Rama Mehra Certified Pre Foreclosure Specialist

Looking to buy a short sale? I know of so many buyers who shy away, simply because it is a lengthy process which may or may not result in a closing. On the other hand there are buyers who are making ridiculously low offers in the hope of getting a steal.

The analysis that I came up with clearly indicates at the beginning of 2008 the difference in List Price and Sale Price was substantial. But as the months progressed you can see that the gap is narrowing.Even in short sales, the list prices have come down, hence the sale price is not much lower inpercentage value of LP. The relatively good news for sellers in short sales is that they can get out of a bad loan/financial situation without hurting their credit score for a long span of time and maybe able to get the the short pay, off from the credit report in 2 years.For buyers, patience and strategy can lead to getting a bargain.

Windemere Sold Short sales

And the answer is YES.I am switching off my tv for good as the bad news everywhere is giving me a brain freeze. At the same time I am not in denial. I still have enough intelligence to understand that everyone is hurting. And at the same time I also understand that this is the time for those who have the resources to afford a home to get off that fence to grab a deal.

Everyday I hear my buyers saying that we are halting our search because our friends tell us that the market will tank further.Really?? I would like to take a glimpse into that crystal ball too to see if I am wining the Super Lotto next week. The funniest bit of this all is that people went and invested( and sometimes recklessly) all their money in stocks like there was no tomorrow.Was there not even a slightest bit of fear there?

We are in a cycle of self fulfilling prophecy of FEAR. It has always been this fear factor that has historically been the causes of downturns and upswings. People will jump onto the bandwagon in fear that they will miss out in reaping astronomical profits by not buying real estate and also jump onto the same bandwagon in fear that real estate will sink further. We are humans and we are herd followers.Smart investors find this to be an amazing time to buy real estate.If you are willing to go back to the basics and consider Real estate as a long term investment, there could not be a better time than now.

During the holidays while everyone was celebrating Christmas, I was pulling stats on my local market. In the frenzy of the media's " All hell is breaking loose" anthem, people tend to forget that every market is local. You have to examine the market you want to sell or buy in to make a decision whether the market is heading upwards or downwards. Hence the decision to display the results.. and if anyone has questions, call me.

I have compiled data for the city of San Ramon, which clearly indicates that prices have come down substantially but at the same time inventory is down, days on market have reduced, prices are almost at a static level. What does this mean? For sellers who have been contemplating to put their house on the market, this might be a good window of opportunity.If the price is right, your home will sell.And the key is to work with a Realtor who knows your market inside out and have the capacity to give you a pricing guide even without looking at comps ! And yes, I will tell you that working with so many buyers, I know how the buyers' brain is pricing the home.

If you are in the market to Sell or Buy, please take a note of these other graphs and charts which will speak for themselves.
Detached Homes
Attached Homes
Housing Analysis for year 2008

While I was away in November, some markets did experience changes. Currently things are slow due to the holiday season and hence there is a seasonal slow down in the pace of homes for sale and units sold. However, there are a few communities that saw sales price increases from October to November and in this market where we just hear bad news, I wanted to share some glimmer of hope.

Challenges related to credit markets and access to home purchase financing among other impending bad news on the recession and the economy contributed to the reduction in real estate activity from October to November. The data below has been obtained from the Bay East Association of Realtors.

Tri-Valley
(Danville, Dublin, Livermore, Pleasanton and San Ramon)
In the Tri-Valley sales activity has slowed, but sales prices in three communities have stabilized or increased. Good news for sellers in San Ramon: San Ramon had the largest month-to-month median sales price increase - a 4.9 percent rise to $750,000. Sales prices in Dublin increased 2.7 percent to $615,000 in November while prices remained unchanged at $420,000 in Livermore. Sales prices in both Danville and Pleasanton dropped from October to November. However, in terms of actual numbers, prices in both communities are still relatively strong The median sales price in Danville for November was $790,000 and in Pleasanton was $700,000.

Central County
(Castro Valley, Hayward, San Leandro and San Lorenzo)
Median sales prices for single-family homes increased 2.6 percent in San Lorenzo from October to November. Prices in Hayward also increased slightly from $295,000 in October to $297,000 in November. Castro Valley prices dropped 20 percent month-to-month - the November median sales price was $462,500. Sales activity throughout the region was down an average of 27 percent from October to November. Active listings dropped 10 percent and pending listings were also down 25 percent.

Tri-Cities
(Fremont, Newark and Union City)
The Tri-Cities region consisting of Union City, Newark and Fremont was hardest hit by the seasonal decline in sales activity. Month-to-month all market indicators show a drop in pending and active listings and actual units sold. The median sales price dropped an average of 13 percent in this region. Fremont had the largest percentage price decline but still ended November with a median sales price of $470,000.


