Paul Slaybaugh, Scottsdale AZ Real Estate

Will they or won’t they?

As the eyes of the nation remain riveted to the halls of Congress in anticipation, or dread, depending on perspective, of a financial rescue bill, the seven billion dollar question for you on the ultra microeconomic level is where to put your money.

Should you roll the dice and throw good money after bad in the stock market, wagering that the implosions of the past week have created buying opportunities instead of additional seats aboard the Hindenberg?

Should you reinvest what’s left of your portfolio into Real Estate now that prices have crashed, before the ability to obtain financing dries up completely?

Should you plug everything you have into a federally insured two percent vanilla savings account?

I don’t know.

I am but a simple Realtor.

I choose to keep my money invested in what I know, so owning property is always most appealing to me. Does this mean that gobbling up every piece of cheap dirt is right for everyone? Certainly not. I have a vested interest in selling you property, just as your stockbroker has a vested interest in getting you more heavily invested in growth funds.

Your insurance guy called, too. Something about being grossly under-insured against Sasquatch-related decapitation? No fear, he has a policy that is right for you.

While no play is inherently right or wrong (though your insurance agent strikes me as a bit dubious), don’t be oversold on any one investment avenue.

Be clear, however, I am a very big believer in Real Estate right now. Rather than fighting over scraps at the buffet when everyone else is jockeying for a seat, I prefer to wait for the collective belch before dessert. It is a short-lived phenomenon, but provides the opportunity to get while the getting is good.

Now that the bloated diners have all temporarily pushed away from the table, I have relatively unimpeded access to the fudge brownies, cheesecake, key lime pie … whatever strikes my fancy. I might gorge on one particular delicacy, or I might help myself to a few nibbles of each. I could plunk down all of the cash in my jeans for the hot fudge sundae, or I could spread my funds around to ensure my palate finds what it likes.

Of course, this requires credit.

For the time being, there is still financing available for those with solid cash reserves and a good credit rating. I won’t be one to ring the panic bell, but it is possible that financing options will become even narrower before the current crisis is successfully navigated. In six months time, we just might be down to borrowing money from B of A and your crazy uncle Al who has been squirreling money under the porch for the past twenty eight years.

As such, those who are waiting to squeeze every last price drop out of the market prior to purchasing do run the risk of waiting themselves right out of a loan. Agent or not, I will be the first to admit that prices very well might continue to slide for the remainder of the year. Yet, if credit becomes more expensive (rate hikes) or unavailable to you (tightening qualification standards, bank failures), have you made the smart play by continuing to hold out for that absolute rock bottom? Shoot, we could start giving property away for free, and there would be those still waiting to see if sellers would pay them to buy their homes.

It’s not as cut and dried as the man on the street may believe. Trends are trends because they do not last forever. They do not constitute mathematical law. I’ve had many ask me why they should buy now when they are essentially making $10,000 a month by not buying. To this I simply note that the dynamics of the market are always changing. Many people got into their current jams by making the opposite assumption: that the appreciation explosion would never end. As such, they made foolish choices, such as holding onto multiple properties they couldn’t actually afford. Buying new houses and renting out the old place at a loss on the assumption that it would be worth hundreds of thousands more in a year’s time. Oops.

The boom in my area, the frothy artificial spike that is, lasted for all of six to eight months. We are already well past that in this depreciative cycle. Recent economic woes aside, I’ll take my chances on the investment that puts a roof over heads in a historically desirable area. And I’ll take those same chances now, when the market is weakened and my options are plentiful. If my financing options evaporate over the next year, have I saved anything by waiting?

Again, take what I say with one family-sized grain of salt. I make my living selling houses. But if you are of the same mind, give me a call. I can’t guarantee that we will make you an instant millionaire by urging you to “BUY NOW!!!” as the informercials would have you believe, but I can find you some tremendous values that I believe will prove to be excellent long-term investments.

Now go call your stock guy, and he will give you a similar pitch. When you are done talking to him, flip a coin, say three Hail Mary’s and move all of your money into Bobblehead Dolls.

It is no secret that Scottsdale, Arizona is one of the most coveted winter destinations in the United States. Every year, from November to April, the self-proclaimed West’s Most Western Town greets visitors from all parts of the world. Midwesterners and Canadians are usual suspects, and the contingent that visits from back East grows every year. With mounting concern over hurricanes and other factors, Scottsdale has siphoned a fair portion of regulars from the usual winter haunts in the Southern states.

