Patrick Foley

I've been noticing a thaw in the nationwide housing market, and I wonder if it is just from my experience, or if there is actually something to all of this. I'd love to hear your comments/thoughts/opinions. My evidence comes from the numbers being publicized by the Bloombergs/CNBCs/Reuters of the world. The other is from my Dad, who is a residential broker in Northwest Arkansas.

The Numbers

As I mentioned, over the past 3-6 weeks, I have noticed some good news coming across the wires regarding residential real estate. Home sales in Southern California actually increased in September compared to August, though prices continue to decline (as well they need to, they were vastly inflated in my opinion). I think that's important because some attribute the problem in Southern California as the precursor to the nationwide problem. YOY home sales are up 1.3% in September nationwide, though this isn't the growth we all are looking for, it points to some stabilization in the markets.

In September, the Commerce Department reported that Housing Starts are at a 17-year low, and building permits are down 8.3%, a sign of further slowing in future housing starts number. This is helping draw down inventory, which is beneficial to the real estate industry, and also affects existing home sales and values.

Enough with the numbers, you get the idea. Things are not all bleak out there.

The Story

Things could be better, but according to my Dad's business (which I know is not a national economic indicator), things are looking up. The number of listings, and properties set to close are up. Business isn't exactly booming, but it is up considerably over the last several months. This was one of the hottest real estate markets in the earlier part of the 2000's as the population growth began to explode with the growth of companies like Wal Mart, JB Hunt, Tyson and others. They too saw massive developments that began to flood the market with supply, but as we saw with the numbers above, supply is beginning to be drawn down as construction slows.

Commercial Implications

What kind of commercial broker would I be without writing about the implications to the commercial real estate market. Obviously, a healthy economy is very important to keeping commercial real estate afloat. It certainly does not help us when businesses are contracting and laying of personnel. We are also facing problems of oversupply as developers became very overzealous. Eventually the banks will foreclose on properties and they will be snapped up by distressed/value investors who will make a ton of money. So while things will rebound, I think commercial is going to lag behind residential (as it usually does) and the worst is yet to come. That being said, there is going to be A TON OF $$$$ MADE by those with the cash on the sidelines to put forward and buy these distressed assets. When that comes to pass, commercial guys with the knowledge of the market are going to be able to get rich with the investors.

As always YOUR COMMENTS are welcome, and greatly appreciated!

I don't pretend to judge, and my political feelings are generally very well known, even to those on AR. The question I do have though is, are the traders on the Street discounting failed Obamanomics with the 1000 point decline we have seen since the election? I'm certainly willing to give the guy a chance, even though I do not agree with his proposals, but I can't help but wonder, does the market know better than you, me, or the electorate?

Interested in Meeting Senator Cornyn, Railroad Commisioner Michael Williams, and former Texas Secretary of State Roger Williams?

I just wanted to let anyone out there know that there will be opportunity to phone bank tomorrow in central Austin. If you want to help make a last minute push for some Republican candidates, please join us. Candidates that we will be phone banking for include: Congressman Michael McCaul, Senator John Cornyn, Texas House candidate Bryan Daniels, Texas House Candidate Donna Keel, Railroad Commissioner Michael Williams and others. See details below:

Monday 10:00AM - 5:00PM

Texas Victory House - 1603 Shoal Creek Boulevard (off Lamar between 15th and MLK)

Snacks and drinks provided

Monday 5:00PM-8:00PM

Republican Party of Texas Headquarters - 900 Congress Avenue

Meet in the lobby area.

Senator Cornyn, Commissioner Williams, and Secretary Williams will all be in attendance at this event!

If you are at all interested in volunteering, please call or e-mail me, or contact Colby Hale at chale@texasgop.org

Perry's Steakhouse & Grille has finally branched out of Houston and made
the trek up to the state capital.  Thank God they're here!!!  Perry's has
been, and remains, one of my favorite restaurants to go to when I return
to my native city.  Now, the trip is as simple as hopping in the car and
finding a parking spot downtown (you can valet of course).


Perry's opened up to some fanfare last week with a dinner featuring the
Austin symphony.  If I hadn't been out of town, I can assure you I would
have made reservations to attend.


While I haven't been yet, I'm planning to go as soon as I get a chance
(hopefully this weekend or early next week).  Two things I want to push to
everyone that might consider going is their infamous tableside carved pork
chop and their scrumptious fried asparagus with crab meat.  Those two, in
concert (or not), are to die for.


Apparently, they also have a Happy Hour, being billed as Perry's Social
Hour, that features half-priced appetizes and premium paired wines at only
$5/Glass.  What a deal!  From what I can tell, this runs from 4:00-6:30
during the week, and posibly sometime on Sunday as well.


The pricepoint is a bit higher than the average restaurant (though the
pork chop that I always get is less than $30), it is well worth it.  As
with any steakhouse, they have steaks (which are excellent) and the usual
seafood/chicken route.  They have an array of salads (the warm spinach w/
bacon is by far my favorite), and sides are served family style (again the
fried asparagus is an excellent choice).


Unfortunately, Perry's isn't paying me to promote/rave for them, but I
would urge all of you to check it out next time you're up for a meal in
downtown Austin.  For your convenience:

114 West 7th Street
Austin, Texs 78701
512-474-6300

They're only open for Dinner (after 4PM), which is unfortunate.  I would
recommend reservations, and I've been turned away more than once for being
so naive.  I'll try and post a follow-up after I dine there in the coming
week.

I don't want to jinx the Longhorns going into the very important game against the Red Raiders of Texas Tech this Saturday night (ABC, 7:00 CDT). That being said, being #1 in the country for the past three weeks, and playing in front of national markets on ABC, may in fact have an impact on the local economy.

• Schools in the Spotlight Get More Applicants - Schools that win the national championship, or that receive a great deal of time on the air for having a good team, often see a subsequent rise in applications. As a result, the applicant pool becomes more competitive, and the school becomes better for it. Though the impact isn't seen right away, this should lead to a smarter and more diverse group of graduates years down the road which is generally healthy for the local economy. Naturally, if raw enrollment also sees an increase, the students and associated faculty and staff to support the enrollment have to live and work somewhere. The increased numbers also lead to increased economic activity.
  
  
• The Fan Base Grows - As more and more fans become energized by their sports teams, they are more likely to 1) Donate more to their alma mater and 2) Go see some games. Donations to the school allow for more spending, and thus, economic stimulus. More fans coming to see games is a huge boost for the service industry, a key component in today's economy.
  
  
• The Economy & City are Highlighted - The human interest stories and inevitable showcasing of restaurants, industry, and recreation are a part of the national broadcasts. For Joe (not the plumber) in Rhode Island that has never visited Texas, let alone Austin, he might become intersted in visiting the city/school/state that he has seen on ABC and ESPN so much lately. In fact, when he hears how the high tech industry is booming there while the rest of the economy is contracting, he might move there.
  

The ways the game might impact the area are endless, but it's interesting to consider. Maybe next time you're watching a hot team, consider the impact that team is having on their area, or when you are watching your favorite team go through a brutal stretch of conference games, think about how to use their success to help make you a success.