Phil Booker

As we continue into Summer and our typical booming sales season things just keep getting better and better! Wow, we are sooo lucky in Fredericton, the city of Stately Elms. What a real estate haven!

Now for the facts. Our listings are averaging only a -3% drop and have been quite consistantly throughout the year. We should expect the same average drop for the rest of the year.

Sales in units has increased year over year from a -15% in April to a -13% for May. This should improve more as we move into June. Our dollar volume of sales has improved substantially year over year from -12% in April to only a -7% in May. That is almost a 50% increase in sales from month to month. The activity now is unprecedented in a global market now in a recession. The real irony is that June even expects to be better.

Housing has become everyones dream and just about eveyone imployed seems to be motivated to aquire that dream. As real estate agents lets help them achieve!

Well, well, well things are improving as we see the Spring sales getting ever so gradually better and better. This is so typical of the Fredericton Market where each month from January to June we see gradual improvement quite consistantly year after year.

We can readily see that April sales volume has improved from a -16% in March to a -12% in April. Unit sales have increased from a -20% in March to a -15% in April. Listings are holding constant at a -3% month to month. This represents a very gradual slowing of our market so that it is not visable to the average consumer. In fact the decrease in our market is so subliminal that the unit price in Fredericton is still going up as the buyer here believes we are in a prosperity market.

Again, I believe this gradual increase in production will continue into June. Thus having our market end up with a -10% year over year. The residential market will continue to hold it's own, however, the commercial market is doing very well as we see many substantial buildings being erected as I write this.

So Folks, look for a continued market improvement as we approach summer. We still can see lots of opportunity out there for your main cliental, the " first time home buyer". Good luck and have a great summer.

Talk to you in May end.

We have some good news for March 2009. Sales have picked up substancially throughout the month. In

fact they increased 18% over March of last year. Now that the snow banks have receeded March sales

have gone a long way to correct the snowy January and February shortfall from the same periods over last year.

This dropped the per centage of dollar volume down, year over year from -35% to -16%. I suspect that this -16%/month

will stick around throughout April, May and June. The overall correction should level out at -10% year over

year, by July or August stats.

The good news is that we are experiencing a relatively strong stable real estate market and there is

nothing in the high water mark future that suggests anything but good times to come.

So with the Government's new home buyer incentive and the lowest interests in history @ 3.69% for 5

year term, we should have hoards of smart buyers on the market this Spring and throughout the year.

Talk to you all at April month end and enjoy the buzz of sales as we spring into Spring. Cheers, Phil.

Let's look at what happened in the Fredericton Market in February 2009 and Year to Date

2009 2008 % OF DECREASE/INCREASE YEAR TO DATE

Total listings for February 344 423 - 19 %

Total listings YTD 812 979 - 17 %

Total Sales for February 104 175 - 41 %

Total Sales YTD 185 295 - 37 %

Total Dollsr Volume for February - 43 %

Total Dollar Volume YTD -35 %

As one can see the Fredericton Market is not only not improving, it has gone down from January's 25% decrease to a February decrease of 43%. This gives an overall Year to Date decrease of 35%. Hopefully, this trend will not continue. However, I don't see anything in the immediate future that will reverse this current trend.

All we can hope is the cause of these extreme deductions in sales is perpetuated by the continuous snowy weather and not the Doom and Gloom predictions of the economic climate. My feel is that it is probably both at a 50%/50% split. If I am right that should make about a 50% correction by June to an average overall decrease of around 17%. So with the boom market we have been experiencing for the past 3 or 4 years we should not plan to panic just yet.

Also, with better weather in the forcast and the $750 government grant for first time home buyers things should start to pick up in March.

Lastly, even with the decrease in overall real estate production the market value is holding strong and properties are selling at either full price or just about 3% less than full price. Go figure???

This sure is a very unorthodox business! Which, I guess is what makes it so fascinating. Talk to you at March end?

FREDERICTON MARKET FOR JANUARY 2009

Fredericton market to date indicates the severity of the American and Global recession. The stats for January 2009, which I share with you today, gives us a birds-eye view of what the real estate market will do in 2009. Forwarned is forarmed. I believe we are heading into a very strong buyers market as early as April of this year. Supply and Demand. If you have lots of listings and few buyers it makes sense that buyers will experience some fantastic buys throughout the year. Let's look at the stats so far for January 09.

Total # of Listings year to date= 468 a drop of 16%

Total # of Sales year to date = 80 a drop of 33%

Total Sales Dollar Volume year to date= $ 11,937,050 a drop of 25%

With sales in a free fall of twice that of listings. It is a good bet that there will be a lot of good opportunities for the smart buyers to cash in on a profit bonanza. So far this year the 33% decrease in sales is 3 times what I predicted on December 31,2008. It is also very likely that other cities across Canada are experiencing this same trend and maybe even more so as one goes west. Vendors should take heed and make sure they do not over price their property and lose the best market in the Spring.

With this market edge that the buyers have, plus the $ 750.00 the Federal Government is promising " First Time Home Buyers " we should expect to see these young buyers as our majority of purchasers throughout 2009.

Check back with me at the end of February and we will see if this trend persists.