So while I am not exactly letting the cat out of the bag about the seasonal appeal of the Sonoran Desert, the intention of this piece is to provide an overview of a few of the more seasonal resident-friendly communities in Scottsdale. Considering that most who visit will return for future seasons, it is not surprising that many will opt to purchase a second home here at some point. Seasonal lease rates can run up to three to four times typical offseason rates for furnished rentals, so ownership can be much more appealing.

For the two people on the continent who need convincing that Scottsdale is a terrific place to own a vacation home, allow me to persuade you with this oldie but goodie. For everyone else, here are some communities which I am highlighting for their traditional appeal to winter residents: centrally located near coveted amenities such as walking paths, lakes, dining, shopping, parks, etc. Proximity to Sky Harbor Airport and convenient freeway access to other parts of the Valley is also taken into consideration.

• Heritage Village in McCormick Ranch is a multi-phase development of patio homes. Nestled amongst the surrounding subdivisions of single-family detached homes, these homes are ideal for the seasonal resident. The properties are single-level, and share one common wall with their neighbors. Ranging in size from approximately 1700-2300 square feet, these homes were constructed between the late 70s – mid 80s, and include two car garages and private patios. It is the ideal blend of private ownership (unlike condo ownership, you own your own dirt in addition to the structure) and community amenities. The reasonable monthly association fee of $200 (plus an additional $180 annual planned community fee) provides common area maintenance, front yard maintenance, tennis courts and use of the heated community pools & spas. Perfect for those who want the privacy of a single family home, but not the maintenance of a private pool and yard. With one phase based along the banks of Lake Angela, and another along the McCormick Ranch Golf Course, the locations couldn’t be more ideal. Immediate access to the McCormick Ranch walking paths (which run throughout the subdivisions) provides the intrepid with routes to the parks, restaurants, lakes and golf courses that make it famous. More than most communities which are favored by winter residents, the Golden Heritage homes live and feel like “houses,” as opposed to townhouses. Current pricing ranges from the upper $300,000s to the $600,000s (lakefront or golf course lots).

• Indian Bend Village, more commonly known by its marketing name of “Suntree,” is another great option for the seasonal resident. Legally recorded as a townhouse subdivision, these Spanish style patio homes offer similar advantages to Heritage Village. These properties vary between one and two levels, and share, at most, one common wall with a neighbor. The ideal combination of privacy and low maintenance, there are no neighbors above or below in a Suntree patio home. The stylish tile roofs and stucco exteriors culminate in a prototypical Spanish style home. For those who want their Scottsdale experience to entail all of the trappings of the Southwest, it doesn’t get anymore “Arizona” than this. Just south of McCormick Ranch, this smaller community of 174 homes abuts the Silverado Golf Course in central Scottsdale. With convenient access to the nearby walking paths, downtown Scottsdale scene and shopping / dining galore, the location leaves little to be desired. The reasonable $130 monthly association fee covers common area & front yard maintenance in addition to use of the tennis court and heated community pool & spa. Homes in Suntree were constructed in the early 80s, and primarily range from 1400-2000 square feet. Current prices range from $325,000 - $550,000.

• Santa Fe is a quaint Spanish style patio home community in McCormick Ranch. Featuring single and two-story homes between 1800-2300 square feet, the western perimeter of Santa Fe abuts Camelback Walk (McCormick Ranch walking path) and the McCormick Ranch Golf Course. With timeless appeal, these villas were originally constructed in the 70s. A wave of remodeling has crashed into the development in recent years, creating a terrific marriage of charm and modern luxury in many. Directly across Hayden Road is the Paseo Village shopping center. Santa Fe is also an easy walk from the McCormick Ranch Golf Club and the Mercado Del Lago center that boasts fine, as well as casual, dining. The walking paths extend south virtually uninterrupted to Tempe. Heading northeast, you can meander all the way to the hospital at 90^th St and Shea without crossing a road. Along that walk, you’ll pass Cochise Elementary School, Mountain View Park, Lake Margherite, Lake Nino, Lake Angela, the Palm & Pine Golf Courses … there are no finer pedestrian accommodations in the Valley. The low monthly HOA fee of $154/month (plus an additional annual $180 planned community fee) pays for the heated community pool & spa (overlooking the golf course, with views of Camelback Mountain), common area maintenance, front yard maintenance, exterior maintenance and blanket insurance policy on the homes (with limitations). Current asking prices in Santa Fe range from $400,000 - $600,000.

