Pam Dent - REALTOR Charlottesville Virginia Homes and Horse Farms

Hot off the presses - the CAAR 3rd Quarter market Report.

CAAR Market Report

2009 After 3 Quarters

Published by the Charlottesville Area Association of REALTORS®

Where Are We Now?

Home sales, compared to 2008, showed improvement in the 3^rd Quarter. At mid-year, sales were down 28%, but after the first 9 months of the year, sales are only 19% below the 2008 levels. In the third quarter, sales (845) were only down 6.2% from the same period in 2008 (901). This is the smallest year over year decline we have seen in several quarters in the Charlottesville area. July and August monthly sales were very close to 2008 levels, but September fell back a bit.

As reported in the CAAR Mid-Year Market Report, significantly lower home prices (down 20% or more) are driving the pick-up in sales. In addition, the $8,000 tax credit for first time buyers has supercharged the sale of starter homes (below $300,000). 65% of home sales in the third quarter were in this starter home category, which is consistent with the overall trend for the entire year. The surge in first-time buyers is also a national trend.

Home Sales for the First Nine Months

There were 2,001 homes sold in the Charlottesville area during the first nine months of 2009, which was down 19.1% (-471 sales) from 2008. All local areas are still down from last year: Albemarle -5.4%, Charlottesville -27.4%, Fluvanna -25.3%, Greene -7.7%, Louisa -28.9%, Nelson -25.8%, and Orange -25.5%. Monthly sales for the region had improved slightly each month since November 2008, but that string was broken in August due to normal seasonal swings.

Sales in the Central Valley region were generated from the Greater Augusta MLS, which has more complete data on the Valley market than the CAAR MLS. Sales were down in the Valley by 18.5 % compared to last year.

Year to Date (Thru September)
County	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009
Albemarle	1585	1365	1192	837	792
Charlottesville	439	667	516	489	355
Fluvanna	505	423	344	253	189
Greene	238	236	161	142	131
Louisa	184	172	155	166	118
Nelson	299	182	143	124	92
Orange	104	91	92	66	47
Area Total*	3670	3540	3045	2472	2001
Central Valley**				811	661

*includes sales outside the counties listed

**numbers courtesy of the Greater Augusta MLS

Have Home Prices Dropped?

Based on the data from the CAAR MLS, we believe that the numbers clearly show a significant decrease in home prices. The median prices listed below are the middle of the market of properties that sold. Simply put, this is an indication of what buyers were willing/able to pay and is not a true reflection of individual home prices. It is probably safe to assume that a steady, year-to-year decrease in the median price is a good indication that prices are going down, but it is not an exact measurement.

We believe the numbers displayed below provide compelling evidence that our local real estate market has experienced a noteworthy drop in home prices. The CAAR market reports have been discussing this trend since the Fall of 2007, and this report shows more evidence of the decline. The one caveat that we need to make is that part of this median price decline is a reflection of an increase in home sales in the lower price ranges. Of the 845 homes that sold in the 3^rd quarter, 545 were sold for $300,000 or less. This surge in the lower end of the market will naturally pull the median price down.

Overall, the median home price (including attached homes) declined $17,100 (-6.4%) compared to the first nine months of last year. For the first time, the quarterly report shows that the area median price actually dropped below the 2005 median price. All areas covered in this report showed a decline except for Nelson, which remained flat. Median price changes for each locality were as follows: Albemarle (-9.5%), Charlottesville (-6.8%), Fluvanna (-17.1%), Greene (-4.5%), Louisa (-16.7%), Nelson (0%), Orange (-28.7%) and the Valley (-8.7%).

