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Mary Pope-Handy, ABR, CRS, ePRO, SRES

The Los Gatos Real Estate Market, Stats and Trends in June 2009

The Los Gatos real estate market is not a unified "block" so much as it is a collection of micromarkets, a conglomeration of smaller markets by price point, school district, acreage, type of housing, and many other factors.

The overview is one indicator of the health of the community's real estate generally, but it may or may not be relavent to your home's pocket, or the neighborhood into which you'd like to purchase.

I. General Trends in the Los Gatos Real Estate Market (real estate "area 16", zip codes 95030 and 95032)

Los Gatos Houses - May 2009 Statistics and Trends

Trends At a Glance May 2009 Previous Month Year-over Year
Median Price $1,012,000 $955,000 (+6.0%) $1,377,500 (-26.5%)
Average Price $1,111,280 $1,035,330 (+7.3%) $1,438,880 (-22.8%)
No. of Sales 20 25 (-20.0%) 36 (-44.4%)
Pending Properties 37 26 (+42.3%) 37 (0.0%)
Active 160 170 (-5.9%) 163 (-1.8%)
Sale vs. List Price 95.6% 95.0% (+0.5%) 97.5% (-2.0%)
Days on Market 55 54 (+0.7%) 27 (+104.8%)

The months of inventory, or absorption rate, is found by dividing the "actives" by the "solds" in the last month. So the months of inventory in May would be 160/20 = 8 months of inventory. In April it was 170/25 =6.8. So the market has become more of a buyer's market. (Six months is balanced, less is seller's market, more is buyer's market.)

To see the full details for the statistics and trends for Los Gatos single family homes (houses) please visit my online Real Estate Report.

Los Gatos Condominiums and Townhouses - May 2009 Statistics and Trends

Trends At a Glance May 2009 Previous Month Year-over Year
Median Price $587,475 $710,000 (-17.3%) $875,000 (-32.9%)
Average Price $643,738 $700,222 (-8.1%) $890,000 (-27.7%)
No. of Sales 4 9 (-55.6%) 3 (+33.3%)
Pending Properties 5 8 (-37.5%) 10 (-50.0%)
Active 49 51 (-3.9%) 46 (+6.5%)
Sale vs. List Price 97.3% 94.5% (+2.9%) 95.5% (+1.9%)
Days on Market 75 74 (+2.0%) 47 (+60.6%)

Months of inventory (absorption rate) among all condos and townhomes was 49/4 = 12.25 in May and 51/9 = 5.6 for April. Big swing - looks like March was the "hot month" for sales among condos. Some of it may be seasonal fluctuations that will only be really clear when a few more months have passed.

To see the full details for the statistics and trends for Los Gatos condos & townhomes, please visit my online Real Estate Report.

II. Looking at a smaller segment of the market

There's a way we can crunch the numbers on our mls to get some of the smaller sections of the Los Gatos real estate market. It's a bit labor intensive but I have found it useful when looking at some price points, school districts, or both to see what's happening.

Earlier today I did some of this number crunching for a client and thought I'd share it here. In Los Gatos, there are a lot of variables, as mentioned earlier. Perhaps the biggest one is the school district. We have separate districts for elementary/middle schools and high schools. To make it easiest, I'll break it down by high school district (because there are fewer of them - really just two in town). Locals tend to refer to schools that include and feed into Los Gatos High as "in the schools" or "in the district". The other schools, which are in more outlying areas of town, are in the Campbell Union High School District (CUHSD).

What I wanted to know is how the market is for the "under $1 million" homes in Los Gatos. Overall, it's a whole lot better then the rest of the town! The "months of inventory" for Los Gatos overall was 8 months in May, but we see that in the under $1,000,000 group, right now it's a brisk three months! (COE = close of escrow. COE in last 30 days means that there was a completed sale within the last 30 days.)

All of 95030, 95032 Active 33 months of inventory 3
Pending 25 active-pending ratio 1.32 to 1
COE in last 30 days 11
Los Gatos Schools Active 13 months of inventory 4.6
Pending 15 active-pending ratio .86 to 1
COE in last 30 days 3
C'bell Union HSD Active 20 months of inventory 2.5
Pending 10 active-pending ratio 2 to 1
COE in last 30 days 8

What can we tell from this?

First of all, the lowest priced homes in Los Gatos have a much better chance of selling then the higher priced homes. We are seeing this trend across Silicon Valley such that in entry level houses that are aggressively priced, there are multiple offers and overbidding.

Second, these recent closed represent sales that started a month or two ago. Among the closeds, there was a strong buying period in the outlying parts of town. Now, though, we see a stronger movement among homes "in the schools" such that now, more homes are pending then are for sale and available!

Viewing it another way, the ratio between actives and pendings indicates that a large percentage of homes in the Los Gatos School District are selling or will sell right now. With the homes that have the Campbell Union High School District, it's about half. So the "chances of selling" appear to be 50/50.

That's actually not bad - recently, the odds across town for homes selling was only about 19%, or 1 in 5.

Although I have not crunched all the numbers, I suspect that the higher the price point, the more challenging the sale.

Of course, any home can sell in any market if the basics are right: condition, location, pricing, and marketing. You can't do much about the location once you've bought. Everything else, though, can be controlled and adjustments can be made such that a home is sellable, and most of it is in the control of the homeowner.