• The Colony at Scottsdale is another multi-phase development in central Scottsdale. Located approximately a quarter of a mile west of Indian Bend Village, these patio homes were built from the mid 70s to the early 80s in three sections. The older two sections primarily include carports, but some have been converted to garages over the years. The furthest north of the phases (has a separate HOA) is a bit more modern, and all homes have 2 car garages. The beige exterior versus plain white, and a marketing name of “Arroyo Verde Homes” also serve to differentiate this phase from the preceding two. The homes in the Colony are similar to the other developments listed here in that they merge community living with privacy. Otherwise put, there is a sense of single-family living without the maintenance. These homes share a common wall, but have no one above nor below. Homes in The Colony range from 900-1600 square feet, and carry lesser price tags than some of the neighboring developments. With similar community features to its more expensive counterparts, including pool & spa, access to jogging paths along the golf course & canal, exterior & front landscaping included in the HOA fees, The Colony is a great option for those with lesser size requirements. The current fee in phases 1 and 2 (which share the same board) are $128 / month. The third phase, Arroyo Verde, has a current fee of $170 / month. Current pricing ranges from the low $200,000s to the low $300,000s.

• Gainey Ranch is the ultimate in lock and leave lifestyle. A master planned community for the well-heeled, Gainey Ranch is sandwiched between McCormick Ranch and the town of Paradise Valley. The beautiful Hyatt Regency lies just outside of its gates. Gainey Ranch features manned guard gates for the community, individual gates for many of the subdivisions within, golf, tennis, community pools & spas, clubhouse and all styles of housing. From single-family homes to condos, townhomes and patio homes, there is a wide variety from which to choose. But when looking in Gainey Ranch, don’t forget to pack your big boy wallet. The fees alone are prohibitive to many, and they don’t take American Express. With a monthly planned community fee in the several hundred dollar range, along with additional monthly subdivision fees in many cases, there is a veritable house payment in fees alone. Oh, and golf? You guessed it. That’s an additional fee. Gainey should not be on your list if you are shopping on a budget. If, however, you are operating with a bit more financial leeway, it’s tough to beat this community for location, amenities and security. Prices swing wildly from small condos in the low $300,000s to multi-million dollar single family homes.

* All fees and values estimated as of September, 2008.

This is but a sampling of the options available. From condos to mansions, there is a property for every budget and need. To get the search started for your ideal Scottsdale vacation home, please feel free to contact me or visit your Scottsdale AZ Vacation Home Expert.

Does 70 degrees sound like your idea of winter?

See you soon.

As I have for the past seven or eight years, I'm participating in a Fantasy Football league this fall. Well, participating is a bit of a misnomer. Between familial and business commitments, not to mention a recent move, my performance has been somewhat ... lackluster. In fact, I have no idea who I even ran out there the first weekend. Whoever it was, they were good for a forty point thrashing at the hands of some geek in Philadelphia. When I finally bothered to check in a few days ago, I was surprised to see that the automated draft had actually produced a few big-name players for me. Carson Palmer was slinging the rock. LT was toting it. Two of my three starting wide receivers are Pro-Bowlers (for you non football fans, that does not mean that they compete on the professional Rock'N Bowl circuit during the offseason). My kicker had the requisite unpronounceable last name to ensure he was raised to boot an oblong piece of stuffed synthetic pigskin through two yellow poles.

The computer obviously thought enough of the statistical prowess of these players to assemble the motley crew that would come to be known as "Phunk U."

Funny thing about those computers and their data, though. It's the very same mantra you hear from financial guys ad naseum: Past performance does not necessarily dictate future performance.