Median Sales Prices

Year to Date (Thru September)
County	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009
Albemarle	$282,600	$317,000	$308,095	$315,000	$285,000
Charlottesville	$247,950	$239,000	$278,000	$265,000	$247,000
Fluvanna	$228,300	$242,900	$255,000	$244,900	$202,900
Greene	$232,429	$271,315	$278,000	$265,000	$253,000
Louisa	$204,153	$234,481	$258,900	$249,450	$207,750
Nelson	$297,000	$293,750	$305,000	$300,000	$300,000
Orange	$210,000	$269,000	$271,500	$217,500	$155,000
Area Median*	$253,000	$269,900	$275,000	$267,000	$249,900
Central Valley**				$212,708	$194,308

*includes sales outside the counties listed

**numbers courtesy of the Greater Augusta MLS (note: these are average prices, not median)

2009

2007

2008

2006

2005

Price Per Square Foot (Finished)

Another indicator that allows us to see the decline in home prices is a major drop in the price per square foot numbers. The average price per square foot of finished space in homes is not a scientific number, but a downward trend over the years clearly indicates a decrease in prices (and vice versa). According to the chart below, prices peaked in 2006 and have declined for the past three years. There has been a $32 per square foot drop since the peak in 2006. The current $145 per square foot is the lowest number since 2004.

Price Per Finished Square Foot

Year to Date (Thru September)
County	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009
Albemarle	164	176	175	169	152
Charlottesville	171	204	195	188	172
Fluvanna	128	142	141	135	121
Greene	138	157	152	145	131
Louisa	129	147	149	135	115
Nelson	201	211	208	192	176
Orange	135	167	170	132	110
Area Average*	157	172	168	160	145
Central Valley**				136	121

*includes sales outside the counties listed

**based on CAAR MLS data

Inventory of Homes for Sale

The inventory of homes for sale in the Charlottesville has continued to decline very slowly. As we have reported for the past several quarters, the excess of inventory is causing many of the problems with our local housing market. Until we are able to reduce the number of homes for sale, we will continue to be in a strong buyer's market with soft home prices and very creative incentives. That's good for buyers, but it is not any better for the long-term housing market than the strong seller's market we experienced just a few years ago.

Currently, we have 3,425 homes on the market, compared to 3,519 at this time last year. This small decrease from last year is a positive sign, but we have a long way to go before we see appropriate inventory levels in the 2,000 to 2,500 range. The median price of homes currently for sale is $294,900, which is $21,350 less than last year. The average DOM (days on market) of these homes is 159 days, which is six days less than last year and 40 days more than homes that have sold. The most telling statistic related to homes currently on the market is that the average price per square foot is $201 compared to $145 for homes that have sold in the first 9 months of 2009.

Housing affordability is the positive aspect of this market. There are 879 homes for sale $200,000 or less with an average DOM of 137 and an average price per square foot of $145. There are 270 homes currently on the market priced at a million dollars or more with an average DOM of 244.

Days on Market (DOM)

In this market, the average days a property stays on the market is less important than it would be in a more balanced market. There are many variables in the marketplace - excess, inventory, foreclosures, short sale, and financing issues - that affect the length of time a property is on the market. The local area actually saw a decrease in the 3^rd quarter (down from 125 days at mid-year) which may indicate we are finding an equilibrium of sorts. Even in this market, the best way to shorten the days your property is on the market is to price it correctly.

Average DOM (Thru September)
County	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009
Albemarle	52	62	89	114	103
Charlottesville	53	54	71	112	120
Fluvanna	58	74	86	124	124
Greene	60	77	90	102	98
Louisa	93	87	129	113	126
Nelson	70	86	108	139	161
Orange	81	77	105	140	138
Area Average*	62	70	91	118	119
Central Valley**				139	148

*includes sales outside the counties listed

**numbers courtesy of the Greater Augusta MLS

New Construction Still Slow

It is important to note that many "new" homes are not included in CAAR MLS statistics. It is very common for a buyer to contact a builder directly to custom build a home. With that said, the historical perspective of the pace of new home sales gives us a reasonably good picture of the market for new construction. As the chart below shows, new home sales are still struggling and until the inventory of re-sale homes for sale declines, new construction will lag.

