Stacie Robbins

We are now almost 3 years into this real estate market down turn and there is no sign of rebound just yet. However, several well respected economists are making predictions of when they think our market will bottom out and then recover.

Former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan wrote in an article for Emerging Markets newspaper that the U.S. housing market will recover in the first half of 2009. “The recent slowing in the rate of decline in U.S. home prices is the first positive note in this now year-long trauma. More conclusive signs of pending home price stability are likely to become visible in the first half of 2009.” --

“ Greenspan Sees Housing Recovery in First Half of 2009,” by Jake Lee, Bloomberg, Oct. 10, 2008

Respected economist and Mercer University professor Roger Tutterow predicts the nation's housing market will return to near normal conditions by mid-2009. “I think we will move sideways for a couple of more quarters, and hopefully by the time we get into the middle part of 2009, we will have had inventory levels come back down to levels where it starts to make sense to clear land, drive nails and start new home construction again.” --

“ Mercer Economist: Housing Market Crisis Over by Mid-'09,” by Marcus E. Howard, Marrietta Daily Journal, Oct. 23, 2008.

In addition, most of us know that the problem is not necessarilythat the real estate prices are not yet low enough for the hoards of buyers to jump in, but rather it is a problem with available mortgages. This is especially true in higher end markets such as Mammoth Lakes California because although conforming mortgages can still be tough to get, it's not as bad as the jumbo market. In Mammoth CA, we have a unique problem with conforming limits. We are only about 4 square miles of the entire county so, when computing the limits, the very low end that surrounds the outerlying areas of the county brings down the average for us dramatically.

In Mammoth where a studio just big enough for 1 or 2 people for weekend trips is in the neighborhood of $200,000 (and that is about 20-25% off of peak prices), larger properties easily exceed our conforming limit of $472,000. Our average price is just over the $500,000 range.

Like many others, I'm hoping that the mortgage crisis gets better when the government can figure how to effectively execute the bail out program.

How about a little good news for a change?

Recent Quotes & Excerpts about the Positive Signs in the Real Estate Market:

Statistics Reveal Housing Market Bottom is Close How close are we to a bottom in the housing market? If The PMI Group is right, we're closer than you might think. PMI, a mortgage insurance firm, looks at trends in home prices, local wages and employment, and other factors to calculate the likelihood that home prices in a given city will be lower two years from now than they are today. Based on their calculations, about 65% of the nation's housing markets have less than a 10% chance of falling, and 38 of the top 100 have a less than 1% chance.

• In October 2005, near the peak of the boom, the median sales price for a U.S. home reached 7.3 times per capita income; by this May it had fallen to 5.7, in line with historical norms.
  
• Nationally, the rate of decline in sales is slowing, and in some regions sales numbers have actually perked up. “The indicators are starting to look better,” says Adam York, an economic analyst with Wachovia.
  
• The national sales figures that get so much attention … are brought down by boom-and-bust markets like Las Vegas, Miami and Phoenix. If hard-hit states like California, Arizona, Nevada and Florida are taken out of the statistical mix, the picture is much more promising.
  
• The government’s sweeping bailout of the financial sector could boost the housing market by making borrowing easier for buyers. --
  

“ Home Prices: Now for the Good News,” by Brad Reagan and Elizabeth O'Brien, Smart Money Magazine, Oct. 17, 2008.