All of those pretty stats from last season would have made a good starting point, but they are still a year old. A professional athlete's performance may be affected by many things. Health is first and foremost in the order of importance. The stud running back who found the end zone fifteen times last year might have dinged himself up during the preseason and lost a bit from his peak ability. Shoot, he could have hurt his pinky toe playing footsie for that matter. There is also the matter of teammates. Suppose that same running back was following a 275 pound fullback with a head the size of a Prius through the defense last year? If Sir-Blocks-A-Lot took a free agent deal to play elsewhere this season, our boy is going to have to fight a lot harder for the yards that came so easily in the past. Then there is the issue of his contract. What if he was playing in the final year of his contract last season? He played out of his gourd as a man only can when he smells a new deal. Preferably one with more zeroes than you'd find in the Oval Office right now.

Once the man gets paid, he might have a hard time recapturing that lightning in a bottle.

So where is the rather flimsy analogy amidst Paul's Guide to Fantasy Football Futility? Aside from the evident truth that Carson Palmer is about as worthless as sanity at Gary Busey's beach house, it is this simple message to sellers:

GET YOUR HEADS OUT OF 2005

Trust me, I know the house across the street went for $575,000 a couple of years ago. I sold it.

I know what the house a couple blocks over fetched a year ago. I sold it, too.

As difficult as it is to let go of the high water mark, let go of it we must. Properties that sold six months ago, let alone two to three years ago, are obsolete. Just as you wouldn't have accepted the premise of pulling sale comps from 2004 during the height of 2005, when the month to month appreciation rates were staggering, you simply cannot base your current market value on yesterday's statistics.

Trust me, I wish we could.

Every time values fall, we agents take a pay cut. We don't like that.

So when I, or one of my esteemed colleagues, break out the recent data to discuss your home's present value, please be aware that we know all too well about the Carstons next door. Same for the Richardsons down the street. Those sales aren't just stale, they're hockey pucks.

I could nod my head and allow myself to be persuaded, but I'd be a lousy agent if I let my potential clients sell me on value. This is what I do. All day, every day. In a difficult market, I will not waste your time, nor my own, inflating your head with a Disneyland expectation, only to produce state fair results.

My pledge to you is complete and total honesty in not only providing a reality-based professional opinion of value, but in everything I do. Seems odd to need to say that, but I wish more would.

Time for me to go set my lineup for tomorrow's games now. LaDainian Tomlinson is questionable with an injury, and just doesn't appear to be the same running back without Lorenzo Neal blocking for him.

Hmm ... he did run, catch and throw for a touchdown in the same game back in 2005, though. Tough call.

I am a pretty pony.

I am a rainbow.

I am a simpleton of staggering proportions.

If I read one more “inspirational” blog post that reads like a poster in a guidance counselor’s office, I am going to bash my brains in with a pink hammer of positivity.

We are currently mired in perhaps the greatest financial crisis of our time. This is not merely a Real Estate woe, but an economical precipice upon which our great nation teeters. We are essentially selling our debt to pay today’s bills. To make matters worse, we are beholden to nations who would not exactly make it into our Fave Five. What is the single greatest contributing factor to our current misfortune? Delusion.

Life is a bowl of cherries!

In a world of magnets, be the iron of good fortune!

I am all for finding solutions to bleak situations. For rising above difficult circumstances to not only survive, but to thrive. To use every challenge as an opportunity for growth. However, that requires acknowledgement of the difficulties that surround us. Simply pulling our horns in and expecting to produce shiny new results through failed methods of the past because of the belief that a bright-eyed and bushy-tailed demeanor is all that is ever required of us borders on lunacy.

I am a magic carpet flying through stormy skies!

When everyone else goes for their razor, be the shaving cream!

We well get through this turmoil. We will. We will be stronger for it, and we will have a newfound respect for the volatility of the free market. For awhile. Who knows how many of us will live to see the next great meltdown, but the same faulty assumptions will eventually be made. The same hubris will prompt us to buy into the same myths. And in those dark times, there will be the same band playing the same tired tune as the Titanic sinks yet again. You’d think the quartet would stop getting on the same ill-fated boat, but they won’t. Why? Because they never acknowledge that the ship sank the first time. Just kept on playing the same damn song. Nothing to see here people, it’s all in your minds!

When all the other squirrels are hiding in their trees, you find the best nuts!

When your mutual fund gets blasted into orbit, do the moonwalk!

There is power in positivity when it is tempered with realism. You must understand the nature of your foe if you wish to defeat it. Something tells me that Sun Tzu was not too concerned with discovering “The Secret.” He was doing recon in preparation of cutting off the heads of his enemies while they were sitting around the campfire singing Kumbaya.