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Condos and Townhomes (Attached Homes)

The sale of attached homes is only reported in Charlottesville and Albemarle because very few properties in this category are located in other counties, except Nelson. Since the condos in Nelson are primarily in the Wintergreen Resort market, we have decided not to include them in this report. One of the more interesting numbers in this report is the increase in the sale of attached homes in Albemarle that first showed up in the 2009 1^st Quarter Market Report. Charlottesville attached home sales are down 34.4%, while Albemarle sales are up 9.1% compared to 2008. The chart below shows the attached homes sold in 2009 compared to past years. Inventory levels of attached homes for sale are still high (over 600), with an average DOM of 199 for properties currently on the market. The median price of an attached home currently on the market is $219,900. The median price for an attached home that sold in the first nine months of 2009 is $221,500 for Albemarle and $218,950 for Charlottesville.

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Conclusions and Predictions

We can draw a few general conclusions from the numbers in this report. First, prices of homes in the Charlottesville area have fallen substantially in 2009. Second, due to excess inventory, we are still in a strong buyer's market. Third, some areas of this report show a positive or at least stabilizing trend - sales are doing better compared to last year, DOM has flat-lined, and condo sales in Albemarle are rebounding.

The next quarter should continue an improvement in the market compared to 2008. During the 4^th quarter of 2009, we will likely see a year-to-year sales improvement, but only because the 4^th quarter of 2008 was so bad it will be hard not to beat. 2009 may even catch up with sales from 2008 by the end of the year. Additional declines in prices are possible, but it will be hard to tell if these price drops are a result of more sellers finally pricing their properties based on the current market, or a real decline in home values. Only time, and future market reports, will reveal this to us.

This Quarterly Market Report is produced by the Charlottesville Area Association of REALTORS^® using data from the CAAR MLS and the Greater Augusta MLS where noted. For more information on this report or the real estate market, pick up a copy of the CAAR Real Estate Weekly, visit www.caar.com, or contact your REALTOR^®.

This Albemarle County real estate market report is a special request and will focus on sales of luxury homes priced at over $1,000,000.

Yesterday a reader of my market reports called me and requested information on home sales in Albemarle County for homes priced at over $1,000,000. So this report is for her. If you have a specific price range, subdivision, or area that you would like a market report on, I would be happy to make one for you.

In September in the over 1 million dollar price range there were not any homes sold in Albemarle County.

In August, 5 Albemarle County luxury homes sold. The average sale price was $1,640,500. The homes had been on the market for an average of 202 days and sold for an average of 86.94% of the list price.

In July 4 luxury homes had contracts that closed. The homes sold for an average of $3,150,000 and had been on the market for an average of 371 days. They sold for an average of 80.15% of the list price.

And in June, 3 Albemarle County homes sold in the over $1 million price range. The average sale price was $1,155,000 with an average DOM of 20 days. They sold for an average of 88.24% of the list price.

Today there are 125 Albemarle County luxury homes for sale. They are listed for an average list price of $3,239,437 with a median of $1,695,000 and have been on the market for an averge of 278 days so far.

This year to date 27 luxury homes have sold in the Albemarle County Real Estate Market. This represents a decline in sales of -32.5% from the sale period last year.

These figures are from the mls and while they are assumed to be correct, they are not guaranteed.

Contact Pam Dent, e-PRO, SRES, NHD, REALTOR®, Real Estate III, Charlottesville, Virginia at 434 960-0161 to buy a property in the following areas in Central Virginia: Charlottesville, Albemarle County, Keswick, Glenmore, Ivy, Crozet, Earlysville, Free Union, Cismont, Scottsville, Fluvanna County, Palmyra, Lake Monticello, Louisa County, Louisa, Mineral, Spring Creek, Orange County, Gordonsville, Orange, Barboursville, Greene County, Ruckersville. Email Pam Dent.

View all of the Charlottesville Virginia homes for sale.

View my website Charlottesville Horse Farms or visit my other blog Charlottesville Horse Farms and Country Homes for more information on Charlottesville Virginia horse farms, homes, events and real estate.

