This week we take a look at last months numbers and see what that might tell us about the market in March. We'll include advice for buyers, sellers and investors and even talk about some communities that are starting to look like the slow market is catching up with them.
In this weeks podcast, we take a look forward to the next 30 days by looking back at last months numbers. We will do a quick overview of Santa Clara County and then a closer look at the communities of Los Gatos and Morgan Hill.
We will then move on to try and get an idea of what buyers, sellers and investors should be thinking right now. Where should they be shopping? What should sellers be doing to have the best chance of getting their home sold this month? Listen in for all the info.
Los Gatos is one of those communities that manages to perform well, even during what is usually a down market for the rest of Santa Clara County. However, even in Los Gatos, inventories are at very high levels. The desireability of the community and what it has to offer is undeniable and has clearly played a part in its continued success despite what is going on elsewhere. The following is a summary of the overall activity. Summary Of Comparable Properties
Single Family Residential
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| What does that mean? We are seeing things that are acting differently than we would expect for the time of year and current conditions. The last time that happened was when the market started its turn in favor of buyers in our local market. So, the only question to be answered is, what will the market transition into? Looking at the numbers, it may mean things starting to stabilize, but that still leaves us with an unbelievable inventory that is only going to be fixed by more buyers taking them off the market. Read on for all the numbers. Supply And Demand As we look back at the month of October in past years, the trends are clear. Inventory has been on the rise each year since 2004. In fact, inventory is up 12.4% in October 2007 from the same time in 2006. This gives us a total of 299 homes currently on the market in October. While inventory has been increasing, sales over the same period are down by 46.9% for a grand total of 17 homes sold in October 2007. Finally, we see that the number of homes listed in the month also increased by 38.9% compared to October 2006.A total of 100 homes were listed for sale in October 2007 - nearly a THIRD of the current inventory! All of these facts contribute to our steadily increasing inventory.  Right now, we have over 17 months worth of inventory, assuming sales remain constant. When we look at the same numbers, but over the last few months, we can easily see the seasonal changes that come with the changing seasons. From September to October, we saw the inventory increase by 7.9%. Over the same period, we saw sales decrease by 5.6% We continue to see increases in inventory, but when we look at the historical numbers, we at least see the rate of increase has slowed. Also, in the short term, we see some dips and changes in the inventory that are not exactly in line with what we have seen in the past. These tend to show a flattening that may be the first indicators that the market is leveling out - at least as far as inventory is concerned. The big question is whether or not buyers are going to enter the market in great enough numbers to bring down the existing inventory of homes. There is no question that buyers are in the drivers seat, but many seem to be holding out for the "bottom" of the market. My feeling is that there will be a large number of people who look back on these times and kick themselves for not having purchased a home. Home Prices Unlike the county in general, home prices have not continued to increase when compared to last year at the same time. When compared to October 2006, we can see that the average price of a home in Morgan Hill has decreased by 5.7%. In other months, we have seen much larger decreases when compared to the same time last year. This is another reason to suspect that the market is beginning to flatten. Since we are heading into a time of year when the market tends to be at its worst, it is interesting to see this slow down in the decrease in average home price. The average home in Morgan Hill sold for $951,029 in October 2007. The highest priced home sold for $1,479,000 and was located at 3205 Lori Drive. The home was on the market for 88 days. The lowest priced home sold for $550.000 and was located at 16735 Feliz Ct. It took 74 days for that home to sell. Remember that the homes that sell are profoundly outnumbered by those that do not. There are homes on the market that have been out there for hundreds of days. In the more short term look, we see that prices have remained relatively flat. We did see a drop last month, but we recovered from that to the tune of a 25.7% increase in average price. Only 17 homes sold in October. The median tells us that 8 of those homes were above $885,000 and 8 were below that point.
Days To Sell So the good news here is that there is not worse news. But to put this into perspective, this number ONLY tells us how long it took homes that have sold to sell. But for every home that sells, there were about 17 others that did not sell in October 2007. If a sellers wants their home to rank among the solds in this market, they have to be the best at their price point. A complete knowledge of who your competition is right now is the key to selecting the right price to get your home sold. Compared to September of 2007, we have seen the days to sell drop by 7.5%. We would normally expect this to increase at this time of year. However, as I have mentioned, the market does appear to be in transition right now. What it transitions into will only be revealed as we move further into the winter season and on into 2008. |
Well, 2007 is in the can and in this weeks show we take a look back and see what happened. We will compare 2007 to previous years and even try to figure out what the market is going to do in 2008. We will explore the numbers for Santa Clara County and for Morgan Hill.
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The professional choice for Southern Silicon Valley real estate. Check my website for real estate news, analysis and MLS access! Licensed since 1988! AIM:robertsoldit YIM:soldbyrobert
Born and raised in the Silicon Valley area. I started in Real Estate in 1988, fresh out of San Jose State University, and have watched as the market has taken some amazing turns.
I have a great track record of getting the lowest price for my buyers and the highest price for my sellers. I understand that my duty is to represent the best interests of my clients. That means I negotiate hard and effectively to get my client the best deal possible. I know what to watch out for and I am proud of my exceptional record of successfully closing transactions, even when it seemed like everything possible has gone wrong. I pride myself on being a problem solver who can make things happen after others have given up.
Unlike others, I don't claim to "specialize" in an area the size of most states. I specialize in Morgan Hill properties of all types. Of course, I can and do help clients with their needs outside of the area I like to specialize. This includes communities like Los Gatos, Blossom Valley, Almaden Valley, Scotts Valley and my old stomping grounds in Capitola and Aptos. For those areas I don't work in, I will be happy to refer you to an agent who takes their job and responsibilities as seriously as I do.
I concluded a two year sabbatical in London England in 2007. During that time, I remained active as a consultant to those with real estate needs in California while also gaining international real estate contacts to further help my future clients. I now have an international element as part of my standard marketing plan for all the homes I list.
While the bulk of my business has been built on successfully marketing homes for sale, my track record in helping buyers in residential real estate is among the best in the business. Also, I have created helpful software that allows my buyers to track homes they have viewed, rate them, experiment with loan numbers and track all the key aspects of their real estate purchase.
I also have a background in helping both seasoned and new investors locate opportunities ranging from single family home rentals, to multi-unit apartment complexes. I can assist with not only finding the property, but helping in the pre-purchase analysis of the property. I have even developed my own software to help my investor clients analyze investment opportunities.
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More of the same in many ways. However, we have seen some slowing that may indicate that we are heading into another transitional period. 
