Barbara Salisbury

Culture on the Green, an annual series is in full swing. Held every summer, these FREE fun family events are held at once a month at the Civic Green Park on Ridgeline next to the library.
The next performance will be July 18, 6:30 - 8 pm. and will feature The Mile Hi Banjo Society. Bring your blanket and a picnic dinner if you like, but no dogs allowed.

Another popular annual summer series is the Summer Concert Series held at Highland Heritage Park beside the Post Office at University and Quebec. The next three concerts will feature:
The Nacho Men on July 10th,
Michael Friedman Jazz Quintet, Jul 17th,
Chris Daniels and the Kings, July 24th.
Bring our blanket. Admission is FREE and no dogs allowed.

Farmers Market continues every Sunday thru October from 10-2 pm at Town Center, 9288 Dorchester St.

Rodeo in the Ranch is coming Saturday and Sunday, July 12 & 13. It is a true western rodeo with bareback riding, saddle bronc riding, bull riding and more. The kids get to participate also in the Mutton Busting and Chicken scramble events for kids. The location for the rodeo will be next to Town Center Square at 9288 Dorchester St. Tickets are $10, $5 for children and free for children 2 and under.

Have you ever been on a Hayrack Rides or Hayride as I have always called them? You really don't know what you have missed! Get on board for the Old Fashioned Hayrack Ride coming on July 18, 6:30-8:30 pm and finish the evening with a fire and roasted marshmallows. There will also be pony rides for the kids. Check www.hrcaonline.org for pricing.

Summer is exciting and busy in Highlands Ranch. Besides these special events there are lots of classes at the recreation centers, swiming in one of the 8 pools at the recreation centers, working out in the four gyms, jogging or biking the miles of trails, a plethora of summer camps, soccer, baseball and other league play, events and classes at the Library (see my blog "Summertime at the Highlands Ranch Library"), and, if you can manage a little time left over from all of that, you can go to the mountains to hike, camp, bike, fish, just enjoy the scenery or gamble in one of the three mountain gambling towns: Black Hawk, Central City or Cripple Creek.

For more information on any of the Highlands Ranch activities and events mentioned above go to www.hrcaonline.org. For more information on the gambling towns go to http://www.coloradocasinos.net. For more information on Colorado mountain activities go to http://www.colorado.com/colorado-section.php?pageid=130&tid=1430&menuid=1.

I gotta go now! I have to get to my Indian cooking class! Have fun this summer!

There are classes for everything and everyone through the Highlands Ranch Community Association and these are the ones available in the next month.

CAMPS:

KidzArt, Ages 5-12, June 16-20

Westridge Drop-In Camp, Ages 5-12

Eastridge Discovery Camp, Ages 5-8, 2 field trips and 1 special activity per week

June 16-20, The Great Outdoors, visit Douglas County Open Space and 4-Mile Historic Park

Southridge Adventure Camp, Ages 9-13, visit a new place everyday

June 16-20, Thrill Seekers! Visits to theme parks such as Boondocks and Elitch

KID'S CORNER:

Friday Night Out, Ages 2-12, includes dinner, movies, crafts and more. June 13

Lunch Bunch, Ages 2-6, Mondays through Fridays, 12:00 - 3:

Pilates Toties, Ages 1-6, daily 9:30 - 10:30 while Mom works out.

Kreative Kids, Ages 3-5, June 17

Celebrate Father's Day, Ages 3-5, June 12, create a gift for Dad

Father's Day Surprise, Ages 3-6, June 14, create a gift for Dad

Splash Into Summer, Monday only, Tuesday only, Tuesday through Thursday, and Friday classes which include swimming, crafts, songs, games, clay projects, films and tumbling, 9:30 - 12:30 or 1 pm, offered at different recreation centers.

Handwriting, various classes for ages 3-10, June 17- July 29

AQUATICS:

Adult and Water Fitness programs, from beginners to advanced, various days and times during week

DANCE:

Tap and Clogging Combo Class, Ages 18+, June 15 - July 20

Oh my goodness! I didn't realize myself that there were this many learning opportunities in Highlands Ranch! This is just the current classes. There will be future classes on cooking, dancing, swimming, gymnastics, Tae Kwon Do, languages, art and more! I hope this helps you all find lots of activities for this month. For those of you who do not live here yet, these are even more reasons to move here as soon as you can! And I can help you with your move. Just email me at bsalisbury@prestigerealtygroup.com or check out my website at www.barbarasellshighlandsranch.com.

