Everybody is very interested in the current real estate market, whether it's investors or the media. Stories abound at the good and bad in the marketplace. The government passed a huge housing bill to help homeowners with the potential short term financial crunch that exists. The bill will basically give homeowners the ability to refinance if they are in a difficult financial situation due to the poor judgement of having obtained a loan that probably shouldn't have been written anyway. This will just be a short term fix. The long term help comes from the local markets themselves.
Let's take a look at the Denver marketplace, because some outstanding numbers are happening before our eyes. Are we totally out of the slower market Denver has experienced for 30+ months? No, but Denver looks good for the long term. Here's why!
Inventory in the month of August was 26,864 units for single family and condominiums. This is a reduction of 4,461 units from one year ago or a 14.24% decrease in homes on the market year over year. Anytime you have inventories continue to decrease, prices will increase. August of 2008 is also the first time in 5 years that the inventory of active listings decreased from July to August. See below how inventories have changed in August of each year.
2004 -1441 increase
2005 -707 increase
2006 -56 increase
2007 -423 increase
2008 -119 decrease
Clearly, the Denver real estate market is experiencing reductions in active listing numbers. This trend historically would reduce during the fall and winter, but rarely does it ever decrease in the summer months. When the housing market hits 22,000 units, the supply will not meet the demand. In looking at sold data, we can justify this number as the benchmark by which housing prices in Denver will go up.
Sold data has lagged behind the other indicators for more than 2 years, but appears now to be poised to start to increase year over year. See below the details of the sold data change from June to July of each year.
June 2004 -5769, July -5221
June 2005 -5646, July -5290
June 2006 -5379, July -4001
June 2007 -4848, July -4595
June 2008 -4287, July -4433
As the numbers indicate, 2008 was the first July to experience a rise in sold data over June in 5 years. One month hardly makes a trend , but this is the data we believe will show the Denver market having some long term trends positively affecting the housing market.
If we were to annualize the sold data for 2008 based upon the July figures, the projections show the total number of sold properties to be 44,736 for the entire year of 2008. If the listing inventory hits 22,000 units as a medium level, the Denver market would have a 5.9 month supply of homes. Hence, the marketplace will see appreciation when this occurs. Our best crystal ball suggests this will be in the first half of 2009.
Of course, this is for the overall market including all price ranges. As I stated last month in this newsletter, we are already at 4-5 months of inventory in the $0-$250,000 price range and have seen stabilizing of the prices, bidding wars and decrease in days on the market in this price range.
The number of properties Under Contract in the market stands at 7306 as of August 4, 2008. This is up 476 units over 2007 or a 6.9% increase in the number of properties yet to close. This figure indicates that the number of closings in August should exceed the August closings of 2007.
Homes priced above $750,000 have not experienced the same inventory drop nor increase in sold data as below this price level. We can attribute the slower upper end market to difficulties in obtaining financing and large levels of inventories. This price point takes time to get to a more robust market and will do so when the lower price points start to see appreciation. The more appreciation homeowners see from $0-$500,000, the more buyers will have equity to buy into the upper end market.
Free concerts, doggie events, free movies, senior luncheons, art festivals, wine tastings and amateur nights, do any of these interest you? If they do, I hope you live in Highlands Ranch, Colorado because all of these are taking place in the next month in Highlands Ranch and Lone Tree.
One of the events will be taking place in Lone Tree, the neighbor to the east of Highlands Ranch. On August 16 the Lone Tree Recreation Center, 10249 Ridgegate Circle is sponsoring "Open Mic Night" for all of you wan-a-be performers. Music, skits, juggling and more are allowed and prizes will be awarded. The event is FREE, but performers must register. Call 303-708-3513 for registration or information. The event will take place from 7 to 10 pm on August 16th.
"Film in The Park" is back in Highlands Ranch! Bring your blanket and the family for these FREE movies at Civic Green Park. Here's the schedule:
Friday, August 1, "Bee Movie"
Friday, August 8, "Shrek the Third"
Friday, August 15, "Surf's Up"
All films start at 8:15 pm.
Are you interested in decorating your home with local art? Then don't miss the Highlands Ranch Arts Festival and Wine Tasting on August 9. Many local artisans will be featured along with their creations. Hands-on art activities will entertain the kids and the whole family will enjoy the food. Admission is FREE. As part of this festival Highlands Ranch Wine Sellars conducts a wine tasting. You may purchase advance tickets for the wine tasting for $17 if you are a HCRA member or $20 if you are not. Call 303-791-2500 to purchase tickets or for more information. The day of the event tickets will be $20. Proceeds from ticket sales will benefit the Highlands Ranch Community Scholarship fund. This combination event takes place on August 9th from 9 am to 6 pm at Town Center, 9288 Dorchester St.
Doggie Events
The Neighborhood Resource Program is sponsoring Dog Daze of Summer on August 16th at the east end of Redstone Park, 3280 Redstone Park Circle from 9 to noon. Bring your leashed dog to enjoy doggie vendors and participate in the best dressed or best trick events. Call 720-240-4909 for more info.
What a way to end the summer, a Doggie Splash day! Dogs will take over the outdoor pool at Westridge. It will be a day of making friends, cooling off and practicing their swimming for Highlands Ranch dogs who participate. No leashes required at this event! Some breeds may not be allowed and the HRCA reserves the right to refuse any dog for any reason. The cost is $5 each for dogs of members and $10 for non-member dogs. The splash will take place from 10 am to 2 pm. Call 720-240-4909 for more information.
Every month seniors in Highlands Ranch get together for a Senior Luncheon. The next one will be on August 13th from 12 - 2 pm in the Senior Lounge at the Southridge Recreation Center. To RSVP call 720-488-5251. The fee varies.