Copyright © 2009 by Pam Dent, all rights reserved, "Albemarle County Real Estate Market Report - Luxury Homes".

This Charlottesville VA real estate market report will look at the sales of single family detached homes within the city limits of Charlottesville during the month of September. We will see how the September sales compare with the previous two months and also what has happened in the year to date.

21 Charlottesville homes had contracts that closed in September 2009. They sold for an average price of $307,010 which was an average of 97.28% of the list price. The homes had been on the market for an average of 79 days before going under contract.

In August 2009, 25 Charlottesville VA homes sold for an average price of $340,642. They had been on the market for an average of 101 days and sold for an average of 97.61% of the list price.

July saw the greatest number of home sales with 51 Charlottesville homes selling. They sold for an average price of $296,652 which was an average of 95.14% of the list price. The average DOM was 81.

Today, 10/4/2009 there are 186 Charlottesville VA homes for sale. They are listed at an average price of $358,569 with a median of $299,900 and have been on the market for an average of 163 days so far.

To look at the bigger picture we will compare the year to date figures from this year and 2008. From 1/1/2008-10/2/1008, 301 homes sold on the Charlottesville VA real estate market, but during the same time frame this year only 231 Charlottesville homes have sold. This represents a decline in sales of -23.3%.

it is not unusual to see home sales drop off in August, but I would have hoped for a bigger boost to the Charlottesville real estate market from first time homebuyers purchasing homes before the $8,000 tax credit runs out. They will only have until October 15 to get a home under contract if they want to have a good chance to be able to close before the November 30 deadline. I am afraid that many of them do not realize that the home must be closed by November 30 and more importantly they do not understand how long it takes to get a home to close. In todays market it is taking about 45-60 days to get a home from contract to closing. We are seeing FHA and VA loans take longer than conventional loans. So if you are a first time homebuyer the clock is ticking!

The above figures are from the mls and while they are deemed correct, they are not guaranteed.

Contact Pam Dent, e-PRO, SRES, NHD, REALTOR®, Real Estate III, Charlottesville, Virginia at 434 960-0161 to buy a property in the following areas in Central Virginia: Charlottesville, Albemarle County, Keswick, Glenmore, Ivy, Crozet, Earlysville, Free Union, Cismont, Scottsville, Fluvanna County, Palmyra, Lake Monticello, Louisa County, Louisa, Mineral, Spring Creek, Orange County, Gordonsville, Orange, Barboursville, Greene County, Ruckersville. Email Pam Dent.

View all of the Charlottesville Virginia homes for sale.

View my website Charlottesville Horse Farms or visit my other blog Charlottesville Horse Farms and Country Homes for more information on Charlottesville Virginia horse farms, homes, events and real estate.

Copyright © 2009 by Pam Dent, all rights reserved, "Charlottesville VA Real Estate Market Report - September 2009".

This Albemarle County VA real estate market report will follow the sales of single family detached homes in the county of Albemarle during September 2009.

43 Albemarle County VA homes had contracts that closed during the month of September. They sold for an average of $378,382 after having been on the market for an average of 121 days. The homes sold for an average of 94.51% of the list price.

September sales were down from the 73 homes that sold during August for an average of $473,334. The homes had been on the market for an average of 98 days and sold for an average of 93.08% of the list price.

July was the peak sales month of the year so far with 107 Albemarle County homes selling at an average sale price of $493,980. The homes had been on the market for an average of 114 days and sold for an average of 90.98% of the list price.

On 10/2/2009, there were 648 Albemarle County VA homes for sale at an average price of $990,806 and a median of $475,400. The homes have been on the market for an average of 177 days so far.

Lets look at the bigger picture and see how this years Albemarle County real estate market compares with the year to date sales from 2008. From 1/1/2008-10/2/2008, 569 homes sold in Albemarle County VA, however during the same period this year only 493 Albemarle County homes sold. This represents a decline in sales of -13.4%.

