Barbara Salisbury

Recently Highlands Ranch Metro District received some really good news recently. Standard & Poor's rated our municipal bonds as AA+! We can be proud of our 27 year history of strong financial management.

If you don't own a home here in Highlands Ranch, you may not know that we are no an incorporated city. Instead we are governed by Highlands Ranch Metro District.

According to Standard & Poor's, the rating reflects

1. An almost built-out community which shows strong income and income levels and financial performance and reserves.
2. Being part of the broad and diversified Denver metro area economy with very strong district wealth and extremely strong per capita market value.
3. A uniform and affordable property tax levy.
4. Strong financial performance, very strong reserves, and limited operation pressure or future obligations.
5. A moderate overlapping debt burden with no additional debt plans with plans to pay off all debt in advance of maturity based on the current tax levy.

Highlands Ranch is made up of seven districts which form the Metro District. Recently, voters of six of those districts chose to allow those districts to consolidate to save money and create a better atmosphere of cooperation and commonality. The 5^th District chose to stay as a separate entity although they still are a voting part of the Metro Districts. There is a Metro District Board of Directors with each one representing a different district. Then there is an Advisory Board of Directors and a Metro District No. 5 Board of Directors.

You can subscribe to receive the e-Messenger electronic newsletter for good news, community updates and local resources by sending an email message to info@highlandsranch.org with "Sign Me Up" in the subject line.

Colorado recently started an innovative campaign to lure California companies and individuals to Colorado. Besides newspaper ads and an 80 foot banner towed by a plane over LA expressing Colorado's "love" for California, they actually sent Valentines to corporate executives of some large California corporations.

All of these expressions of "love" are certainly getting attention, if not from California companies, then very much so from California newspapers who had some not so nice things to say about the campaign. The San Francisco Chronicle published an article with the headline, "Rocky Mountain low in Valentine greeting?" in a business column.

Colorado sees the budget crisis in California, the high California taxes, a very weak real estate market and a higher cost of living than Colorado. They think of the 500 new jobs which Charles Schwab Corporation recently announced that they will bring to Denver. Why shouldn't they think that other job movements or even company movements could be in the future for the Colorado economy. After all, Colorado does have a high quality of life, lower living costs and taxes and a well educated workforce to offer. And California just doesn't have an economic climate conducive to expansion.

According to Denver Business Journal, Jack Kyser, chief economist for the LA County Economic Development Corp., says that other states that try to lure California business are missing the point behind what makes California companies so successful which he says is the attitude, a lot of talented people, a whole array of industries and being very open to new things.

It's too bad that Californians can't use that attitude, talent and openness to do something about that horrible deficit. I certainly want to applaud Colorado's unique campaign. What a great message!

We are still seeing very low inventories in the Denver area which will lead to prices starting to turn around. The current inventory for single family and condo units is at 20,492 which is a 19% decrease from February of last year. In past years we have seen double digit percentage increases in the inventory from January to February, but this year's increase was only 8%.

The inventory in the price range from $0 to $250,000 currently stands at 8816 total units. In the last 12 months 27,374 units in this price range closed. This means a meager 3.864 months supply of homes in this range. Prices have already started slowly rising in this price point and we predict that they will probably continue at .15% increase per month or an average of $300 per month for the next 6 months on a $200,000 home. Thus, Denver will experience appreciation in lower prices, however small, for the first time in 4 years.

The inventory from $250,000 to $500,000 is also at a level that will eventually cause prices to go up later this year starting in the summer. At this price point there are 6627 units available. The last 12 months has seen 11,578 units close in this range, meaning we now have a 6.86 month supply of homes. To see prices start to rise we will need to see a 4.5 to 6 month supply. Homes at the $300,000 price will start to see the rise sooner as there are less homes available at that price than there are at the closer to $500,000 price.

As I have said in previous writings, homes above $500,000 have higher inventories and homeowners in that price range are finding it necessary to reduce prices considerably in order to sell. These homes will not start to see prices rise until next year. The opportunity to buy more house than you thought was available is now here for the taking. This is where the deals are and these homes will be superb long term investments. I know of some really great deals above $500,000 that I have seen lately and would love to help someone take advantage of them. Call me if you are interested in seeing them.

The second portion of determining the market conditions is the under contract statistics. As of February 5, 2009, there were 5337 units under contract in the Denver metro area. This is a 15% increase over January. We usually expect 8% to 9% increase in under contract properties from January to February. We are seeing more buyers entering the market because of low rates and low prices. We will track this and hope to see a trend throughout the year of upward numbers in contracts.

February of 2009 is the second highest under contract month recorded in the last 6 years. Here are the February totals from the past 6 years:

2004-4274

2005-4192

2006-5128

2007-5216

2008-5559

2009-5337

The sold data is the lagging indicator. 2017 homes closed in Denver in January, down 21.46% from one year ago. This is probably due to the turmoil in the lending industry and uncertainty about the stimulus. The stimulus is all but done, now, so we should see this closing number start to increase.

Let's look at the reasons for confidence looking into the future of housing in Denver:

1. Job stability in Denver is much steadier than nationally
2. That large number of under contract units this month will start to close in March and April. As we start to see the closed statistics increase, more buyers will feel confident and start to shop for a home so they, too, can take advantage of the low rates, low prices and the new $8000 tax credit.
3. Much has been written by experts and economists in the last couple of months about the stability of the Denver economy over cities in other parts of the country.

What does this mean for buyers and sellers today?

Buyers, as we said above, can take advantage of the lowest rates in 40 years, the low home prices and, for first time homebuyers or buyers who have not owned a home in the last 3 years, the new $8000 tax credit that is a true credit, no pay back.

