Oil hit $135/barrel last night.
Currently, 1 in 5 homes are selling in Calgary. (We are in a buyers market ... and looks like we'll be here for awhile.)
It is predicted that $4-$6 Trillion dollars will be wiped out in US in next year ... due to Sub-prime crisis.
A vertan realtor and old timer said to me yesterday, "I've never seen the market this bad. I can't sell any of my listings."
How do we make sense of the current slump off the housing market in Calgary?
Today I requested from the Calgary Real Estate Board annual data back to 1973 on the following:
From my analysis of the data ...
... assuming the trend of 1982 is IDENTICAL to our current economic situation (which of course it is not) ... we are sitting at about 1983 ... and it will take to about 2013 to get back to 2007 prices.
(We have 4 years of great buying opportunities ... of cash flowing properties.)
... buying investment property (which CASH FLOWS) ... is a good idea. (... if real estate values always go up; which History shows that they do.)
(... I have some concerns about the AMERICAN EMPIRE being finished ... China and Southeast Asia are becoming the new world order.)
However, I'm curious of the microcosm of Alberta. (Should we not have wealth like Dubai?)
If a real estate investor has been in the market for 3+ years ... then they might consider cashing out ... and doing something else with their $1 Million plus ... in equity.
It depends on the age of the investor.
If you are 45 years old (or older) ... and have been in the real estate market a few years (3+) ... then cashing out ... could be a good idea.
Probably, like most wealthy people ... they will "have sold too early". (They will reflect back on this is 2020.) However, they could lead a pretty nice life ... with $1 Million to $3 Million in equity.
If you are worth tens of millions of dollars ... I think it makes sense to sell now. (You have seen the GREAT appreciation ... and won't see great appreciation again until 2013 or 2014.)
If you are younger ... then the future still looks very bright. Grow your alberta real estate portfolio ... buy cash flowing property now ... and impeccably manage it.
***
Real Estate is my home first ... then an investment:
-Be cautious about buying your very expensive dream home;
-If you want or need to sell ... price your home VERY competively;
-It's a good time to 'move-up' or 'move-down'.
An old sea kayaking client and friend contacted me recently.
He's got 9 different locations with approximately 60 lots ranging from one to 10 acres and with pricing from $50,000 (wooded) to $700,000 (prime white sand beach oceanfront). The average lot price is on the order of $150,000. He also have 3 homes, ranging from $349,000 (spectacular ocean view) to $549,000 (5 acres beach oceanfront).
This is beautiful property ... and the prices are peanuts for the new wealthy of Alberta.
I'll plan to visit a few of these properties when I'm home in June.
... looks like a deal - that I found on MLS today. MLS #C3306939
Here's a bungalow priced at fair market value ... where the seller is willing to finance 100% of the value ... less the $25,000 he is asking you to come in with.
Install a basement suite ... and voila ... you got cash flow. (... albeit it will be illegal - as this is a R1 property.)
I haven't seen the property yet ...
If you are interested, or know someone who said 'let me know if you find a deal' ... this could be it.
This is a deal for someone who:
-find the process of qualifying for a mortgage troublesome;
-cannot qualify for a mortgage;
-prefers "low cash" down.
-... thinks that Calgary real estate will continue to appreciate in value.
The 'deal' here ... is the vendor financing ... at fair market value.
The strategy ... a LONG TERM hold.
If you have the skill, or the team, to install a basement suite ... then this could be for you.
Have a little one ready for 3-year-old or 4-year-old preschool next September? You won't want to miss registration for the 2008/2009 South Calgary Community Preschool program. Regular (first-time) registration will take place at 7pm on Monday, February 25 at the SCCA hall (there is generally a line-up by early afternoon!). New for 2008/2009: Children will have to be 3 or 4 by December 31st to enter the Three or Four year old programs. New boundaries are also being applied due to increased demand for this program. Inquiries can be forwarded to the Preschool Registrar via info@southcalgarycommunity.ca
Volunteers Required
If you have given any thought to joining the SCCA, we have some key positions that really will need filling come June's AGM. If you are interested in this community and want to contribute some of your time, please contact info@southcalgarycommunity.ca.
I have done a lot of renovations over the past few years. I still don't pretend to know how to do it right.
Currently I have someone laying flooring in a rental property in Altadore, Calgary, AB. I hired him as he is a friend, and I've seen his work. It is nothing stellar ... but fine for my rental properties.
I was shocked when he asked me two weeks ago if I had any work. (Finding trades in Calgary who had time to work over the past three years has been very difficult. It seems as things are slowing.)
He knows I'm busy ... and while I could do the work myself - I don't enjoy this work. (Actually, I couldn't really do this work. I should be honest.)
He calls me about three times each day to update me on the progress ... and to tell me the most recent problem.
Yesterday, I told him that I hired him to do the job ... and I don't need to know all the details.
Over the years ... I mostly have hired the trades myself ... and managed the project. I have also hired a General Contractor ... as I was busy ... and did not wish to manage. (I managed the general contractor ... with just as much frustration as managing each trades person.)
I'm sure there is right way to hire ... and a right way to run the project. I just don't know how yet.
As I was driving yesterday ... I was thinking about how best to describe working with renovators. (A friend and client was looking for a referral to finish his basement.)
I think hiring someone to assist you with doing Renovations is like throwing a party for 9-12 year olds. If you are organized and on top of the plan, and checking in FREQUENTLY with the participants (babysitting lots), things will go well. If you are tempted to leave the participants, you may come back to tears and chaos.
Happy Renovating. I think this is possible. It's like bringing up children ... you do your best ... and try not to be to attached to the outcome!
My son turns 11 today ... and we'll throw a party for 10 of his friends ... which we'll organize and manage. It will likely go very well ... with no tears.
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