As you can see the Albemarle County real estate market still has a ways to go before it has recovered. August has traditionally been a slow sales month, but I would have liked to see a stronger September, particularly with time running out on the $8,000 First Time Homebuyers Tax Credit. Since the home sales must be closed by November 30, with the current amount of time that it is taking to get loan approval and then on to closing, first time homebuyers only have another two weeks to get a home under contract. It is taking from 45-60 days in today's market to get a home to closing. This is due to the longer time frame that we are seeing for loan approval.

The above figures are from the local mls and while they are assumed correct, they are not guaranteed.

Contact Pam Dent, e-PRO, SRES, NHD, REALTOR®, Real Estate III, Charlottesville, Virginia at 434 960-0161 to buy a property in the following areas in Central Virginia: Charlottesville, Albemarle County, Keswick, Glenmore, Ivy, Crozet, Earlysville, Free Union, Cismont, Scottsville, Fluvanna County, Palmyra, Lake Monticello, Louisa County, Louisa, Mineral, Spring Creek, Orange County, Gordonsville, Orange, Barboursville, Greene County, Ruckersville. Email Pam Dent.

View all of the Charlottesville Virginia homes for sale.

View my website Charlottesville Horse Farms or visit my other blog Charlottesville Horse Farms and Country Homes for more information on Charlottesville Virginia horse farms, homes, events and real estate.

Copyright © 2009 by Pam Dent, all rights reserved, "Albemarle County VA Real Estate Market Report - September 2009".

This Louisa County VA real estate market report will examine the sales of single family detached homes during August 2009 in Louisa County Virginia.

17 homes sold in Louisa County during the month of August. The average sale price was $272,530 with an average list price of $281,932. The homes had been on the market for an average of 148 days and sold for an average of 96.67% of the list price.

In July 22 Louisa County homes sold with an average sale price of $244,667 and an average list price of $253,723 after being on the market for an average of 165 days. They sold for an average of 96.43% of the list price.

In June 17 Louisa County homes had contracts that closed. The average sale price was $196,226 and the average list price was $205,572. The homes were on the market for an average of 136 daysand sold for an average of 95.45% of the list price.

Today September 27, 2009 there are 195 Louisa County VA homes for sale on the Louisa County real estate market. The average list price is $359,589 with a median of $244,500. The homes have been on the market for an average of 175 days so far.

Examining the year to date sales as compared with 2008 will give us more information regarding the trend of the Louisa County real estate market. Between 1/1/2008 and 9/1/2008, 234 homes sold in Louisa County, but during the same period this year only 184 homes sold. This represent a decline in sales of -21.4%.

If we go by the August rate of sales, it would take 12.45 months to sell the inventory that is on the market. 6 months of inventory represents a balanced market, so the Louisa County real estate market has quite a ways to go toward recovery. If you do not need to sell right now, it would be best to wait. If you do have to sell right away, pricing and condition are crucial.

The above figures are from the mls and while they are assumed correct are not guaranteed.

Contact Pam Dent, e-PRO, SRES, NHD, REALTOR®, Real Estate III, Charlottesville, Virginia at 434 960-0161 to buy a property in the following areas in Central Virginia: Charlottesville, Albemarle County, Keswick, Glenmore, Ivy, Crozet, Earlysville, Free Union, Cismont, Scottsville, Fluvanna County, Palmyra, Lake Monticello, Louisa County, Louisa, Mineral, Spring Creek, Orange County, Gordonsville, Orange, Barboursville, Greene County, Ruckersville. Email Pam Dent.

View all of the Charlottesville Virginia homes for sale.

View my website Charlottesville Horse Farms or visit my other blog Charlottesville Horse Farms and Country Homes for more information on Charlottesville Virginia horse farms, homes, events and real estate.

Copyright © 2009 by Pam Dent, all rights reserved, "Louisa County VA Real Estate market Report - August 2009".