"The Bay East Housing Reports are based in whole or in part on data supplied by the Bay East Association of REALTORS® or its Multiple Listing Service (MLS). Neither the Association nor its MLS guarantees or is in any way responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by the Association or its MLS may not reflect all real estate activity in the market. Due to late closings, an adjustment is necessary to record those closings posted after our reporting date. Note that statistics released each month may be revised in the future as new data is received."

My mouth just dropped to my knees when I heard the news on the extra sweet bailout the banks have received at the hands of the outgoing government. Is anyone planning to make noise about this? The utter stupidity or the cunning on the part of this current government is just mind blowing. And when I came to this country, I had the stars in my eyes with the innocent view of an uncorrupt world of the US of A.

With attention on bailout debate, the Treasury made changes to the tax law( section 382 of the IRS code), which went unnoticed in the euphoria of the Presidential election. While the financial world was fixated on Capitol Hill, as Congress fought over the Bush administration's request for a $700 billion bailout of the banking industry, in the midst of this late-September drama, the Treasury Department issued a five-sentence notice that attracted almost no public attention as it went unpublicised.

Tax lawyers quickly realized the enormous implications of the document: Administration officials had just given American banks a windfall of as much as $140 billion.The sweeping change to two decades of tax policy escaped the notice of lawmakers and the general public for several days, as they remained consumed with the controversial bailout bill. When they found out, some legislators were furious, just as I was furious when I heard of it.

Members of congress and some of the congressional staff members have privately concluded
that the notice was illegal. What annoys me the most is that members of congress are worried to openly criticise this illegal chnage of the IRS tax code because they worry that saying so publicly could unravel several recent bank mergers made possible by the change and send the economy into an even deeper tailspin.And wallowing in that fear will only make these banks more brazen, in partnerships with the Bush henchmen of evil.

As my civic duty, I am crying foul and I am very angry. These banks have been provided with tax payer dollars to pump money into the economy but instead of making loans available to qualified borrowers, they are making more and more difficult for people to obtain loans... and the outrage is that these banks are being given more tax relief?? Are we ever going to get ourselves out of the shanannigans of the Bush administration? Is anyone going to ask questions to Paulson and his cronies at the Treasury Department? Did Bush give the department the authority to revise the tax code? How much more nonsense are we going to take? These are the dangers of the broad authority being exercised by Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. in addressing the financial crisis and we should have fought hard to protect ourselves from this.

For those who are not aware, the change to Section 382 of the tax code -- a provision that limited a kind of tax shelter arising in corporate mergers -- came after a two- decade effort by conservative economists and Republican administration officials to eliminate or overhaul the law. Section 382 of the tax code was created by Congress in 1986 to end what it considered an abuse of the tax system: companies sheltering their profits from taxation by acquiring shell companies whose only real value was the losses on their books. The firms would then use the acquired company's losses to offset their gains and avoid paying
taxes. The fine print in the bailout plan for the banks also indicates that the banks may now also be able to write off their bad assets as tax write off on their books.

So my question is- Why should tax payers bail out these greedy banks who preyed on people by enticing them with easy money and now when the axe fell on their heads, they swing to the other end of the pendulum and make it harder for people to get money? To hell with capitalism and free markets, these banks need to be nationalised. Why can we not take the lead of tiny countries like the Uk, who put stringent guidelines on their banking industry to release the money into the system? Too much pork and lobbyists are the hallmark of our system, I wonder( and sincerely hope) that the new Obama administration will take a different route.

THere are days when I want to blog but hold back because I want something substantial to talk about, and I think my research is now ready for review.I get a number of calls on Windemere but the one thing that stands out is the unrealistic expectations of buyers.

However hard I try to give hard facts, there is an underlying current of distrust. And I don't blame them because the media is saying that all hell has broken loose. So, I have decided that instead of trying to convince people that prices are down and there is not much more room for negotiation, I am just going to provide data that will satisfy the cerebral kind.

Analysis of Average List Price of Windemere Homes from 2006-08, YTD Oct

Analysis of Average Sales Price of Windemere Homes from 2006-08, YTD Oct

Trendlines of Windemere Sales in 2006- List Price to Sales Prices



Trendlines of Windemere Sales in 2007- List Price to Sales Prices



Trendlines of Windemere Sales in 2008- List Price to Sales Prices



These charts will show you home prices have come down and there is a flattening line in the chart for 2008.The above charts are based on sales reported on the MLS and do not always have information of new home sales.

Here is my advice to you: Work with a Realtor who has deep knowledge of their area of business as they can save you way more money in the long term.As a professional, I can say this with confidence that I have the extensive knowledge about my area of work because I put all my time into this area. And very honestly, I would never be able to do the same justice to a property out of my area as I manot out there 24x7 !!