If you are looking for a great investment, a home in the $250,000 price range will see appreciation this year. Homes above $300,000 will take longer, but are the best deals right now and will see more long term increase.

Sellers moving up from the below $300,000 range to above $300,000 are in the best position. They can sell at a good price and buy low.

Sellers can also consider making their existing home a rental and go ahead with the purchase of a more expensive home. They will see appreciation on the existing rental unit and on their newly purchased home at the same time.

As I have expressed before, make sure your home is the best home in the area and at a fair price. Then, even if you lose a small amount, moving up you will eventually see much more gain on your new home which you have bought for a great price!

Call me if I can be of service to you in learning more about your market in your neighborhood in the Denver area so you can price your home correctly. My number is 303-268-4240 or email me at bsalisbury@prestigerealtygroup.com.

This popular annual series started with the Super Bowl 5K. There are a total of 8 runs, one ½ marathon and three triathlons which will include kids triathlons. There is at least one run per month through November.

These are run/walks so that all ages and abilities can participate. There are other festivities after the races which really make these events a fun family oriented time.

Listed below are the next three runs. You can get tons of information about each and every run at www.highlandsranchrunseries.com.

St. Patrick's Day 5K Run/Walk

A great way to celebrate St. Patrick's Day with all of your family, friends and neighbors. After the race there will be a St. Patrick's Day festival at Town Center

This race benefits the Highlands Ranch Parks and Recreation Foundation. It is a Bolder Boulder qualifier.

Time and place: Saturday, March 21, 2009 beginning at 9 am at Town Center.

Online Registration: $25

Pre-race Registration at recreation centers: $25

Race Day Registration: $35 (opens 8:00 a.m.)

Race Contact: Parks and Recreation Foundation 303-791-0430

Registration: https://secure.getmeregistered.com/get_information.php?event_id=2214

Heritage/Adventure Run 5K & 10K

The HRCA Heritage 10K is part of the 2009 Colorado Runner Racing Series which is a series of sixteen races throughout the state. Runners are scored based on their finishing place in each race. The winners will be featured in Colorado Runner.

This run takes place on the HRCA Backcounty Wilderness trails and the Douglas County Trails starting at Mountain Vista High School. As part of the series there will be Native American activities, prize giveaways, food and beer.

Date and Time: Saturday, April 11, 2009, 8:30 am

Location: Mountain Vista High School (10585 Mountain Vista Ridge, Highlands Ranch, CO 80126)

Online Registration: $30/5K & $40/10K

Pre-race Walk-in Registration at Recreation Center: $30/5K & $40/10K

Race Day Registration: $40/5K & $50/10K

Registration: Active.com

Beneficiary: Mile High Pow Wow Association

Cinco de Mayo Run 5K & 10K

This is the 3rd Annual HRCA Cinco de Mayo 5k & 10k. It starts at the Recreation Center at Southridge. Afterwards enjoy the Cinco de Mayo activities there.

There is a new 10K added to this run. This run is a Bolder Boulder qualifier.

Date and Time: Saturday, May 2, 2009, 8:30 am

Location: Recreation Center at Southridge, 4800 McArthur Ranch Road, Highlands Ranch, CO 80130

Online Registration: 5k $30/ 10K $40

Pre-race Walk-in Registration at Recreation Centers: 5K $30/
10K $40

Race Day Registration: 5K $40 (Starts at 7:30am) and 10k $50 (Starts at 7:30 am)

Registration: www.active.com

Beneficiary: El Centro Su Teatro

I love being the bearer of good news! There's more good news about Denver. This information is from the Metro Denver Economic Development Corporation.

• Brookings Institution has named Colorado's Front Range as one of 5 "Mountain Megas". These are regions that are becoming the new economic and political centers of the central U.S. This rating is based upon rapid population growth, a well educated workforce and strong infrastructure.
• In it's American's Top States for Business ranking, CNBC named Colorado as the 5^th best state for business. Colorado also ranked 10^th for quality of life and business friendliness and 15^th for workforce quality, access to capital, technology and the overall economy.
• KPMG International named Denver as 9^th among the nation's 21 largest cities in a ranking of business-friendly tax structures.
• Money magazine recently named it's "America's Best Places to Live." Five Colorado cities ranked in the top 50. They were Ft. Collins at #2, Highlands Ranch at #12, Loveland at #33, Westminster at #44 and Longmont at #50. The cities were rated base upon income, diversity, crime rates, and things like sense of community and vibrancy.
• And some great news about Xcel. The Colorado unit of this company ranked #5 out of more than 50 U.S. utilities for the total amount of solar energy included in the power grid. The rankings were from the Solar Energy Power Association.
• Denver is #9 among the nation's top 25 cities for entry level job positions available. CollegeGrad.com released these ratings.
• Colorado ranked 10^th among the 50 states in Information Technology and Innovation Foundation and the Ewing Maron Kauffman Foundation it's "2008 New State Economy Index." Criteria for the ranking looked at support of knowledge-driven, global economies with an emphasis on innovation and entrepreneurship.
• Looking at population growth, job growth and unemployment, and the number of companies listed among the Fortune 100, S & P 500, and Russell 2000, MarketWatch ranked Metro Denver 3^rd of the 50 U.S. cities in the best locations for businesses.
• Even the airport got in on the recognition. Health magazine's December issue rated Denver International Airport 5^th out of the 10 "America's Healthiest Airports." Some of the reasons; a solar energy system, recycling system, and healthy restaurant choices.
• The American Planning Association in it's 10 best 2008 Great Places in America: Neighborhoods report named Denver's Park Hill neighborhood citing it's diversity, sense of community, and "memorable character."

The good news doesn't end there. Take a look at this article in the Denver Post, http://www.denverpost.com/business/ci_11568331