Buncombe County Residential Sales Year over Year by Month Comparison
Single family homes includes, homes, condos, town homes, as well as manufactured homes on owned land.
Sales were about even, which is a good thing because that number was necessary to barely exceed the total number of sales in 2010 overall. The Days on Market before selling improved, but the selling price was headed in a downward trend.
2 things are showing improvement: the Average List Price and the Month End Inventory. The inventory reduction will be critical to stabalizing 2012 because even at 2385, that suggests we have more than 12 months of inventory right now if no other homes are added.
There is a relationship or a story told by looking at the number of Residential Sales and the Days on Market (DOM) before selling.
In a "healthy" real estate market, the DOM, in our area, would normally be between 80 and 120 days. If the DOM are increasing, as has been the case here lately, it indicates less demand and can result in a general or collective move to reduce prices.
If the number of home sales in a month are also reduced, then it is almost a given that prices must be reduced in order to regain the interest of buyers.
The trend in Asheville/Buncombe County for DOM has been an upward one, but has shown a slight decline in July, and sales have slowed slightly also. The trend in monthly Home Sales has been a downward one overall year-to-date. In fact, we barely increased sales over 2010 by year end.
This has resulted in more price reductions, which has been disappointing, generally, in this market.
We are at record highs for DOM of SOLD homes, about double the "normal".
September 2011
Usually, in a "healthy market", a 6 or 7 month supply of inventory or homes available for purchase is that magic number.
Last year, 2010, there were 2208 homes sold in the Asheville/Buncombe County market. As the chart indicates below, at the end of December, there were just under 2400 homes sitting in inventory.
That would indicate that we have about 1 year and 2 months of inventory to sell, therefore, we are not in the range of a "healthy" market yet. However, this is the lowest inventory in 4 years, so we are beginning to see a balance possibility.
It should be noted, as the chart indicates, the inventory had been reducing. That is mostly because speculators/builders/developers have drastically reduced their building of new homes without a buyer immediately standing ready to purchase. It should also be noted that the winter months always show a reduction in active listings and summer months show the peak.
Early spring begins to indicate to growth of additional inventory. A rapid growth would spell trouble.
The key to determining the health of the market comes in March, April and May, normally the heaviest saturation of new inventory coming on the market. Those months need to remain relatively calm and show restraint. But, regardless, we need to stay below 2500 for an indication of a more stable market.
DECEMBER 2011 Active Inventory
The chart below shows a visual look at the number of Residential units SOLD in Buncombe County in the last 12 months and takes a look back at those sales numbers to the same period one year ago, month by month.
Residential units for this report include Single Family units, Condos, Townhomes, and Mobile homes on owned land.
As you can see, the sales in Buncombe County had an increase in the last 5 consecutive months out of the last 12 compared to the number of sales exactly one year ago.
July showed some strength by having more (+37.4%) sales than July 2010 and the November sales was a real spike. The upward trend is encouraging, but overall we are just now equaling the number of sales we had this time last year.
The number of sales were weak through the spring. We had a more promising stabilization in the summer as our market struggles to gain ground without having prices drop much more than they have been dropping in the last 2 years, which has been a fairly regular downward pace.
NOVEMBER 2011
Buncombe County, NC - September 2011
Buncombe County includes the cities or areas of Asheville, Leicester, Weaverville, Black Mountain, Arden, Skyland, Candler, and Biltmore Forest.
2011 land sales have been mediocre, at best, and it is a signal that the developers, investors and builders are still not yet ready to commit their resources into land until the economy clears out more of the existing home inventories.
If land is NOT selling, then new homes, condos or townhomes are not soon to hit the market. Land sales have stalled here in Buncombe County, and as a result land prices are the best they have been in years (for the buyer's benefit).
290 parcels of vacant land (non-commercial) were Sold in 2010 in Buncombe County with an Average Sold Price of $89,948<. There was an increase in the number of sales over 2009 (259) but the selling price was down a fair amount from last year.
Now is a great time to buy because land values have adjusted in a downward trend. Of course, the risk of waiting to purchase is that once the Asheville market heats up, which it will, the prices on land will increase at a rapid pace because buyers wanting new homes will have a limited supply. Land is irreplaceable and limited and every parcel offers something unique. It rarely depreciates, unlike buildings sitting on the land.
A breakdown of the sales YTD SEPTEMBER 2011 looks like this:
All Vacant Land Sales YTD - 237 Sold with an average Sold Price of $103,339<
1 acre or under - 127 parcels have sold with an Average Sold Price of $66,233<.
1 to 2.99 acres - 71 parcels have sold with an Average Sold Price of $100,338<.
3 to 4.99 acres - 10 parcels have sold with an Average Sold Price of $214,765<>.
5 to 9.99 acres - 12 parcels have sold with an Average Sold Price of $106,075>.
10 to 20 acres - 9 parcels have sold with an Average Sold Price of $254,614<.
Over 20 acres - 7 parcel have sold with an Average Sold Price of $433,343<
There are currently 1985< parcels of any size vacant land on the market in the county with an Average Asking Price of $207,789<.
The Average Asking Price of the 2686< Residential Homes "for sale" in Buncombe County is $405,961<.