I hope to update you with new events, sports and learning opportunities again in a couple of weeks.

What sports do you like, tennis, basketball, baseball, kickball, hockey, soccer, lacrosse, cheerleading, golf, football, track, volleyball, swimming, horseback riding? Don't worry, we have them all in Highlands Ranch.

The Highlands Ranch Community Association brings all of these events to us. You can get more information at www.hrcaonline.org on any of these events. You can register for any of the Skyhawks sports at www.skyhawks.com.

Horseback Riding: Stockton's Plum Creek Stables offers rides Wednesdays through Sundays, Memorial Day through Labor Day Weekend. Experience the wilderness around Wildcat Mountain Trails in the Backcountry Wilderness Area.

Basketball:

3 vs 3 Youth Basketball, ages 8-13.

Skyhawks Basketball, ages 6-12

Baseball:

Skyhawks Baseball, ages 6-12

Hockey:

High School Inline Hockey League start in June. Contact sberninzoni@hrcaonline.org to find your team.

Soccer:

Skyhawks Soccer, ages 6-12

Lacrosse:

Boys' Lacrosse Camp, grades 1-12

Girls' Lacrosse Camp, grades 1-12

Skyhawks Lacrosse, ages 6-12

Cheerleading:

Skyhawks Cheerleading Camp, ages 5-9

Golf:

Skyhawks Beginning Golf

Football:

Adult Flag Football Leagues, men's, co-ed and women's teams

Skyhawks Flag Football Leagues, ages 5-12

Track and Field:

Skyhawks Track and Field, ages 6-12

Hershey Track and Field Meet, Thursday, June 5, 5:15 pm, ThunderRidge High School Track, ages 9-14, registration deadline May 30, FREE!

Volleyball:

Skyhawks Volleyball Camp, ages 7-14

Swimming;

Swim lesson for ages 6 months to 14 years are ongoing so you can enroll anytime. They take place at all recreation centers except Northridge.

Youth Swim programs in competitive swimming are graduated by age and take place year round.

Classes in Snorkeling, scuba and springboard diving are offered May through August at Northridge Recreation Center

Whew! I sure am tired just thinking about all those sporting events! Let me see if I can find some Gatorade! Be sure you bring plenty of water or other to drink when you participate. Dehydration is easy in our climate!

Check www.hrcaonline.org for dates, locations and fees for any of the above activities. Softball, tennis, T-ball, curling, and some golf activities are already started or finished for the spring, but look for them again late summer or fall.

From data supplied by Metrolist

As you can see from the information below growth this spring in Denver area home listings is slower than in past springs.

Active Listings at the Beginning of May of Each Year:
2004 -- 23,879
2005 -- 24,991
2006 -- 30,946
2007 -- 28,885
2008 -- 27249

However, this small increase in inventory will be good news for all homeowners as the year goes on, since there is a buyer pool that is entering the marketplace today that will continue to absorb the inventory. This will become more evident later in this article as we look at contract numbers. But, as we look at the total number of sales in 2007 for a pace of home sales, we see 45,616 homes sold. If we divide that into the current inventory of 27,249 we get .59 or 59% and then multiply that times 12 months, we learn that we have a 7.16 month supply of homes for sale. Historically, 6-8 months is a normal market. And history has shown us that the market tends to be a buyers market when the supply exceeds 8 months and to be a sellers market when the supply goes under 6 months.

Sold Data

The Denver market is still experiencing a slower sold market versus previous years in April. Why is that?

Sold Properties in April of Each Year:

2004 -- 4609
2005 -- 4362
2006 -- 4354
2007 -- 4363
2008 -- 3763

We are seeing many properties take longer to close for a number of reasons.

