Phil Booker

October posted a negative -18% in listing production for the month of October. This follows a-17% in listing production in the month of September. As bad as this looks it will help correct the overall reduction in sales per month. Thus, keeping the listings to sales ratio relatively at the same spread so we might be able to stay in a prosperity market ( where there as many homes for sale as there are buyers for those homes ) which will help ward off a buyers market. As much as this consistant lose of listings for September and October looks scary it really only amounts to a -7% listing reduction year over year. Because this trend will continue for the rest of the year we will see about a -10% year to year reduction of both listings and sales. This prediction is contrary to this weeks newspaper report which predicts a stronger 2010 market. Although, we will have a relatively good 2010 market I don't see anything strong enough happening in our economy to change my belief that our average dollar production will coninue to decline -10% for 2010. Well, actually this is not so bad as we are riding a boom market this last 10 years so even if we go down 10% in volume we will still be doing just fine.

Sales for October are pleasantly pleasing as they are up 14% over last October. Wow, who would have ever believed that? Our unit sales however are down -3% over last October. Again this is still good in a recessionary market, don't you think? Our year over year production to October is at +2% over last year. Every indication is that November and December should produce about the same. We will see!

To help keep things in perspective lets look at the dollar volume over the last three years. In 2007 October produced $28,829,665, 2008 produced 20,551,809 ( a 29% reduction ), 2009 October produced a 23,399,643 ( a 19% reduction over 2007 ). So you can see that our sales are gradually decreasing from the boom year of 2007. I believe that this trend will continue over the next 5 years where we will probably level out at $20,000,000 months for October.

Well, Folks, you can see we are pleasantly pleased with our year to year volume. The market is still very active and it looks like this trend will continue throughout the rest of the year. There are still some great buys out there so Buyers take note and buy a home for a Christmas present this year. You will be glad you did!!! Interest rates are still at an all time low @ 3.99% as I write this today. Talk to you next month.

WELL FOLKS, SEPTEMBER IS UPON US AND THE CRACKS IN OUR PRODUCTION FOR 2009 ARE STARTING TO SHOW. BOTH IN LISTING PRODUCTION AND SALE PRODUCTION. LISTINGS POSTED A -17% REDUCTION FOR SEPTEMBER WHICH WIPES OUT OUR BEAUTIFUL INCREASE 16% IN AUGUST. BUT AGAIN, WE STILL SHOW A VERY CONSISTANT -4% YEAR OVER YEAR REDUCTION FROM LAST YEAR. LOOK FOR A GOOD OCTOBER LISTING FRENZY AND I BELIEVE A CONSISTANT -9% YEAR OVER YEAR BY DECEMBER END.

OUR SALES ON THE OTHER HAND WILL HAVE A MAJOR NEGATIVE CORRECTION IN THE LAST QUARTER OF THIS YEAR. POSSIBLY IN THE -10% TO -15% YEAR OVER YEAR. THIS SAID, SEPTEMBER SURELY ISN'T TOO BAD YET, POSTING A SMALL UNIT REDUCTION OF -9% FOR SEPTEMBER AND A POSITIVE DOLLAR VOLUME OF 1% YEAR OVER YEAR. ACTUALLY, OCTOBER IS NOT LOOKING THAT BAD EITHER AND IT IS EXPECTED TO YIELD A 1% GAIN OVER LAST OCTOBER.

FOLKS ALTHOUGH YEAR TO DATE WE HAVE EXPERIENCED A FANTASTICALLY CONSISTANT BANNER YEAR WE HAVE TO BE REALISTIC AND SEE THAT SUPPLY HAS ALL BUT PAST DEMAND AND THAT WE WILL BE QUICKLY SUBMERGED IN A BUYERS MARKET THIS FALL. THUS SALES WILL BE SLOWED SUBSTANTIALLY AS BUYERS WILL BE EXPECTING A MAJOR REDUCTION IN PURCHASE PRICE WHICH THE VENDORS WILL NOT BE PREPARED TO ACCEPT. IT HAD TO COME SOMETIME SO BE PREPARED TO WORK YOUR DEALS HARD THIS WINTER IN ORDER TO EXACT A SALE TO FRUITION.

AGENTS PREPARE YOURSELF AS THIS BUYERS MARKET THIS FALL WILL HAVE A NEGATIVE IMPACT ON YOU INDIVIDUALLY AND YOU WILL SEE MANY OF YOUR FELLOW REAL ESTATE ASSOCIATES LEAVING THE BUSINESS OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS. SORRY, BUT THIS ALWAYS HAPPENS WHEN ONE HAS TO WORK A LOT HARDER THAN YOU WOULD EVER IMAGINE TO EXACT THAT SALE. FOR-WARNED IS FOR-ARMED. I THINK YOU WILL SEE EXACTLY WHAT I AM TALKING ABOUT BY YEAR END. OOHHH BUT I TOO HOPE I AM WRONG!!! DO CHECK MY BLOG AT YEAR END TO SEE AND PLAN TO PLAN, IN WRITING YOUR PRODUCTION GOALS FOR 2010. THIS IS THE ONLY WAY TO BE ASSURED OF YOUR TARGET OBJECTIVES. PREPARE YOURSELF. GOOD LUCK.

