John Dunham: N Central Austin

Our statistics for MLS Area 2 in February 2009 have a few positive notes that help cancel out the fewer sales. While 08 to 09 total sales are down for the month, they doubled from January 09. Not only did we see more sales, but the average days on market and sales price also increased. A few points to watch as we head into the busier Spring / Summer seasons. Stay tuned.........

MLS Area 2 February Statistics - data from ABOR

Month	Jan '08	Feb '08
Number of Sales	21	38
Average Price	$244,247	$227,797
Averge Days on Market	61	71
Month	Jan '09	Feb '09
Number of Sales	12	24
Average Price	$228,325	$240,545
Averge Days on Market	77	52

We've all heard about the test runs happening around Austin and Cedar Park of the new diesel-electric trains through the middle of the night. Well this past weekend surrounding residents from N Central Austin were able to board and learn about the trains at The Crestview which are scheduled to start running March 31^st.

There was quit a stir in the air, aside from the high winds and rapid temperature drop between leaving my house for coffee and actually arriving at the Crestview Station. The flaw that I learned, and several others, was parking might be a small issue if you live more than a couple of miles away. There were several volunteers flagging us into general parking that most likely will not be available once apartment residence move in and businesses open their doors. However, once aboard I noticed several racks to hang your bicycle if walking to the station is too far.

FARES

Approaching the platform you will find Ticket Vending Machines (TVM's if you want the proper lingo) where you can purchase MetroRail fare tickets. Two-hour passes are available here, or you can purchase a monthly pass at capmetro.org ($36 31-Day Full Fare / Discounts do apply for certain individuals). There are two zones that determine the fare depending on where you catch the train. If you are leaving from The Crestview Station a ‘One Zone' ticket of $1.00 should get you downtown and also valid for specific connector buses. An ‘All Zones' pass of $1.50 would get you from Leander to downtown. (http://allsystemsgo.capmetro.org/capital-metrorail-fares.shtml)

TIMES / SCHEDULES

Right now trains are scheduled to run weekdays from 5:40 to 9:40 a.m. and weekday afternoons between 3:45 and 7:45 p.m. My understanding with talking to volunteers was the trains will travel between 30-35 mph, so this is no high speed European bullet train. But neither is MOPAC at rush hour! (http://allsystemsgo.capmetro.org/capital-metrorail-schedule.shtml)

Wi-Fi

Now instead of recklessly driving down MOPAC reading email on your Blackberry to the office (admit it, you have done this more than once), simply open you laptop and connect to the available Wi-Fi service provided on board.

TRAINS

On board, the trains looked, felt and smelled new! The seats were comfortable and plenty of leg room even for a tall and lanky former swimmer who is accustom to having his knees smashed. They will hold up to 200 passengers, with 108 seats. As mentioned before bike racks are available inside, along with overhead storage racks. Two diesel-electric engines power the trains and reside in the middle of the two cars parked at the station this morning.

(http://allsystemsgo.capmetro.org/capital-metrorail-vehicles.shtml)

All in all residence walking around seemed at least intrigued by the opportunity of the new public transit option. Time will tell on whether or not Austinites jump on board........do you have plans to ride the train?

It was a frigid morning on December 21^st, but the wonderful neighbors from Crestview and Brentwood fought the cold temps and wind to prepare the luminaries along Arroyo Seco for the coming week. Many families arrived to fill collected milk jugs with sand and then space them from South of 2222, all the way up to the Crestview Shopping Center. Approximately 500+ luminaries were created, set out and lit each night with the help of fellow neighbors taking turns during the week of Christmas.

I'm sure the pictures below do not accurately reflect how beautiful it looked walking down the street one night with family to admire the work. If you have additional pictures please post them! I'm a novice at photography, especially at night.

Not long ago the brick wall that shielded residents from back entrance of businesses in the Crestview Shopping Center along Woodrow was just that.... A roughly 6 foot, plain brick wall. Then Brentwood resident Jean Graham had a vision to celebrate the history and character of two great Austin Neighborhoods, Crestview and Brentwood. That kick started the Violet Crown Festival, held in Brentwood Park next to the Elementary School to raise funds for the tile mosaic project. Hundreds of neighbors would eventually help out, and many created their own special tile portraying personal and family history.

The tiles would be installed along the 120 foot long wall recreating fond memories and pulling a community together. Today people can be found daily walking the wall to admire the work Jean, and hundreds more residents, who carefully made and placed tiles. Not only do the pictures tell a story, there is actually a historical account which beautifully fits in amongst the art work. You won't be able to read the print when watching the video below, but make sure you stop to read the grey circles for blurbs of information. I learned Austin's first drive-in theater, Joseph's, opened at Justin Ln and Lamar in 1940!

Here is a short video, with poor production, walking from the South end to the North end of this beautiful masterpiece. But don't take my word, swing over to the Little Deli for lunch and walk the wall before heading back to the office.

A recent NY Times article posses the question that since we are 12months deep into the recession, is now the time to seriously consider jumping into the real estate market? What seems to resonate with many people is the formal announcement the nation is in a recession, not that it celebrated a one year anniversary in December. And we are bombarded with 24hr online and cable tv news reports about this fact. But walk with me through some of our hardest times in history.

CNN Money reported earlier this month some historical data when trying to judge how long this recession will last. I don't think anyone will argue this time is unique with Wall Streets meltdown, a deflated housing bubble and a teetering auto industry. The article makes note of several key factors in previous recessions:

- 1981-82 lasted a longer-than-average 16 months and pushed a 10.8% unemployment rate. The current 6.5% nationwide unemployment would have a ways to go before reaching double digits. And Austin seems to be a bit of an anomaly with slightly less than 5% unemployment.

- 1973-75 lasted approximately 16 months as well, drove a 9% unemployment level and was also caused by surging oil prices (think about where oil was this summer and today's prices).

- The Great Depression lasted 43 months from August 1929 - March 1933 with 25% unemployment! The lack of bank deposit insurance also caused massive wealth losses, were today should you have $250,000 stocked away it is FDIC Insured with recent elevated limits.

Are we at the bottom yet, possibly not? And I am certainly not advocating one throw caution out the window. There do seem to be some past baseline indicators to put things in perspective. If the nation runs close to the timeline of the first two recessions above we are nearing a turning point. So consider how long you want to own this home? My experience is most clients stay 4 - 5 years, and NAR reports first time buyers are targeting a 7 + year stay in their new homes.

A report from the Center for Economics and Policy Research, October 2008 estimates potential equity by 2012 if you were to buy now. For Austin - Round Rock scroll to page 16. I'm not going to post what they say about our city because each neighbor reacts differently, but take a look for yourselves and ask if you could handle their prediction.

Once news reports that good times are here again start to play, you might have missed the boat. Call me and we can discuss specific neighborhoods and how they have weathered the recent pullback.

John Dunham is a Residential Consultant w/ Stout Company Realtors who specializes and lives in Brentwood l 512.340.0088 l john@johndunham.com