Congratulations to last weeks winner Megan O. she correctly Guessed The Place #1 as Hollywood Market! Hey Megan, the gift card is in the mail!
Some people said Guess The Place #1 was easy, so this week, I thought I would try to make it a little more challenging. Although, I’m sure that someone is going to say the same thing!
It’s pretty simple really – be the first to successfully guess where I took the photo and leave a comment below with your answer while you’re at it, subscribe to my blog by clicking here and never miss an opportunity to Guess The Place . At the end of the day, I’ll approve the comments and see who the winner is!
Be specific!!!!
Make sure you leave an email address so that I can get you your prize!
From the Source:'Guess The Place #2′ – Win a Moxie Java Gift Card
If you read my last article about making predictions for Boise Real Estate, you’ll remember that making predictions in real estate is risky business but I’ve gone ahead and decided to do it anyhow.
My first prediction is going to be pretty conservative. Rather than having you wait until the middle of August to know how many homes sold in July, I am going to tell you today!
This prediction is going to be tough because we currently have nearly double the pending contracts last month than there were the year before. So, the actual sales could be higher than I am going to predict if they wind up closing in the next 15 days. Chances are though, they wont because I have a feeling that many of them are ’short-sales’ which could take longer.
This prediction is based on Ada County Re-sale Single Family Homes. If you’d like other predictions, let me know and I’ll put them together for you.
There, I said it! (Although I hope I’m wrong!)
Traditionally, going into the month of July, we peak for the summer market and from there, the total amount of sales drop. With exception to 2005, sales dropped as normal in July but then in August, they rose sharply and then dropped as usual.
As I mentioned before, there is a significantly higher amount of pending sales in the pipeline – 67% higher to be more accurate. If these are set to close this month, we will actually break out of a 5 year trend and have July become a better month than June. I hope this happens!
Keep your eyes open for my next prediction and in the mean time, please consider who might benefit from the services that I provide and who may enjoy reading what I write.
See this article at the source: Boise Real Estate Prediction: July Sales
"When will the market turn around?" A common question these days about the current climate of real estate in Boise and, f I got paid a dime for every time I was asked that, I'd be paying cash for my $99,000 listing!
The fact is, I can't predict the market, no one can. Agents pride themselves on being the one who provides you market stats that show how many homes sold last month and for what price. Bravo! Get over it, knowing the market is a function of your job, just like showing up to work on time.
Making Predictions Is Risky Business
Face it, no one wants to be wrong. I certainly don't, especially at the expense of a client. If I tell you to expect a 6% return on an investment property this year, and you only see 2% return, you'll be searching for a new agent. Thats why agents don't do it.
But what stops a real estate agent from warning you that interest rates are gonna go up? We do this all of the time. Some of us do it for good reason and others do it to coerce you into hurrying a decision. In reality, interest rates are at record low levels and if I tell you they are going up (they do everyday, rates are very volatile) and you've locked yours, then I'm a hero - but if they go down, no one remembers the warning. Very little risk for the agent.
Big Speculation vs. Real Trends
Real Estate Development and Building is BIG business and like any big business, decisions have to be made on certain facts. Generally, those facts are based on past trends that have been compiled year after year and studied thoroughly. We've all been sold on the idea that the Dow Jones Industrial Average has gone up over the long term. Many of us have also been told that real estate is a good investment, again, over the long term.
But what about trends that have been established that we can use today, trends that not only represent the long term but also the short term? One trend that a lot of buyers and sellers know is that the winter is a bad time to sell. They're right, sales drop in the fall, bottom out in winter only to rise again in the spring. That's a trend that is widely accepted as fact here in Boise thanks to our 4 distinct seasons.
Bucking The Trend
I know most if not all Real Estate Agents are not willing to publicly make predictions, which is exactly why I am going to do it - because I'm not most real estate agents. I have been looking trends over the past 5 years and have decided to put my neck out there and make some fairly conservative predictions that might help you make better sense of the Boise real estate market.
Predictions for the Boise Real Estate Market
Some of the predictions I am going to make will be:
How Will These Predictions Impact You Or The Market
They won't. At least not significantly. The only immediate or even noticeable impact will be that I will have an answer for you when you ask the question, "What's the market looking like for next month?"
You see, most people buy or sell a house because of a life change of some sort; Marriage, divorce, new job, lost job, relocation, tired of renting, etc., not because they think that in July we will see 456 re-sale sales in Ada County.
