost of COBRA if they even have access to COBRA. She meets with people to recommend what is the best option for them. There are low cost options available - such as programs with high deductibles and/or health savings accounts. Ronstadt represents many different carriers so that an appropriate fit can be made for each individual situation. From knowing Jill, I can tell her client's needs will be at the forefront of her concerns.

Jill also blogs at YOURINDIVIDUALHEALTHINSURANCEBLOG.BLOGSPOT.COM. She is actually the first person to really explain the ins and outs of blogging to me. She promotes her blog on both her and her company's facebook page and their website, www.ronstadtinsurance.com

If your client has a Taylor Bean Whitaker Mortgage, please ask them to check if their August mortgage payment went through. Taylor Bean & Whitaker recently ceased accepting new loan applications but indicated they hoped to continue servicing. My client, who had automatic withdrawals for his mortgage payment noticed that the funds had not been swept out of his account. Based on his discussions with TBW and my discussions with people there as well, TBW has cancelled automatic withdrawals. People need to make the payment by mail. Please have your clients check to see if they fall into the same situation. You'll be a hero if you help them avoid having to pay late fees or worse yet end up with a 30 day late on their mortgage payment on their credit report.

Why move to Tucson, Oro Valley or Marana? You already know the weather is terrific! I heard from two people just today that people back east didn't have a summer this year. We sure did! And while it is sunny and too hot here for about 4 weeks a year, the rest of the time is beautiful. Even when it rains it is gorgeous - ask anyone here about that. There are very few dreary, rainy days in Tucson. It does get an occasional dusting of snow, but just to look pretty. There is no shoveling required. In fact, on winter days when it is a freezing 40 degrees out, people often drive up to Mt. Lemmon - on the east side of town but 7000 feet higher elevation, to play in the snow (including skiing) and shovel snow onto their cars to bring back into Tucson. Snow on the cars looks pretty cool around here.

The opportunity to be more active. In part because Tucson weather is wonderful, we really do use our swimming pools. Our unheated pool is comfortable from May through September.

Many people are more active here and hence healthier. While most people stay out of the noon day sun, the Tucson mornings and evenings are very comfortable. When I lived in New York and New Jersey, the most I would run would be a mile. A few years after I moved here I trained to run 3 miles with ALL ABOUT RUNNING AND WALKING, a local store in Oro Valley, a year later I ran the Tucson half marathon and then 2 years later I trained with ALL ABOUT RUNNING AND WALKING again and ran the Phoenix Rock and Roll full marathon. A year later I ran the Arizona Distance Classic Valley of Gold 1/2 marathon in Oro Valley.

When you are not running, you can hike. The hiking in Catalina State Park,Sabino Canyon, Mt. Lemmon, Saguaro National Park, and many other areas provide respite from the work a day world. It is varied so people who need to walk on level ground have places as well as people who want to hike into elevation. There are a number of hidden treasures on the hiking paths - pools of water, great views, interesting wild life, old mining shafts, abandoned homes, Indian petroglyphs.

Top golfers come to Tucson and you can play here too. Recently Jack Nicklaus dedicated his Signature Golf Course at the Ritz-Carlton in Marana. There are both private and public golf courses available. Lots of places for lessons too. And of course, where there is golf, there is tennis.

We are also part of the Old West. So we have rodeos you can compete in too. Or, if you are like me, you can watch. Marana has the Western Heritage Arena where they host rodeos. And Tucson has Rodeo Days. Tucson hosts one of the top 25 Rodeos in North America every February. It is a 2 week event. Part of Rodeo Days is the Tucson Rodeo Parade. world's longest non-motorized parade. We also have some of the best Mexican Restaurants around. For a fun time in the Old West, We have Old Tucson Studios where many of the old western movies were shot. You can watch gun slingers shoot 'em there or in Trail Dust Town in Tucson.

There are many more reasons to move to Tucson- reasonable home prices, relatively low taxes and cost of living, low costs for a great higher education and more and I will cover them in my next post.

If you do decide to come here, I am happy to chat with you about your plans.