Pacita Dimacali - e-PRO, SRES, CDPE, MBA East Bay, North CA real estate

For the statisticians and other folks who prefer graphs to see what's going on a specific market, here's a snapshot of what it looks like in San Ramon, comparing the market the past two years, starting in October 2007 - October 2009.

People will see different things and interpret this information in different ways --- I guess it depends on what you want to see or what you hope will happen. Some market observers have said the bottom was four months ago. Some say the worst is yet to come (when?).

in the meantime, here's what the data is SHOWING us.

MONTHS SUPPLY OF INVENTORY I like starting with the months supply of inventory. When there are more buyers than there are sellers, it means that it's a seller's market. The higher the months inventory, the more it becomes a seller's market. Traditonally, if the the months inventory is more than six months, it's a buyer's market, and vice versa. This shows quite drop, and seems to be on a continuous downtrend.

UNDER CONTRACT Homes under contract peaked in September 2009 (height of selling season?) and dropped in October.

MEDIAN PRICE it appears the median price is recovering because the median price is only 8% below where it was two years ago. The lowest median prices were posted in January 2009, and made a comeback the next month!

SUPPLY AND DEMAND Here'sgood way to correlate number of properties sold (demand) with number of properties for sale (supply). Supply is on the downward trend, or 38% less than where it was this time in 2007. While demand increased by 55%.

So...what are these graphs telling you?

For the statisticians and other folks who prefer graphs to see what's going on a specific market, here's a snapshot of what it looks like in San Ramon, comparing the market the past two years, starting in October 2007 - October 2009.

People will see different things and interpret this information in different ways --- I guess it depends on what you want to see or what you hope will happen. Some market observers have said the bottom was four months ago. Some say the worst is yet to come (when?).

in the meantime, here's what the data is SHOWING us.

MONTHS SUPPLY OF INVENTORY I like starting with the months supply of inventory. When there are more buyers than there are sellers, it means that it's a seller's market. The higher the months inventory, the more it becomes a seller's market. Traditonally, if the the months inventory is more than six months, it's a buyer's market, and vice versa. This shows quite drop, and seems to be on a continuous downtrend.

UNDER CONTRACT Homes under contract peaked in April 2009 (height of selling season?) and seems to be on the rise again in October.

MEDIAN PRICE After a significant drop in number of units sold as well as media price, it appears the median price is showing a slight uptick although the median price is still 16% below where it was two years ago,

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SUPPLY AND DEMAND Here'sgood way to correlate number of properties sold (demand) with number of properties for sale (supply). Supply is on the downward trend, or 52% less than where it was this time in 2007. While demand increased by 57%.

So...what are these graphs telling you?

My first time home buyers are whooping it up. Why not? The popular first time home buyer tax credit that was set to expire end of November 2009 may be extended through end of June 2010.

I have buyers who have been looking for months but are getting outbid so many times, or are running out of time waiting for the short sale approval/acceptance of their offers.

Even better, it isn't just first time buyers who have reason to celebrate. A new tax credit was introduced to aid repeat buyers. I wonder if this will apply both for buyers who want to move up as well as buyers who want to downsize.

Although the complete details aren't available yet, here are the key provisions.

First time home buyer tax credit

• Buyers must be in contract by April 30, 2010
• Buyers have 60 days from that day to close escrow to qualify for the tax credit
• Tax credit is $8,000 or UP TO 10% of purchase price

Repeat buyers tax credit

• Defined as homeowners who have lived in their residence for five years
• Tax credit is $6,500

But wait, there's more! The levels for the home buyers were increased! Good news, indeed, for at least one of my buyers who was making more money than the previous qualifying level. So now, there's a chance that he will qualify for the tax credit after all!

• Individuals earning up to $125,000, up from $75,000 for individuals under the current law
• Couples earning up to $250,000, up from $150,000 under the current law'

More tax credits.

Additionally, there are other tax credits that the homeowners can explore. Although folks may argue that these tax credits are costing us....think of another way to look at these credits. They will encourage folks to BUY! And when they buy more goods and services, they (and we) do our share to stimulate the economy.

• federal tax credits for energy efficiency. Time to replace that old furnace? Want to get double pane windows? Need to get better insulation? Want to replace that leaky roof? Old water heater on its last legs? There's an energy-efficient solution to meet your requirements.
• ENERGY (Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy) STAR appliances that may apply to central air conditions, washers, dishwashers, freezers, refrigerators, and more. More on this as things develop.

Have fun shopping!

Market observers think that the bottom of the market was three months ago. In Oakland CA, this may be the case.

GET THE PICTURE!

Months supply of inventory

Some seasoned real estate professionals and observers say that when the months inventory is less than six (6) months, it is a seller's market. In Oakland, that inventory is less than two months, and is the lowest it's been in two years. Are we there yet?

Median sold price

Astute investors always advise "Buy low, sell high." In Oakland, for data on detached single family homes, the median price saw a drop of 69% from $616K in Sept 2007 to $191K in Sept 2009.

Supply and demand

Supply of homes for sale declined by 52% from Sept 2007 to Sept 2009, while the number of properties for sale showed an upward movement by 156% during the same period of time.

If buyers are waiting for the price to drop, they should keep a close look at the dwindling number of homes for sale compared to an increasing number of buyers. They may NOT see the price dropping much more than they have already since a sellers market may be emerging.

RANT! RANT! RANT!

As if researching suitable properties isn't enough of a challenge, now we have to deal with listing agents who don't bother posting at least one photo to show us what the property looks like.

While going through a list of properties using certain criteria, I identified 127 that may be suitable. But going through the list, I was dumbfounded at seeing that 30% of these listings do not have a single photo of the property.

And of the 38 that do not have pictures 31 of them were short sales.

SHORT SALE PROPERTY OWNERS ARE DISTRESSED!

For gosh sakes, when people are selling their homes as short sales, they are obviously in distress. And what they need is for someone to write an offer so that the short sale negotiator can review the file and hopefully accept and approve the offer to prevent foreclosure or bankruptcy. Right?

SHORT SALE LISTING AGENTS: Are you doing everything you can to sell this property?

We know the importance of pictures, visual tours, staging, etc in marketing a property for sale.

But if the listing agent doesn't take a single picture of the property, how does that reflect on that agent's ability to market, much less aggressively push the short sale process?

And agents, if you're not members of the local MLS where your listing appears, have you thought about either referring out the listing to someone who is, or get a reciprocal agreement so that your listing appears on the local MLS?

SHORT SALE LISTING SHOULD BE HANDLED AS DELICATELY AS A REGULAR LISTING

Yes, we know. It takes a lot of work and a long time to get a short sale approved and accepted, if a all. But these property owners entrusted us to help them sell their property to save them from a more financially disastrous situation.

If you can't give these folks the same care and respect as your regular listing, then for goodness sakes, don't take the listing.

Give it to someone who truly gives a damn!

RANT! RANT! RANT!

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