Whether looking at houses, condos, or townhomes, it's important to get and understand the data not just for Los Gatos as a whole, or your zip code, but for your segment of the market precisely. This is equally true whether you want to buy or sell a Los Gatos home.

Please call or email me for guidance with your particular plans to sell or buy a home!

Silicon Valley Real Estate Market Update for March 2009

How's the Silicon Valley real estate market?

The market is heating up! Anecdotally, my phone is ringing off the hook and my email is jammed with people wanting to discuss home buying and home selling in the San Jose area.I have talked a few sellers out of selling - it's important to be extremely realistic right now since the odds are against selling.

What about pricing for Santa Clara County homes that do sell? Are sales improving? Yes! It's better.

Countywide, home sales increased, year-over-year, by a whopping 30.3% in February. The vast majority of sales are in the lower price ranges. One Realtor friend of mine said to me, "my sales are down, but the price point where I'm selling is REALLY down". That's just the reality of today's market. It's harder to sell a high end home than it is to sell a home under $500,000.

Prices are stabilizing. The median price for single-family, re-sale homes was flat for Santa Clara County at $450,000 compared to January. It's huge that this general number is flat and not falling!

  • for San Jose as a whole, the median list price is down by about 2% and average sales price is up about 2%
  • for Almaden Valley, it's up about 20% for both numbers
  • for Cambrian Park, it's up 2% for median and up 7% for average sales price
  • for Willow Glen, it's up about 28% for both!
  • for Los Gatos, it's negative territory: down 28% for median list price, down 8.6% for average sales price
  • for Saratoga, the numbers are badly skewed since there were NO sales the month before and in the recent month there were a few - so it's up 75% but this is a statistical abberation
  • for Campbell, the numbers are up about 27% for median and up about 8% for average sales price
  • Palo Alto is often the last to crumble and the first to rise. The market there is hopeful but mixed, with the median sales price up 1.6% and the average sales price down 5.6%.

Want more Santa Clara County cities or areas within San Jose? Or want to see data on condos? You can read the full on-line report here: http://popehandy.rereport.com/

If you'd like to read a more in-depth newsletter about current market conditions, please click here: http://rereport.com/scc/print/Mary.PopeHandySCC.pdf.

Selling a home in the west valley? What are the odds your home might sell?

The local paper has been running stories about the real estate market in Santa Clara County and the good news is that many of the bank owned, foreclosed homes are getting bought up. Throughout the Silicon Valley area, about one home in four is selling.

Real estate is local, though. . .much more local that countywide. What is happening in Berryessa or Blossom Valley is interesting, and may have an impact on the local economy and you. But if you live in Los Gatos, Saratoga, Monte Sereno or Almaden Valley, what's happening elsewhere may have little to do with home sales in your immediate zip code or subdivision.

Book on home selling in Silicon Valley, by Mary Pope-Handy and Ken Deshaies

Today on my Live in Los Gatos blog, I posted about home selling in Los Gatos. What are the odds that your Los Gatos home will sell? In the west valley generally (the four areas mentioned above), it runs between about an 8% and 15% chance that a home will sell. The exact chance varies by location, condition, school district, price point, etc. For instance, the very expensive luxury home market (over $3 million or so) is much worse than homes priced between one and two million dollars.

If you are thinking of selling your home in Los Gatos or anywhere nearby, please visit my blog and read today's post: How Hard is it to Sell a Los Gatos Home Now?

What is my Silicon Valley home worth?

Find a home by map!

How is the Saratoga, CA, Real Estate Market Faring?

Every day it seems that our large, local newspaper, The San Jose Mercury News, runs a story on the real estate market. Unfortunately, the news never seems to be good. Today's feature was on home sales in the million plus price range and how the number of those sales has been declining substantially throughout California (down 43%) and in Silicon Valley (down 34%) as well.

Several cities in Santa Clara County offer some lovely homes worth well in excess of one million dollars: Los Gatos, San Jose's Almaden Valley, Monte Sereno, and Saratoga are in good company with other upscale communities featuring high end homes.

Today I posted on the Saratoga real estate market in particular, giving attention to the various price quartiles (segments of the market) and the luxury home market especially.


Median List Price of Saratoga, CA Homes for Sale

To learn more about the real estate market in Saratoga, please visit my Valley of Hearts Delight blog: http://sanjoserealestatelosgatoshomes.com/how-is-the-saratoga-real-estate-market

Monte Sereno Real Estate Market Update & Comparison With Los Gatos

Median List Price of Monte Sereno Homes for Sale as Compared to Los Gatos Homes for Sale in 95030 Zip CodeMonte Sereno is a small city next to Los Gatos and Saratoga, Ca, a nice part of Silicon Valley against the coastal foothills. It's completely residential except for the city office and the post office. With just 4000 residents, it is sometimes overlooked or treated like a suburb of Los Gatos, with which it shares a zip code and some services.

Monte Sereno real estate is a little different then Los Gatos real estate, though. It's a bit more expensive and upscale, and is often considered more desireable. Right now in Silicon Valley, it's the lone holdout with prices higher than they were a year ago!

On my Live in Los Gatos blog, I had a look at Monte Sereno's housing market now as contrasted with Los Gatos now and also with its own market 2 years ago. To learn more about the market for houses in Monte Sereno and to see a number of charts and graphs, please read on at Live in Los Gatos:

How is the Monte Sereno Real Estate Market Faring? How Does It Compare to the Los Gatos Real Estate Market and the Market Two Years Ago?