This market is tough. It’s downright brutal, in fact. Yet there is opportunity for those who know where to find it. You only find those opportunities by probing for weakness, rather than spooning another heaping serving of delusion into that gaping pie hole.

I'm a mythical unicorn dancing in a coconut cream sky!

Looking for the glazed-over craziness in the moo cow eyes of a true believer to help you navigate these treacherous times? I’m not your guy. You are looking for an agent who only looks through his "happy" eye. Sounds great in theory, but costs you depth perception. Why do you think your cycloptic friend keeps walking into the same wall?

Looking for someone to chum these rough seas for the biggest freaking fish in the water? Give me a call.

The market sucks. Let's make that work for you.

I love Flagstaff.

It's our crazy uncle to the north. The city that shows up to family functions late, if at all, reeking of cheap liquor and Pinesol.

An eclectic explosion of free thinkers, loggers, aging hippies, Gen X slackers, Valley expats and weekend family gawkers, one would expect such a scene somewhere in Oregon or Northern California.  But just a couple hours north of the conservative bastion that spawned Barry Goldwater and John McCain?  It's another world entirely. 

As we have for the past few years, my family trudged up the hill to our place in Munds Park for 4th of July weekend.  20 miles south of Flag, and right off the I-17, it is the perfect spot.  Close enough to town for entertainment and necessities, but far enough removed to enjoy the bit of seclusion that one envisions for an A-frame cabin in the woods.

    Circumstances keeping us down in the Valley until Friday, we hit the road mid-morning on the fourth.  Unfortunately, that meant we missed the parade in downtown Flagstaff and the local Munds Park version as well.  No matter, we made it into downtown Flag shortly after one, where we met my folks, who had come up the prior day.

With my niece, Amber, in tow, Brandi, the boys and I met up with my mom and dad at an arts & crafts festival in Wheeler Park.  For five bucks, we were able to bounce the boys crazy in a bounce-house/inflatable slide smorgasbord.  We perused the craft stands, sampled some barbeque and watched the boys dance to a local blues band before piling back in the car to hit the next venue.

The Continental Country Club has been the highlight of Fourth of July's past, but it served as the consolation prize this year.  The local symphony was to be accompanied by a laser show at the outdoor amphitheater this year.  TICKETS WERE FREE!  Alas, you still had to have tickets.  All three thousand were sold out before we even knew the event was scheduled.  No fear, we would hit the country club in style, and have ourselves a grand old time.

And we did.

If anything, we had a far better time this year with the sparser crowd.  While the cool people of Flagstaff rocked out to lasers and classical music, we watched another local band, enjoyed great food and drink (Stone IPA on tap for $3!!!) and splendid company.  Some family friends have a condo in the area, and we hooked up with them.  With little ones of their own, it afforded the adults (I guess you can include me) the opportunity to catch up while the kids wrought havoc on the golf course.  As with years past, there were fun activities like a water balloon toss.  Unlike past years, however, other participants got more than they bargained for when we turned it into a full on war.  There is an empty cooler of water and a drenched contestant somewhere who will unequivocally tell you that victory went to Team Slaybaugh.

Heading back to the cabin, parents as wiped out as kids, we opted to forego the fireworks.  With only one display slotted for the entire area, it would have required 15 miles of travel on unpaved road to Mormon Lake.  They weren't going to get cookin' until 9 PM either.  With little eyelids getting heavier and heavier until closing up shop for the day on the drive home, we opted to finish the evening on the front deck of the cabin.  After carefully transferring the sleeping boys from car seats to beds, we put on sweatshirts, cracked open a bottle of red for the white and blue, and stared up at where the stars should have been.  We were only disappointed that a cloud cover had muted the heavens for a minute or two.  Soon we heard faraway booms and saw faint traces of light silhouette the pines before us.  Inconceivably, we served as the western outpost for the fireworks display.  We could not make out the colors nor the patterns, just the flashes.  It was actually a bit Orwellian, as if the War of the Worlds had just been launched on the far side of the mountain.  Mormon Lake seemed an odd choice of epicenter, but ... to celebrate a nation born of cannon fire and rocket glare, it was ... perfect.

Happy Birthday, America.

- The Slaybaughs