Then Why Make Predictions?
In order for me to take the risk of being wrong, I have to study the market, not just copy and paste someone elses' hard work from the Multiple Listing Service (MLS). If I am studying the market and willing to make a prediction, then you should feel confident that I have been studying the market and am competent enough to call myself a professional.
In addition, I can say that these numbers can be helpful for builders or anyone planning a subdivision or anyone poising themselves to make a move into the market. Don't get me wrong, making guesses in real estate is very important, but it has to be done on a case by case basis! Each purchase and sale is unique just as each buyer and seller is unique. Make sure you don't fall into the trap of over analyzing data that doesn't apply to your circumstances.
Disclaimer
Since we don't know for certain what tomorrow holds, and that we could see a total economic collapse, a 3rd World War or even a Meteor hitting the Earth, then there is potential for my predictions to be wrong. In which case, please revert back to the trend that over the long term, buying real estate will be a good investment with a few hiccups from time to time! And that owning a home has advantages over renting.
Also remember that, in the midst of being wrong at times, your own home is a place where you can safely curl up into the fetal position, suck your thumb and wait for the market to get better, because, based on the trends, you know it will! Have a great day and keep your eye out for my predictions!
It wasn’t long ago that the only homes for sale in Boise for under $100,000 had wheels. Today however, this isn’t the case.
After doing a very simple search for homes in Boise, I found that there are currently (as of 7/14/2009) 118 homes/condos/town homes available for $100k or less!
Sure some of them may be trashed out, but the majority are solid, quality homes. Better yet, at today’s FHA rate of somewhere at or around 5.5%, your payment is most likely lower than what you’re paying for rent.
This is only one example, but if you go FHA, here is the breakdown of your payment:
If you’ve even considered becoming a homeowner and want to stop throwing away your money on rent, now is the perfect time! In conjunction with the $8000 First Time Homebuyer Tax Credit you’re really looking at an opportunity of a lifetime!
Certainly each buyers situation is unique and personal consultation is a must, but if you’d like to just take a swing at the possibility, I’d be happy to get you connected with the right people to get you the right loan and then onto your way to home ownership!
Contact me now with your questions!
First Time Homebuyer Tax Credit: Take One
Free Money for First Time Home Buyers : $8000 Tax Credit
To read this article and others from their author: 118 Homes For Sale In Boise Under $100k: Take A Look
Just last week, someone asked the question, “How much have housing prices dropped in the [Boise] area?” The context of the question was mostly with regard to the housing boom time frame which began in or around 2004.
I thought I would share my answer since it took me some time to dig up the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) Data.
2005: Median Home Price in Boise–$226,820
2006: Median Home Price in Boise–$226,986
2007: Median Home Price in Boise–$230,290
2008: Median Home Price in Boise–$215,495
2009: YTD –$215,499
Basically, I took the yearly MLS Ada County (Boise, Meridian, Eagle, Kuna and Star) Stats and extracted the Boise Stats out; that’s the total.
I work for John L. Scott; one of the larger marketing companies in the Boise Area who has represented a very large number of new construction and resale homes through out Canyon and Ada County. We keep a very good set of numbers and we try to help determine total annual transactions by following the trends we see on an annual basis. If you’d like to see a very comprehensive spreadsheet of these stats, please feel free to let me know.
Just an FYI (disclaimer: stats not final) as of July 2nd, the reported MLS numbers for Sold single-family homes in Ada County for the month of June is 443 (re-sale) units compared to June 08′ which was 397 for a 12% gain.
This is now 6 straight months of positive increase over 2008. While we haven’t seen significant price increasing, in fact in certain areas, quite the opposite, we are seeing more homes being sold than are coming onto the market.
This means nothing in and of itself, but if the trend continues, it will decrease the inventory and lead into a shortage of homes in the area. I’ll give you one guess what will happen then. Yep, price inflation.
A key factor to watch though is interest rates. Rates have been so low for so long, that we are bound to see some sort of inflation. If that happens, the only way the banks are going to respond is by increasing interest rates.
As an interesting cereal box tidbit, over the same time period (2005-Present) the total loss in median real estate value in Boise was 5%…the Dow lost 25%. Interesting perspective eh?
For more real estate stats for your favorite areas, shoot me an email!
To read this article from its really cool blogsite: Real World Question: How Much Have Home Prices Dropped In Boise?
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