Key: < = Decrease > = Increase <> = Same
It is fairly obvious that the limited availability and high cost of vacant land has a great affect on the overall cost of homes in our area.
Disclosure: The data supplied in these reports/charts is researched and compiled by Don Davies, GRI from the Western North Carolina Mountains MLS and may not reflect all real estate activity in the market, i.e. FSBOs, etc.
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Innovation in Real Estate Since 1984. REALSEARCH: Local Market Research for consumers, clients and Brokers. REALSEARCH provides Buncombe County Real Estate Statistics, Trends & Referral services
My history: Innovation in local Real Estate since 1984. 1st Buyer's Agent (Exclusive or Open) in the Asheville area and Western NC (WNC). 1st Discount Listing Service Provider (FiSBO Link) in Asheville and WNC. Established REALSEARCH a local limited research program to aid consumers, clients and Brokers in viewing and understanding the market conditions and trends. In addition, I help Sellers and Buyers find the "best" agent/Broker to work with considering the needs of the client, since I no longer take on "new" clients. Today, I do market research, consulting and am a Referral conduit for Sellers and Buyers. I rarely take new listings or work with new buyer clients. I work primarily as a referral agent for Buyers and Sellers and consultant/researcher for decision makers, developers, contractors, etc .
The benefit, to Sellers and Buyers looking for agents to work with in our market, is I have learned how to determine which agents are truly successful in their field of expertise, in all those years of my experience in this market As a result, where I can be of the most assistance to a Buyer or Seller is to guide the Buyer or Seller in the "right" direction in their choice of the agent they may decide to work with. I refer you to the most qualified agents among the masses of the "old -timer" established, the newbies, the good ones and the ones that may best be suited for the particular needs of you, the client. I also help you avoid considering the agents that may not deliver the services you are expecting. All this is done through my research of the history of the agents best suited for the job based on their past production and legacy. There is NEVER a charge to the Buyer or Seller for the referral. The receiving agent pays my fee from their commission, when a sale is completed. For Sellers, the referral I make is based on the price range of the property, the location, the time frame desired to sell, and to an extent, the personalities of the parties. There are agents who think they are "multi-talented", but today, agents are no longer all things to all people. There are agents that specialize in, or just plain do better with homes under $250,000. There are agents that specialize in homes from $200,000 to $500,000, those that only do well if the home is over $450,000, those that don't do much outside the city limits, those that prefer only new homes, etc. I sort through all of that to pinpoint the one best suited for the job based on the facts, not hyperbole. For Buyers, the referral is based on the longevity of the agent and the background necessary to truly appreciate the special relationship a buyer and the agent should have. I avoid any agent that believes in dual agency as the "best" solution to helping buyers and sellers. Buyers and Sellers are adversaries and the agent needs to understand that the buyer should be given every fact to put that buyer in the best negotiating position possible based on the facts and knowledge of the market. A great buyer's agent should be a great researcher, not a bulletin board reader. The referral that I make is not based on a "buddy" system! It is based on the pure facts resulting from an MLS search of the sales in the area of interest of the client. It is my job to see who is doing what in the marketplace using my research skills. If you need to know which of the 1,400 Asheville agents might be the best agent for you, give me a call or email. It costs you nothing unless YOU pick the wrong agent without having a little help. Now, with that said, sometimes even the "best" will not give you exactly what you had hoped for, but we will try to find the "best" suited to your needs. www.asheville.com for the latest in "Things to do in Asheville."
REALSEARCH 
Market condition statistics, especially current trends, can be very useful to some buyers and sellers. Since market conditions affect how we market and, the expectations we have, I do a great deal of statistical research (not just 3 listing CMAs) to help my clients, the local newspaper, the Chamber of Commerce, other brokers, developers, builders and clients of other agents, etc. with the research they find necessary. As a Realtor, I find many fellow Realtors, because it can be time consuming and tasking, do not pay a great deal of attention to in-depth statistics and trends.
That is where REALSEARCH comes in.
This research service, for both real estate professionals and the general public, compiles the data that is a roadmap into the market conditions in Western North Carolina (specializing in, but not limited to Buncombe County/Asheville), for at least two years back (can go back to 2001 for data collected to date), on a monthly basis (some research is done weekly) for Buncombe County single family residential real estate market, which includes single family homes, condos, townhomes, and mobile homes on owned land.
This is NOTa "Crystal Ball" approach and is not a forecasting program, but rather a gathering of the statistics gained from the North Carolina Mountains Multiple Listing Service (WNC Regional MLS). It is designed to show trends. It provides data about the number of Active listings (weekly), as well as the number of Listed, Pending, Sold and Expired (monthly). The "Average List Price" and the "Median List Price" and "Days on Market"(DOM) are displayed. The "Year to Date" number of "Sold" compared to a year ago and the percentage difference is recorded.
The Asheville/Buncombe County reports are provided in Windows format on Excel (data and charts) and Word. Please see the following for fees for existing reports: Market Research Tools and Reports for Buncombe County Real Estate Professionals. Customized research is also possible on an hourly basis ($75 for 1st hour and $25 per hour thereafter. 1 hour min.)
You tell me what data you need, and I will do the research for you.
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