SURPRISE, SURPRISE! LISTINGS FOR AUGUST HAVE REDUCED A -16% DEFICIT IN JULY TO 0% IN AUGUST. THIS IS AN INDICATION THAT SALES FOR THIS FALL SHOULD BE QUITE STRONG. HOWEVER, MY GUESS IS THAT A STRONG LISTING MONTH OF AUGUST SHOULD BE SHOWING A STRONG CORRECTION IN SEPTEMBER. WE WILL SEE. NEVER THE LESS, OUR YEAR OVER YEAR STATS SHOW A CONSISTANT -4%. NEXT MONTH IT SHOULD BE ABOUT THE SAME. OUR CURRENT LISTING PORTFOLIO IS STILL 2464 ACTIVE LISTINGS. THIS IS VERY CONSISTANT WITH PREVIOUS YEARS.

OUR SALES UNITS FOR AUGUST DID IN FACT HAVE THE EXPECTED FALL OF -9% FOR AUGUST TO MAKE UP FOR OUR FANTASTIC MONTH OF JULY. THAT'S OKAY AS SALE UNITS YEAR OVER YEAR ARE CONSISTANTLY AT -4%. AGAIN, THE MONTH OF AUGUST IS DOWN -9% IN DOLLAR VOLUME AS EXPECTED. HOWEVER, THE YEAR OVER YEAR VOLUME IS UP 2% OVER LAST YEAR. WHICH IS FANTASTIC.

WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE VERY STRONG FREDERICTON MARKET WITH EMPLOYEMENT AT AN ALL TIME HIGH AND PLENTY OF INFRA-STRUCTURE PROJECTS HAPPENING ALL OVER THE PLACE WE CAN FEEL VERY CONFIDENT THAT 2009 IS DOING JUST GREAT.

INTEREST RATES ARE AT AN ALL TIME LOW, SO BUYERS TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE WONDERFUL OPPORTUNITY TO INVEST IN HOME OWNERSHIP. YOU DESERVE IT!!!

Wow! What a fantastic month of July. I Believe the cool weather did us a favour by keeping our consumer buying real estate rather than going to the cottage every weekend. So for that maybe rain is good for something other than watering the flowers? Imagine, 5 days of sunshine in the whole month of July. It never happened before in my lifetime. Enough!!!

July listings are down 16% which hauls the year to year listings down to -5%. This is very consistant with years past. So no big surprises there. However, sales are quite another thing. Unit sales for the month of July have posted a 15% increase over last year. This gives us a year to year total sales to date just down -3%. That's not bad at all. Dollar volume for July is up 25% over last year. Fantastic! So our year over year production in dollar volume is up +3% over last year. That is an amazing surprise, even for me. We have never had a July like this in my 40 years of selling real eatate. Now they are saying that all markets are prone to get even better in the months ahead.Wow! Actually, here I go again. My prediction is that we probably posted most of our August sales during July also, thus sales will likely be down porportionally for the month of August. Sorry, but I just don't see this upward trend holding for the rest of the year.

Never the less, what a beautiful year we are having in the real estate business in Fredericton. Our economy is srong, businesses are booming, construction in the city is off the charts, the city never looked so prosperous. Finally the sun is shining down on us for, hopefully, at least August and maybe even throughout September. So buyers and sellers get out there and take advantage of our low, low interest rates and prosperity market to BUY, BUY, BUY. Cheers, until next month.

As we expected the month of June has also posted a -3% drop in listing activity, as did May. This will stay quite consistant with last years listing portfolio throughout the rest of this year. No suprises there.

However, we are blown away by the fantastic June production of unit sales which increased from May's -13% to only a -7% in June.The dollar volume did even better increasing from May's -7% to June's +0% for year over year from 2008. This is spectacular in a market that has been increasing consistantly for the past 10 years with no letup in sight. It's fair to say we have a very special city here and a lot of people are recognizing the value of living in a clean, safe and beautiful environment where housing prices are consistantly far below the North American price trend. The young people today have taken a paradigm shift with their family values and what they believe is important to them. Family more than job advancement. Meaning that, yes, less is more, and better. Well, that's my philosophizing for the day.

Consumers, now is the time to capitalize on the most valueable asset you can ever own, your home. Good shopping, be smart and take advantage of these low, low interest rates which will probably not be around for very much longer. Talk to you next month. Consumers look up the definition of the word capitalize and you will act now! Just a thought. Cheers!!!