First, the mortgage crisis has put a whole new slant on how a buyer obtains a loan. In the past, buyers who could rightfully afford a home could be approved in less than 14 days, because many of the banks has plenty of staff and lending guidelines were not as tight. Today, most lenders have reduced staff and guidelines are very tight and require more documentation and research and, thus, time. It is easily taking 4 and sometimes 8 weeks to get approved and funded.

Second, there might be a third party involved to approve the sale as in short sales or bank owned properties. Everything takes longer in these types of sales which are plentiful today.

Third, there are fewer vendors such as inspectors and appraisers servicing the real estate industry to call upon for service. The ones who are still with us are being required to be more prudent in their research, documentation and calculations which lengthens the process.

Homes That Are Under Contract As of May of Each Year

Homes Under Contract at the Beginning of May of Each Year:

2004 -- 6820
2005 -- 7902
2006 -- 8335
2007 -- 7415
2008 -- 7926

You can clearly see from the under contract properties, there is a backlog of properties that will be closing in the future and will change the "sold" trend. The leading indicator that the market has turned in a positive direction is the number of homes that are placed under contract and are set to close sometime in the future. Historically these properties take 30-60 days to close, but, due to the real estate circumstances listed above, we are seeing quite a back log of properties ready to close. When the market has had 50% more properties under contract than have closed in the previous month this has indicated in the past a stronger housing pattern. Currently with 7926 homes under contract and 3763 closed in April that represents a 52% ratio between the two numbers. A good sign the closings will start to follow.

The Denver housing market has 6.89% more homes under contract today than in May of 2007. When you consider what conditions the market has experienced with the challenges in financing and buyers having to deal with elongated contract periods, this is a very good sign for months to come.

Looking from April to May of each year will show that 2008 is starting to resemble 2005, in growth. If that trend were to continue, the Denver marketplace will be experiencing appreciation later this year and definitely into 2009, as 2005 was the single highest real estate market in volume and number of closings ever in Denver.

Properties Under Contract from April to May of Each Year:

2004 -- April, 6501, May 6820
2005 -- April, 7270, May 7902
2006 -- April, 7778, May 8335
2007 -- April, 7211, May 7415
2008 -- April, 7409, May 7926

The positive growth in the number of homes under contract follows some of the better growth years from April to May. These numbers set the Denver marketplace back on track to outperform national markets, so don't believe all you read about the negative versions of the future of real estate. It is my belief that real estate in Denver is about to make a statement in the upcoming months that will be the envy of many national markets!

In an article of 4/07/08, Matt Woolsey of Forbes magazine points out four factors that are widely seen as affecting the housing market for sellers: job growth, amount of new construction, vacancy rates and credit availability. Considering these factors, Mr Woolsey goes on the list the top ten cities for sellers of the country's forty largest metro areas. He lists Denver as number seven because of a 49% drop in construction starts and a 2% rise in new jobs. Check out the article at www.forbes.com/realestate/2008/04/07/homes-sellers-cities-forbeslife-cx_mw_0407realestate.html

Lets talk about prices. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have not in the past participated in the jumbo market. They are preparing to do that now, since it is legally permissible to do so. As they start to offer jumbo loans it is expected that interest rates will be more favorable in that market. The housing market above $1 million has the highest backlog of inventory for sale, in some areas of Denver representing 12 + months to 24 + months. Once more jumbos are being offered and at better rates, we can expect to see a lift in median home prices which were artificially depressed due to very few jumbo loans and very few expensive home sales. This is the opinion of Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist, in article at www.realtor.org/research/reinsights/forecast.

Mr. Yun also points out in an another article at www.realtor.org/RMODaily.nsf/pages/News2008040801?Open that the 30 year fixed-rate mortgage rate should average 5.8% in the second and third quarters of 2008 and then rise to an average of 6.3% in 2009. So all of that pent up demand for a new home that many buyers are squelching while they wait for cheaper prices may not be wise to continue squelching because of a predicted upturn in prices, plus, they will probably pay even higher interest rates if they wait to buy later.

As far as sellers, what are they to do? If they wait to get a better price when prices go up, they will also pay a higher price for their new home. And they will probably not get as low an interest rate as they could get today. And consider this, if prices go up, say 1% in the next six months, wouldn't it be better to be holding a higher priced home during that rise?