Patrick Harfst, CRS

Remember the movie The Cooler? In that film, a down-on-his-luck type is hired by a casino to "cool off" a hot gambler, simply by standing near the guy at the tables... In a reverse-cooler sense, I have had the odd fortune this week of writing not one, but two offers on homes (different homes, different buyers) that had been on the market for a long time. In both cases, another offer came in between the time we looked at the home and the time we submitted the offer. Not competing offers per se, just the odd timing that comes with a buyer looking favorably at a home... then a day or so later submitting an offer, only to find that another offer had been submitted (and accepted) by the sellers just a day earlier... If this happens a third time in the next few days, I'm buying a lottery ticket!

We just don't know how far away it is.

Yeah, that bit of info helps a lot, right? I see it all the time - articles that someone, somewhere, typed out into a news story, an article in a weekly magazine, or on some website. I've been seeing these rosy little missives for years now. So, where is this miraculous recovery? Next quarter? Next year? Where?? When?? Keep reading...

Being raised by an engineer has its good points. It made me want to go get a technical science degree, although I seldom use it. Made me analytical, tho, and I love to juggle data. Here is some of that data...

Notice the percentages... The bulk of all the sales that are happening, involve distressed properties. Many of these are short sales, and will not close as they are currently set - the home will still end up as a full bank repo, but ultimately, will be sold. What this data tells me is that there ARE in fact buyers out there, and to have a good chance of selling, a seller should change their name to "BANK" or "Short Sale". I'm kidding, sort of. The MLS data further shows that the great majority of these sales are taking place in the "under-200" price range. In some areas, homes are selling for $50 per sq ft.

So, when is this recovery coming? When the backlog of distressed properties gets a whole lot smaller. Until then, we are going to see more of this. My bet is later this year. We are in the darkest part of the market... All uphill from here, hopefully. If you are a seller, I'm here to help. The data cannot be ignored. If you are a buyer, same answer. You, the buyer, get to take advantage of a beautiful market. Dig in!

Patrick Harfst, CRS

www.ArizonaHomeLocator.com

Proving that the earth is flat, and hell has frozen over, a local homebuilder recently (January 09) called a buyer who was about ready to close on his new home, and asked him to re-sign papers, as they'd had a price increase, and wanted him to pay the new higher price. Incredible? You bet... Except it did not happen quite that way...

In reality, the homebuilder had lowered the price they were offering new customers, and were asking the buyer already under contract to sign papers to reflect the lower price... And this happened AFTER the final walk-thru, AFTER the loan docs were signed, AFTER the buyer had his funds deposited, and just a day or two before the keys were to be delivered... This price change was $13,500 on a $240,000 sales price...

Could the homebuilder have just kept quiet? Sure... There was $13,500 in it for them to do nothing. Was taking this action the right thing to do? Probably... Buyers talk, at the pool, the mailbox, etc., and word gets around...

Take home lesson? In challenging times, some find it easy to compromise their ethics. Here was a builder who chose to do the right thing, seemingly without even looking for publicity. They have not asked me to promote them, but I will. When so many builders operate without a shred of conscience, hiding behind bankruptcy laws when it suits them, re-emerging with a slightly changed name, ready to have their way with the next group of buyers, it is a pleasure to find a builder who stands tall, takes responsibility for their actions, and does the right thing... Oh yes... the builder? K Hovnanian Homes, one of the largest builders in the country. They get it...