Kids 5th through 8th grade don't miss the next Ranch 'N' Roll at the Northridge Recreation Center from 7 to 11 pm on August 9th. Here kids have a safe and fun place to "hang-out." Activities include, but are not limited to:
Inflatables such as Human Bowling Night
Interactive games such as Quiz Night and Trivial Pursuit Nights
DJ
Dancing
Video game Tournaments
Food and beverage for purchase
And more!
Call 303-471-8818 for more information.
Now here's information on the next performances for Culture-on-the-Green,
August 14 performance features Opie Gone Bad.
August 22, features Groove Society.
Performances start at 6:30 pm and last until 8 pm at Civic Green Park
Bring a picnic dinner!
For more information on either performance call 303-791-2500. You can find more information on any of the Highlands Ranch events at www.hrcaonlin.org.
An annual fun family attraction in Douglas County, Colorado is the Renaissance Festival. It is currently happening each Saturday and Sunday through August 3 in Larkspur on the southern edge of Douglas County.
Authentically dressed performers are on the 7 different stages as well as throughout the village at the Festival. You might run into royalty or peasantry. Your path may cross that of jousters, jugglers, minstrels, or maidens all very effective in interactive theater.
Over 200 master artisans display and actually create their fine arts and crafts in front of you. Their ancient crafts include glassblowing, pottery, jewelry, wood working, blacksmithing, leather working and others.
Bring your appetite! You'll enjoy renaissance turkey drumsticks, steak on a stake, roasted corn, Leonardo Da Vinci meatball sandwich, artichokes, sausage on a stick and more. The finest ales and drinks are served.
Fun for the children can be found in the Children's realm with fun activities. There are games and rides for everyone!
The Festival is open whether there is rain or shine. The parking is FREE. Festival times are 10 am to 6:30 pm. Go to www.coloradorenaissance.com for directions or info.
The Renaissance Festival website say "over 500 years of family fun awaits all that enter the realm of the Colorado Renaissance Festival, where pleasure reign and merrymaking is the rule."
Shakespeare comes to Douglas County, Colorado in many forms this July. As You Like It, one of his earliest romantic comedies, is the main attraction performed on July 24-26 at Civic Green Park, next to the Highlands Ranch Library. Here's the best part. It's FREE! Just bring your outdoor seating and join us at 7:30 pm for a story of families, hurt by jealousy and desire, who experience a series of mistaken identities and hilarious events and, yet, are drawn together by brotherly love. Recommended for ages 12 and older.
Would you like to go behind the stage and get a behind-the-scenes look? You can. Just show up at the Picnic Pavilion at Civic Green Park at 6:30 pm, any night July 24 - 26. Murray Ross, the director, will be your host back-stage during the performance. It is FREE and there is no registration required.
The staff of Denver Center Theatre Academy brings Shakespeare's work to life for kids in a workshop just for them. The staff uses character-work, improvisation and text analysis to help the kids learn. These events are FREE, but registration is required. The workshops start at 6:30 pm and are at these locations and dates:
Highlands Ranch Library, Tuesday, July 15
Neighborhood Library at Lone Tree, Monday, July 14
Parker Library, Tuesday, July 22
Philip S. Miller Library, Wednesday, July 16
Celebrate Shakespeare during Midsummer Merriment for all ages. This event features Elizabethan era juggling, music, may pole dancing, face painting, and arts and crafts. FREE to all on Saturday, July 26, 10 am to noon in Civic Green Park next to the Library.
Local film critic Walter Chaw hosts a screening of Kenneth Branagh's adaptation of As You Like It (2006, PG) on July 21, 6:30 pm at the Library. Registration is required.
Come join us at any or all of these great happenings. For more information on these or any of the library activities go to www.douglascountylibraries.org.
And residents of Highlands Ranch, CO love them even more, it seems. What kind of sports are there that are starting in the next month in which you can participate in Highlands Ranch?
Horseback riding is available for all ages from 5 years at Stockton Plum Creek Stables. Classes are offered for kids ages 5-14 years. Visit www.stocktonsplumcreek.com for more information.
Basketball classes and camps are starting now for ages 3-14.
Coed Youth Dodge Ball Tournament is July 21st.
Flag Football class is available for ages 6-8 starting August 2nd.
Hockey League play starts July 26th.
Indoor Lacrosse Clinic for ages 6-14 will run July 22 through July 29.
Children from the age of 4 to 17 can take Tennis lessons starting on August 4th.
Tennis camps for youth 7-13 years start today and again on July 21 and 28. Adult Tennis lessons and drill classes are ongoing and adult leagues fall schedules begin in July.
Little Squirts Sports Camp for ages 7-11 starts July 21st.
Tumbling Camp for ages 3-6 takes place every Tuesday or Thursday through the end of August.
A variety of Water Fitness Programs are ongoing for ages 14+.
Snorkeling, Scuba and Springboard Diving sessions for youth starting as low as age 6 are ongoing in July. Call Gobe Divers at 303-734-4623 for more information.
For more information on any of these acitivties or to register go to www.hrcaonline.org.
I am a realtor in Highlands Ranch, CO for Prestige Real Estate Group. I am also a mother of three and have 13 wondereful grandchildren. I enjoy decorating, gardening, reading and traveling.
ActiveRain Corp. is not responsible for the accuracy of the site's content (which is written by members of the ActiveRain Real Estate Network) and does not endorse the views of the real estate agents, mortgage brokers, and others listed here.
Powered by the ActiveRain Real Estate Network
© 2009 ActiveRain Corp. All Rights Reserved
